Severe Thunderstorm Warning 477, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
320 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS HEAT EXPECTED TOMORROW...

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

SPC Marginal Risk through this evening for storms moving in from the
northwest and developing along the seabreeze fronts. Main concerns
are isolated damaging winds through early tonight. Heat headlines
remain in effect through 7 PM ET. On Monday, highs cool slightly to
the mid and upper 90s. This will knock down heat indices a bit, but
still solidly within heat advisory criteria (108-112F), mainly in
the FL Counties. A heat advisory for Monday will likely be issued
this evening or later tonight. Lower PWAT values work in from the
north on Monday aftn, ranging from 1.3" in SE AL to 1.8" near I-10.
As such, highest PoPs (AOA 50%) are from roughly Valdosta to Panama
City and points southeast. High DCAPE and mid-level winds around 20
knots will support the potential for gusty storms with iso damaging
wind gusts possible Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Hot weather continues as the work week progresses, but relatively
drier air filtering in from the north aims to lower humidity enough
for somewhat less hazardous heat. Rain chances are minimal outside
of the seabreeze zone (afternoon) and marine areas (nighttime/early
morning) during the short-term period thanks to the dry air partly
reinforced by large-scale subsidence associated with a strong ridge
nosing in from the west. Limited convection under this pattern means
high temperatures are poised to soar into the mid 90s (isolated
upper 90s). A larger spread in heat indices is expected from north
to south (100-110 degree range) thanks to a moisture gradient likely
to be in place. Our FL counties stand the best chance to meet
advisory criteria thanks to a more moist airmass influenced by the
Gulf/seabreeze. Overnight lows are mostly in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

The Tri-State area is slated be under a persistent NW flow pattern
for the remainder of the work week thanks to the SW to NE ridge-
trough orientation staying in place across the CONUS. We will have
to monitor for upstream MCS activity each day in addition to normal
seabreeze convection. Otherwise, hot weather continues with highs in
the 90s and triple digit heat indices. Hazardous heat appears likely
once again by the weekend as the trough lifts out and ridge builds
in from the west, so advisory level conditions come back into play.
Excessive heat cannot be ruled out either. Mid 70s for lows
should remain common through the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

The main concern will be VCTS late this afternoon into early tonight
at the terminals, which will likely require some amendments for TSRA
with gusty winds and brief restrictions to IFR possible. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with westerly winds around 5 to 10 kts. Only exception
may be briefly low cigs/vsbys at VLD near sunrise, but low confidence
precludes mention in the TAF attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Favorable boating conditions prevail away from thunderstorms for
which are in the forecast each day. Best rain chances are in the
overnight into morning hours. Additional maritime convection is
possible from inland activity pushing offshore during the afternoon
into evening hours. Generally light west winds persist with onshore
directional changes in the afternoon near the coast via the late
morning/midday seabreeze. Winds become more variable by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the upcoming week.
High mixing heights are expected to lead to high dispersions across
portions of Southeast AL and Southwest GA on Monday. High dispersions
may persist on Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for
the rest of today and tonight mainly along/north of the I-10
corridor thanks to scattered convection this afternoon from the NW
and the seabreeze flourishing within a moist airmass. The risk
spills over tomorrow into the Suwannee Valley. Isolated instances of
flooding may occur during that time frame.

Overall, significant rainfall amounts are not forecast over the next
7 days. Most locations are looking at about one to approaching two
inches. Of course, isolated higher amounts are possible from strong,
and/or slow-moving thunderstorms. Area rivers also remain in good
shape. There are currently no flooding concerns for much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  95  75  98 /  30  60  10  30
Panama City   79  94  79  95 /  30  50  10  20
Dothan        73  95  74  96 /  30  20   0  10
Albany        73  95  74  96 /  40  20   0  10
Valdosta      73  94  74  97 /  50  50  10  30
Cross City    76  93  77  95 /  30  80  30  50
Apalachicola  79  91  79  93 /  30  60  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ028-029-034-128-
     134.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ007>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...IG3

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
406 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ125-127-144-145-302045-
Worth GA-Baker GA-Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-
406 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Dougherty,
northeastern Mitchell, northeastern Baker and southern Worth Counties
through 445 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Turner City to near Baconton to 7 miles
north of Newton. Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sylvester, Albany, Putney, Baconton, Poulan, East Albany, Marine
Corps Logistics Base, Turner City, Walker, Bridgeboro, Radium
Springs, Lockett Crossing, Sylvester Airport, South Albany, Southwest
Ga Regional A/P, Parkerville, Red Rock, Acree, Lester and Crestwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 8372 3137 8394 3133 8422 3140 8441
      3148 8442 3162 8417 3162 8405 3163 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 289DEG 8KT 3158 8408 3145 8420 3143 8437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
409 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ124-126>128-131-302100-
Worth GA-Lee GA-Terrell GA-Irwin GA-Turner GA-
409 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Irwin,
Turner, Lee, east central Terrell and northwestern Worth Counties
through 500 PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smithville, or 9 miles northwest of Leesburg, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Ashburn, Ocilla, Albany, Smithville, Mystic, Worth,
Sycamore, Warwick, Rebecca, Chokee, Stocks, Amboy, Irwinville, Hobby,
Turner Co Airport, Irwinville Airport, Olivers Mill, Neyami and
Century.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8392 3185 8394 3184 8386 3180 8380
      3180 8361 3185 8361 3185 8350 3176 8345
      3176 8339 3161 8323 3163 8401 3165 8399
      3165 8403 3163 8405 3163 8412 3185 8436
      3192 8432 3192 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 289DEG 8KT 3186 8426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
415 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

FLZ017-018-027-118-127-302100-
Coastal Wakulla FL-Coastal Jefferson FL-Inland Jefferson FL-
Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
415 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Wakulla,
southwestern Jefferson and southeastern Leon Counties through 500 PM
EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Woodville to 10 miles east
of St. Marks. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Newport, Cody, Hells Half Acre, Fanlew, Wacissa Springs,
Natural Bridge and Plum Orchard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3016 8419 3038 8419 3035 8395 3019 8395
      3015 8396 3015 8397 3013 8397 3012 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 119DEG 4KT 3033 8408 3022 8405

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73-YOUNG