Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Tallahassee, FL

January 25, 20236 counties in Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jan 25, 2023, 5:30 AM CST for 6 counties in Florida. It was in force for 90 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jan 25, 2023, 5:30 AM CST (11:30 UTC)
Expired: Jan 25, 2023, 7:00 AM CST
In force: 90 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Washington County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jan 25, 3:03 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1164 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 299 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 373 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jan 25, 1:33 AM CST, 3 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 25, 1:33 AM CST, 3 hours 57 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
233 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

A very potent low pressure system is forecast to push eastward
across the region today with strong to severe thunderstorms expected
ahead of it. A surface low currently across southern MS will
continue to move east-northeastward towards the area this morning,
with the associated warm front already pushing onshore the FL
Panhandle. This system is very well dynamically supported with very
strong wind shear and a potent shortwave rotating across the
Southeast US. All the ingredients are present to support strong to
severe thunderstorms as this system moves through, with damaging
winds and tornadoes, some possibly significant, possible across the
area. Wind shear is incredibly supportive with a 70kt LLJ and 0-500m
helicity over 300. The primary limiting factor so far appears to be
available instability, with around 50 to 500 J/Kg forecast for much
of the area. However, if wind shear (especially the very low levels)
remains as high as forecast, this normally meager instability could
very well be enough to produce severe impacts. The greatest chance
for actualizing the severe weather lies just along and south of the
warm front, which has moved onshore the Panhandle and will continue
to push northward through the morning. However far north the warm
front makes it will determine how much of the area can take
advantage of surface-based storms. Areas north of the warm front may
be insulated a bit by a shallow stable layer near the surface.
Storms should begin to push into our Panhandle counties and SE AL in
the next 2 to 3 hours before moving eastward across the region
throughout the day today.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible with these storms, and although
the system will be fast-moving, saturated soils from previous
rainfall may make flooding a bit easier to accomplish. Additionally,
very windy conditions are forecast just ahead of and particularly
behind the cold front. Therefore a wind advisory has been issued for
the area. Cold air will quickly advect overhead tonight with lows
dropping into the 30s for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Dry and cool weather will prevail behind the front on Thursday and
Friday with high pressure building into the area. High temperatures
will cool back into the 50s and 60s with overnight lows ranging from
the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

An active pattern will continue into the long range with another
system expected to impact the area on Sunday into Monday.
Fortunately, this system does not look as strong as the current
system, but a widespread moderate rainfall with pockets of heavy
rain could occur along with a slight chance of thunderstorms. This
system will quickly exit the area on Monday with perhaps another
system arriving by the middle of next week. Temperatures are
expected to rebound back to above average values early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Poor aviation conditions are expected for much of the period with
LLWS, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms, and gusty
gradient winds all expected. Windy conditions are forecast
overnight ahead of the approaching cold front as well as through
the day Wednesday in its wake. Storms ahead of this system will be
strong to severe with gusts near 50-60kt and tornadoes possible
from around 3am across the western zones spreading east through
the day. Conditions improve to VFR again later in the
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Poor marine conditions are expected today with frequent gale force
gusts and a squall line sweeping across the area from west to east.
Gusts with the squall line could exceed 50 knots with waterspouts
also possible. Post frontal northwest winds arrive tonight after the
storms pass and are forecast to subside below advisory criteria by
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to push across the
region today ahead of a cold front, with breezy gradient winds
behind it. After the front, dry conditions are expected for the next
several days with RH values forecast to drop into the 30-40% range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 229 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Pockets of heavy rain with the squall could lead to minor flooding
in poor drainage areas today. Otherwise, a few rivers will remain
near or in action stage for the next several days given the recent
rainfall and expected rainfall today. The next chance of rain after
today is expected to be around Sunday into Monday, and localized
pockets of heavy rain could occur then as well. If heavy rain
materializes with the next system, then rivers would need to be
monitored for possible minor flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  38  56  35 / 100  10   0   0
Panama City   71  40  57  37 / 100   0   0   0
Dothan        69  37  53  30 /  80   0   0   0
Albany        68  37  54  32 / 100  10   0   0
Valdosta      72  38  56  33 / 100  10   0   0
Cross City    77  42  60  35 /  80  40   0   0
Apalachicola  70  41  56  39 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ007>013-108-112.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for
     FLZ014-016-114.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for FLZ015-017>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon
     for FLZ026.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Thursday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GAZ120>126-
     142>145-155>157.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for GAZ147-148-158>161.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ127>131-146.

