Severe Thunderstorm Warning 420, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
354 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Widespread showers and storms currently should continue through much
of the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the Florida
counties are getting much of the convection currently, storms
coverage should gradually increase somewhat into the evening hours
across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. While there is a
little less instability across these areas currently, northward
moving outflow boundaries, plenty of solar insolation, and the
remnants of an earlier MCS to the west should at least provide the
spark for more development. Expect this coverage to last into the
evening hours with activity slowly decreasing from sunset into and
just after midnight.

Broad cyclonic flow over a moist tropical airmass in the southeast
US continues on Sunday. The weak vort max that's been lingering
overhead since Friday will weaken and translate east on Sunday but
there will still be plenty of support given the moisture in place
for widespread showers and storms. A weak impulse moving towards the
forecast area in the afternoon will also further spark storm
development in the afternoon. While coverage might not be as high as
we're observing today, rain chances still remain around 60-80%,
especially across our Florida counties. The main concerns with
storms on Sunday will again be flooding given the high preciptable
waters and heavier rains we've seen as of late.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

A transition to a drier and hotter pattern is expected for the
short and long term as ridging to the west builds eastward over
the area. While deep layer moisture remains overhead, this ridging
will help lower rain chances to only isolated or scattered showers
and storms mostly along the afternoon sea breeze. High
temperatures are forecast to climb over the next several days as
well, topping out in the mid to upper 90s around midweek with a
couple spots of near 100 also possible. Heat indices will also
generally stay in the 103 to 110 degree range for most of the
period, and heat advisories may be needed for several days. Low
temperatures may also exacerbate any heat issues by remaining in
the mid to upper 70s, leaving little if any opportunity to really
cool off during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period though
occasional periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in
thunderstorms this afternoon. Rain chances will be high with
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across FL terminals
through at least 00z. Activity will transition into our AL/GA
terminals by later this afternoon and likely linger into the
00-04z period. Rain chances reduce overnight with skies becoming
partly clear. There is potential for MVFR vis/cigs overnight, but
confidence was too low to mention in the TAF. More showers and
thunderstorms will develop Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Daily chances of rain are expected due to the land breeze
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during
the late night hours lingering into the morning and early
afternoon. Otherwise, generally light to moderate west to
southwest breezes are expected with seas 2 feet or less for the
most part.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

With wet conditions in place, fire weather concerns remain low.
Conditions remain fairly wet into early next week, but a drying
trend potentially develops through the week so expect warmer
temperatures by Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Heavy rainfall will continue to be possible across the area over
the next day or so with isolated flash flooding possible. Recent
rains have caused area rivers and streams, mainly across SE
Alabama and the FL Panhandle/western Big Bend, to rise. At this
point, only Bruce Creek near Redbay is in minor flood but should
fall back into action stage this evening. Several other rivers and
streams are in action stage or are forecast to reach action stage
over the next several days. No additional river flooding is
forecast at this time, but that could change if additional
significant rainfall is observed in the next day or so. After
Monday we transition into a drier and warmer pattern with much
lower chances for rain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  91  75  94 /  20  80  20  50
Panama City   80  89  78  91 /  30  60  30  50
Dothan        75  91  73  93 /  40  60  10  30
Albany        75  92  73  95 /  30  50  10  20
Valdosta      75  92  75  95 /  20  70  20  40
Cross City    78  89  76  92 /  30  70  40  60
Apalachicola  80  89  79  90 /  30  60  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>017-026-027-108-112-114-115-127.

     High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ112-114.

GA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ142-143-155>157.

AL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
437 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

FLZ012-112-152115-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-
437 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bay County
through 515 PM EDT/415 PM CDT/...

At 437 PM EDT/337 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles north of Panama City Beach, moving southeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Springfield, Hiland Park,
Tyndall Air Force Base, St Andrews State Park, Southport, Seminole
Hills, Cedar Grove, Dirego Park, Beacon Beach, College Station, Gulf
Resort Beach, West Panama City, Camp Flowers, Bahama Beach, Biltmore
Beach, Sunnyside and Brannonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 8599 3041 8595 3041 8593 3042 8593
      3042 8592 3041 8591 3041 8588 3044 8586
      3044 8575 3034 8550 3007 8565 3027 8600
      3028 8599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 301DEG 17KT 3039 8589

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
451 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

GAZ120>122-152130-
Quitman GA-Randolph GA-Clay GA-
451 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Clay,
western Randolph and Quitman Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 451 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eufaula, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cuthbert, Georgetown, Wire Bridge, Bonapartes Retreat, Standleys
Store, Watson Crossroads, Crossroads, Ricks Place, Pecan, Hatcher,
Morris, Jones Crossing, Bethel, Benevolence, Springvale, Cotton Hill,
Wades, Days Crossroads, Springvale Station and Zetto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8496 3195 8496 3194 8495 3192 8491
      3192 8469 3193 8468 3192 8468 3192 8462
      3158 8494 3172 8512 3177 8512 3178 8514
      3179 8513 3189 8513 3194 8508 3196 8509
      3197 8507 3199 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 303DEG 22KT 3194 8517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
358 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

ALZ065-066-068-069-152145-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-
358 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Dale,
southeastern Coffee, eastern Geneva and northwestern Houston Counties
through 445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Enterprise, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Fort Novosel, Enterprise, Dothan, Hartford, Midland City,
Level Plains, Slocomb, Newton, New Brockton, Pinckard, Clayhatchee,
Coffee Springs, Chancellor, Hollis Dairy Road, Kellys Crossroads,
Knox Field, Lucile, Gerald and Turner Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3123 8610 3145 8585 3127 8543 3101 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 301DEG 16KT 3134 8584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD