Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
204 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

12Z surface analysis shows a warm front extending from Coffee
County, AL east-southeast across along or near the FL/GA line.
The front will continue advancing northward across the forecast
area. A long lived MCS is moving eastward just north of this
front. A few strong to severe storms have been developing along
the boundary. The 12Z KTAE sounding indicates a favorable
environment for severe storms particularly once we start to see
some breaks in the clouds and further destabilize. We remain in an
SPC Slight Risk outlook. The forecast looks to be on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

Severe weather and pockets of excessive rain will be the main
concerns today. SPC has placed our NW FL, SE AL, and far SW GA
counties in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather today.

A warm front is currently lifting north near the coast. There is a
sharp gradient in surface dewpoint across the front. From midnight
to 2 am, Apalachicola saw its dewpoint rise from 59F to 71F as the
front passed. As the front lifts north this morning, the rapid
increase in boundary layer moisture and filtered April sunshine will
support development of a moderately unstable air mass. Strong deep-
layer shear will be present, with moderate southerly surface winds
today beneath 45-55 knot W-NW flow at 500 mb.

Meanwhile, a low-amplitude shortwave in fast zonal flow is currently
zipping across Mississippi. A long-lived cluster of strong to severe
storms is currently crossing the Mississippi river from Louisiana
into MS. Other lower-topped convective cells have blossomed
overnight in southeast LA and SE MS in the warm, moist sector to its
south. The main cluster of storms will ride east this morning along
the northward-advancing warm front, entering our Alabama Wiregrass
counties by mid-day.

By this afternoon, upper support may outrun the cluster of storms as
it moves across our GA counties, but convective cold pool dynamics
and boundary interactions will readily take advantage of the
thermodynamic and kinematic environment to feed clusters of storms
as they move east and flank south across the forecast area this
afternoon. Any discrete cells will be in an environment favorable
for supercells, so damaging wind gusts are the biggest concern.
Presence of a warm front could locally enhance 0-1 km shear and
tornado potential. There should eventually be plenty of convective
outflow boundaries to focus additional development. Where these
boundaries support training or backbuilding thunderstorms, heavy
rain and flash flooding will be a concern. See hydro section for
more on that.

Activity will fade this evening with the departure of upper support
and loss of daytime heating. Given the muggy air mass and earlier

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

Once the shortwave exits our area, ridging begins building in for
the short term. We will begin a warming trend with highs climbing
into the upper 80s for most areas with mid-80s along the coast.
The I-75 corridor and southeast Big Bend may reach the lower 90s
Wednesday afternoon. The record highs for Tallahassee both Tuesday
and Wednesday are 91, and we will be within a few degree of these
records both days. Lows will be in the mid-60s. Some patchy fog
will be possible as well Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
given a warm, moist airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

Ridging continues to build on Thursday with the center of the
upper-level ridge nearly on top of our forecast area Thursday
afternoon. This yields another day where many inland areas may get
close to 90. The immediate coast, however, will likely remain in
the mid-80s. The record high for Tallahassee is 91 on Thursday, and
our current forecast calls for 90.

A cold front begins approaching our area late in the week,
bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms,
beginning Thursday afternoon. However, the best rain chances will
be on Friday as the front begins to sink into our area. It remains
uncertain how far into our forecast area this front makes it, as
climatologically, it becomes harder for fronts to make a clean
sweep through our area heading into April. Shortwaves will ride
along the front through the weekend with potentially a stronger
shortwave arriving on Sunday. This will keep the chance of
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day
through the long term period. This weekend, there will be a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the forecast area with upper 60s
to lower 70s for highs across the northern tier of counties with
lower to middle 80s in the Florida counties. Lows will cool in the
middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

Thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact terminals early in the
period, with the exception of ECP. Winds will be gusty out of the
south this afternoon at ECP and TLH. Low IFR ceilings will
develop overnight and lift an hour or two after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will move into the forecast
area today, but may remain mostly north of the marine area.
However, some gusty winds may be possible if stronger storms make
it into the marine zones, most likely near shore west of Mexico
Beach. Otherwise, generally southerly winds around 5 to 15 knots
are expected through the next several days as the area remains on
the western periphery of high pressure over the Atlantic. Seas
will remain around 2 to 3 feet. Winds will shift to more easterly
late in the week as a weak cold front moves into the forecast
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

Early this morning, a warm front will quickly lift north across the
districts, bringing a marked increase in dewpoint and atmospheric
moisture. This afternoon, a few clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms will move east, bringing strong, erratic and gusty
winds, along with pockets of excessive rainfall. Storms will fade
and exit this evening. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature much above
normal temperatures, but the air mass will be fairly muggy with
somewhat high humidity.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

Heavy rain and flash flooding will be concerns this afternoon. A
cluster of thunderstorms will move east across our Alabama and
Georgia counties, with outflow boundaries spreading south into our
Florida counties along and north of the I-10 corridor. These
boundaries will support additional thunderstorm development. These
storms will be capable of training or back-building along the slow-
moving boundaries.

The 00z HREF shows neighborhood probabilities of up to 25 percent
for rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance, most prominently in a
corridor from Enterprise Alabama to near Camilla Georgia. The
probability of locally exceeding 5 inches of rain has rise into the
25-35 percent range in this same area, with non-zero chance of an 8-
inch amount somewhere near the I-10 corridor in FL.

Otherwise, riverine flooding on the Apalachicola River will soon
end. Releases from Woodruff Dam were cut back significantly on
Saturday afternoon, so it will only take a few more hours for the
Apalachicola River at Blountstown to drop below flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   81  67  87  65 /  60  10  10   0
Panama City   79  70  81  67 /  40  10   0   0
Dothan        77  67  86  64 /  80  10  10   0
Albany        76  65  87  63 /  80  30  10   0
Valdosta      83  65  88  64 /  80  20  10   0
Cross City    85  65  89  64 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  77  70  78  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ009-
     011-016.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112.

GA...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ121-123-125-
     142>146-155>158.

AL...Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 PM EDT MON APR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW WEST BAINBRIDGE   30.92N 84.61W
04/03/2023                   DECATUR            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN WEST OF
            BAINBRIDGE. IN THE INDUSTRIAL PARK TWO SHOPS
            HAD DOORS BLOWN IN.

&&

KGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
151 PM EDT MON APR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     HAIL             1 NW WEST BAINBRIDGE    30.93N 84.60W
04/03/2023  E1.00 INCH       DECATUR            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS WEST OF BAINBRIDGE OF HAIL
            FALLING. SIZES RANGED FROM PEA TO QUARTER
            SIZE.

&&

KGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
156 PM EDT MON APR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE BETHANY           30.88N 84.68W
04/03/2023                   DECATUR            GA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE RELAYED PHOTO OF DOWNED TREE
            BLOCKING HIGHWAY 253 SW OF BAINBRIDGE. ALSO
            SOME MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A STRUCTURE IN THE
            AREA.

&&

KGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW CLIMAX            30.89N 84.48W
04/03/2023                   DECATUR            GA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR
            US-84 OVER A 1 MILE STRETCH.

&&

KGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
218 PM EDT MON APR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     DECATUR CO A/P          30.97N 84.63W
04/03/2023  M79 MPH          DECATUR            GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION TT665 BAINBRIDGE.

&&

KGG

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