AL...Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ750-752-770-772.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday for
     GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...DVD

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 25, 3:36 AM CST, 1 hour 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
436 AM EST WED JAN 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N MAGNOLIA BEACH      30.19N 85.73W
01/25/2023  M40 MPH          BAY                FL   MESONET

            GULF COAST STATE COLLEGE WEATHERSTEM.

&&

Local storm report, Jan 25, 3:41 AM CST, 1 hour 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 AM EST WED JAN 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E MACON COMMUNITY PAR 30.49N 84.25W
01/25/2023  M41 MPH          LEON               FL   MESONET

            NORTHEAST TALLAHASSEE WEATHERSTEM.

0439 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S LYNN HAVEN          30.21N 85.65W
01/25/2023  M41 MPH          BAY                FL   MESONET

            AMBIENT WEATHER STATION.

&&

Local storm report, Jan 25, 4:57 AM CST, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
557 AM EST WED JAN 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 WNW BLUE MOUNTAIN BEA 30.35N 86.23W
01/25/2023  M39 MPH          WALTON             FL   MESONET

            ED WALLINE BEACH WEATHERSTEM.

&&

Local storm report, Jan 25, 5:10 AM CST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
610 AM EST WED JAN 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 AM     TORNADO          1 NE GRAYTON BEACH      30.35N 86.15W
01/25/2023                   WALTON             FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CONFIRMED TDS ON RADAR.

&&

Local storm report, Jan 25, 5:20 AM CST, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EST WED JAN 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 AM     TORNADO          4 NNE BUNKER            30.43N 86.05W
01/25/2023                   WALTON             FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CONFIRMED TDS.

0616 AM     TORNADO          3 ESE BUNKER            30.37N 86.03W
01/25/2023                   WALTON             FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CONFIRMED TDS.

&&

Local storm report, Jan 25, 5:27 AM CST, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
627 AM EST WED JAN 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     TSTM WND GST     HENDRIX CROSSROAD       31.13N 85.71W
01/25/2023  M46 MPH          GENEVA             AL   MESONET

            AMBIENT WEATHER STATION.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 25, 1:11 AM CST	Small Craft Advisory	TAE		29 hr
Jan 25, 3:11 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		3 hr
Jan 25, 4:08 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Bay, Holmes, Walton, Washington	97 min
Jan 25, 4:43 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Walton	15 min
Jan 25, 5:01 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Walton	29 min
Jan 25, 5:13 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Bay, Walton, Washington	16 min
Jan 25, 5:35 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		3 hr
Jan 25, 5:42 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Bay, Calhoun, Washington	33 min
Jan 25, 6:22 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Bay, Gulf	38 min
Jan 25, 6:46 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Leon and 2 more	59 min
Jan 25, 7:01 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Jackson	29 min
Jan 25, 7:30 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Calhoun, Liberty	30 min
Jan 25, 7:42 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Wakulla	63 min
Jan 25, 7:46 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Gadsden, Leon, Liberty, Wakulla	74 min
Jan 25, 8:30 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		2 hr
Jan 25, 8:45 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Franklin, Gulf, Leon, Liberty, Wakulla	30 min
Jan 25, 8:54 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Leon	66 min
Jan 25, 9:11 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Franklin, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Wakulla	64 min
Jan 25, 9:24 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Jefferson, Leon	17 min
Jan 25, 9:31 AM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	TAE	Leon	10 min
Jan 25, 9:54 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Jefferson	51 min
Jan 25, 10:14 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Franklin, Jefferson, Leon, Madison, Taylor, Wakulla	61 min
Jan 25, 10:25 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		2 hr
Jan 25, 11:15 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Jefferson, Taylor	60 min
Jan 25, 12:14 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Madison, Taylor	61 min
Jan 25, 12:29 PM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		2 hr
Jan 25, 2:11 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Dixie, Lafayette	49 min
Jan 25, 3:03 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Dixie	42 min
Jan 25, 6:22 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Calhoun, Early, Randolph, Terrell	38 min
Jan 25, 7:23 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Baker, Miller, Mitchell	26 min
Jan 25, 8:12 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Mitchell	48 min
Jan 25, 8:30 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Ben Hill, Dougherty, Irwin, Mitchell, Tift, Turner and 1 more	36 min
Jan 25, 11:44 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Berrien	16 min
Jan 25, 12:46 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Lanier, Lowndes	44 min
Jan 25, 4:03 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Coffee, Dale, Geneva	72 min
Jan 25, 5:07 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston	98 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2023 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.