Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
157 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

The cold front pushing through the region today, will clear the area
through the overnight hours. With the exception of coastal Florida
Panhandle and the Big Bend, all areas in the forecast area will be
dry by Sunday morning. Folks in the aforementioned Florida zones
will likely wake up to some low clouds and fog early in the morning
hours. These conditions are expected to quickly dissipate shortly
after sunrise as surface high pressure continues to push into the
southeast behind the cold front Sunday morning. Although surface
high pressure will be present across the region, a few shortwave
vorticity impulses across central Texas extending east into
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama will create a scattered to
broken cloud deck through the mid-levels across the region on
Sunday. Although surface flow will predominantly be out of the
north/northwest behind the cold front on Sunday, temperatures will
be warm, with highs climbing into the mid 70s across SE Alabama and
SW Georgia, and low 80s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

A warm front approaches the region on Monday with some showers and a
slight chance of thunder. While there is instability, not much in
the way of shear, so no severe concerns at this time. This will
usher in an anomalously warm and humid air mass by Tuesday, with
high temperatures flirting with 90 degrees during midweek. The next
cold front moves through the region Thursday/Friday, and that is
when greater shear in addition to instability, could produce more
robust thunderstorms. Fog is also possible beginning Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just starting to move into
the area this afternoon, and will likely start to bring MVFR to IFR
restrictions DHN and ECP within the next 2 hours. These showers and
thunderstorms are expected to progress through the region through
the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
By the 01-02 UTC, these showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
mostly dissipated or through all terminals. A brief period of VFR
conditions will be replaced by MVFR to IFR CIGS at TLH and ECP
starting around 06 UTC, which is forecast to last through sunrise
before clearing out. Beyond 12 UTC, all terminals are expected to
remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Southwest winds today switch to Northwest tonight with the passage
of a cold front, which will maintain elevated seas. More tranquil
boating conditions return late Sunday into Tuesday. Winds increase
out of the South and Southeast by Wednesday head of the next cold
front, with elevated seas returning. Small Craft Advisory conditions
are not expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Dry weather will be in place on Sunday across the region, with
north/northwesterly post-frontal winds leading to low dispersions
across SE Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Minimum RH values will
drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region, with rain
chances increasing on Monday primarily across SE Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle. This will similarly increase Minimum RH values on
Monday across the region. Although RH values will be low on Sunday,
there are no fire weather concerns through the rest of the weekend
and into the early portion of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

A Flood Warning is now in effect for the Flint River at Newton.
Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Flint River at Albany, and
the Apalachicola River at Blountstown.

Water from heavier rains last week continues to make progress
downstream the river systems. Heavier drawdowns from Lake Blackshear
have moved through the system and the flood wave is now approaching
Albany which will potentially reach minor flood on Sunday. This wave
will continue downstream with the Flint at Newton reaching minor
flood stage early Monday and then reaching Bainbridge possibly by
early Tuesday.

A pre-emptive drawdown of Lake Seminole began on Tuesday, bringing
minor flooding on the Apalachicola River. However, Lake Seminole is
now in better shape to absorb the extra water currently arriving
from the Chattahoochee side. The main flood wave on the Flint side
will start arriving around Tuesday/Wednesday. This will limit
flooding on the Apalachicola to the minor category, though minor
flooding will continue through at least the middle of next week.

For more detailed information on specific river stages and
forecasts, visit: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  58  80  59 /  50   0   0   0
Panama City   79  59  79  63 /  50   0   0  10
Dothan        82  52  75  57 /  70   0   0  10
Albany        82  51  75  56 /  70   0   0  10
Valdosta      85  55  78  56 /  70  10   0   0
Cross City    86  64  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  62  76  64 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...LF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
304 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARWICK                 31.83N 83.92W
04/01/2023                   WORTH              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MAIN
            STREET AND SCHOOLHOUSE STREET IN WARWICK.

&&

KGG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

GAZ128-129-131-148-012000-
Berrien GA-Tift GA-Irwin GA-Turner GA-
312 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Irwin,
northeastern Berrien, southeastern Turner and northern Tift Counties
through 400 PM EDT...

At 312 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Tifton, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ocilla, Tifton, Enigma, Alapaha, Mystic, Chula, Gladys, Glory,
Harding, Waterloo, Pinetta and Sunsweet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
south central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 8311 3147 8314 3146 8315 3144 8314
      3140 8314 3139 8312 3136 8311 3150 8363
      3167 8357 3157 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 287DEG 44KT 3156 8352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
332 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

GAZ125-127-144>146-012000-
Worth GA-Colquitt GA-Baker GA-Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-
332 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Dougherty, northeastern Mitchell, northeastern Baker, northwestern
Colquitt and southwestern Worth Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 331 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Baconton, or 7 miles northeast of Newton, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Putney, Baconton, Doerun, Sale City, Bridgeboro, Flint, Red
Store Crossroads, Livingston, Ticknor, Parkerville, Lester,
Pritchetts, Freeman, Greenough and Poplar Arbor Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
south central and southwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3132 8432 3148 8430 3149 8419 3147 8396
      3145 8392 3134 8391 3126 8395 3128 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 277DEG 35KT 3139 8424

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

99-OLIVER