Severe Thunderstorm Warning 422, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
354 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Widespread showers and storms currently should continue through much
of the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the Florida
counties are getting much of the convection currently, storms
coverage should gradually increase somewhat into the evening hours
across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. While there is a
little less instability across these areas currently, northward
moving outflow boundaries, plenty of solar insolation, and the
remnants of an earlier MCS to the west should at least provide the
spark for more development. Expect this coverage to last into the
evening hours with activity slowly decreasing from sunset into and
just after midnight.

Broad cyclonic flow over a moist tropical airmass in the southeast
US continues on Sunday. The weak vort max that's been lingering
overhead since Friday will weaken and translate east on Sunday but
there will still be plenty of support given the moisture in place
for widespread showers and storms. A weak impulse moving towards the
forecast area in the afternoon will also further spark storm
development in the afternoon. While coverage might not be as high as
we're observing today, rain chances still remain around 60-80%,
especially across our Florida counties. The main concerns with
storms on Sunday will again be flooding given the high preciptable
waters and heavier rains we've seen as of late.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

A transition to a drier and hotter pattern is expected for the
short and long term as ridging to the west builds eastward over
the area. While deep layer moisture remains overhead, this ridging
will help lower rain chances to only isolated or scattered showers
and storms mostly along the afternoon sea breeze. High
temperatures are forecast to climb over the next several days as
well, topping out in the mid to upper 90s around midweek with a
couple spots of near 100 also possible. Heat indices will also
generally stay in the 103 to 110 degree range for most of the
period, and heat advisories may be needed for several days. Low
temperatures may also exacerbate any heat issues by remaining in
the mid to upper 70s, leaving little if any opportunity to really
cool off during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period though
occasional periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in
thunderstorms this afternoon. Rain chances will be high with
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across FL terminals
through at least 00z. Activity will transition into our AL/GA
terminals by later this afternoon and likely linger into the
00-04z period. Rain chances reduce overnight with skies becoming
partly clear. There is potential for MVFR vis/cigs overnight, but
confidence was too low to mention in the TAF. More showers and
thunderstorms will develop Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Daily chances of rain are expected due to the land breeze
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during
the late night hours lingering into the morning and early
afternoon. Otherwise, generally light to moderate west to
southwest breezes are expected with seas 2 feet or less for the
most part.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

With wet conditions in place, fire weather concerns remain low.
Conditions remain fairly wet into early next week, but a drying
trend potentially develops through the week so expect warmer
temperatures by Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Heavy rainfall will continue to be possible across the area over
the next day or so with isolated flash flooding possible. Recent
rains have caused area rivers and streams, mainly across SE
Alabama and the FL Panhandle/western Big Bend, to rise. At this
point, only Bruce Creek near Redbay is in minor flood but should
fall back into action stage this evening. Several other rivers and
streams are in action stage or are forecast to reach action stage
over the next several days. No additional river flooding is
forecast at this time, but that could change if additional
significant rainfall is observed in the next day or so. After
Monday we transition into a drier and warmer pattern with much
lower chances for rain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  91  75  94 /  20  80  20  50
Panama City   80  89  78  91 /  30  60  30  50
Dothan        75  91  73  93 /  40  60  10  30
Albany        75  92  73  95 /  30  50  10  20
Valdosta      75  92  75  95 /  20  70  20  40
Cross City    78  89  76  92 /  30  70  40  60
Apalachicola  80  89  79  90 /  30  60  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>017-026-027-108-112-114-115-127.

     High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ112-114.

GA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ142-143-155>157.

AL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
358 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

ALZ065-066-068-069-152145-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-
358 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Dale,
southeastern Coffee, eastern Geneva and northwestern Houston Counties
through 445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Enterprise, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Fort Novosel, Enterprise, Dothan, Hartford, Midland City,
Level Plains, Slocomb, Newton, New Brockton, Pinckard, Clayhatchee,
Coffee Springs, Chancellor, Hollis Dairy Road, Kellys Crossroads,
Knox Field, Lucile, Gerald and Turner Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3123 8610 3145 8585 3127 8543 3101 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 301DEG 16KT 3134 8584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
515 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

FLZ112-152145-
Coastal Bay FL-
515 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Bay
County through 545 PM EDT...

At 515 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Springfield, or over Callaway, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Callaway, Springfield, Hiland Park, Tyndall Air Force
Base, Parker, Allanton, Cedar Grove, Dirego Park, Beacon Beach, Bay
Harbor, College Station, Davis Beach, Brannonville, Millville and
Wetappo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3024 8558 3020 8554 3019 8554 3015 8548
      3007 8539 3005 8539 3005 8538 3001 8539
      2994 8547 3011 8575
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 326DEG 24KT 3013 8562

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
519 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

ALZ066>069-GAZ121>124-142-143-152200-
Dale AL-Henry AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-Miller GA-Randolph GA-
Terrell GA-Calhoun GA-Clay GA-Early GA-
519 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Dale, Henry,
eastern Geneva and Houston Counties in southeastern Alabama,
northwestern Miller, Clay, eastern Randolph, Calhoun, Early and
Terrell Counties in southwestern Georgia through 600 PM EDT/500 PM
CDT/...

At 518 PM EDT/418 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles south of Geneva to
6 miles east of Georgetown. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Cottonwood, Fort Gaines, Morgan, Blakely, Dawson,
Headland, Dothan, Ozark, Fort Novosel, Taylor, Midland City, Kinsey,
Ashford, Slocomb, Cowarts, Edison, Newton, Arlington and Webb.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8428 3171 8429 3162 8438 3162 8445
      3143 8453 3143 8464 3130 8464 3107 8492
      3107 8503 3100 8500 3100 8568 3162 8560
      3162 8542 3171 8542 3170 8522 3177 8514
      3158 8494 3192 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 313DEG 25KT 3090 8582 3191 8499

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
604 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Black                   31.01N 85.73W
07/15/2023                   Geneva             AL   911 Call Center

            Power line down near Black.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
605 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

FLZ008-010-012-108-112-152300-
Coastal Bay FL-Central Walton FL-Inland Bay FL-South Walton FL-
Washington FL-
605 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bay,
southern Walton and southern Washington Counties through 700 PM
EDT/600 PM CDT/...

At 605 PM EDT/505 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 15 miles southeast of De Funiak Springs, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Santa Rosa Beach,
Springfield, Hiland Park, Eglin Air Force Base, Tyndall Air Force
Base, Live Oak, Freeport, Ebro, Villa Tasso, Dirego Park, College
Station, Gulf Resort Beach, Blue Mountain Beach, West Panama City,
Seaside, Bahama Beach and Rock Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3041 8631 3039 8626 3040 8624
      3041 8625 3038 8614 3039 8611 3043 8612
      3044 8616 3047 8613 3046 8619 3050 8620
      3048 8623 3046 8639 3067 8639 3068 8601
      3045 8545 3007 8567 3032 8615 3038 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 301DEG 22KT 3054 8599

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY