Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
157 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

The cold front pushing through the region today, will clear the area
through the overnight hours. With the exception of coastal Florida
Panhandle and the Big Bend, all areas in the forecast area will be
dry by Sunday morning. Folks in the aforementioned Florida zones
will likely wake up to some low clouds and fog early in the morning
hours. These conditions are expected to quickly dissipate shortly
after sunrise as surface high pressure continues to push into the
southeast behind the cold front Sunday morning. Although surface
high pressure will be present across the region, a few shortwave
vorticity impulses across central Texas extending east into
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama will create a scattered to
broken cloud deck through the mid-levels across the region on
Sunday. Although surface flow will predominantly be out of the
north/northwest behind the cold front on Sunday, temperatures will
be warm, with highs climbing into the mid 70s across SE Alabama and
SW Georgia, and low 80s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

A warm front approaches the region on Monday with some showers and a
slight chance of thunder. While there is instability, not much in
the way of shear, so no severe concerns at this time. This will
usher in an anomalously warm and humid air mass by Tuesday, with
high temperatures flirting with 90 degrees during midweek. The next
cold front moves through the region Thursday/Friday, and that is
when greater shear in addition to instability, could produce more
robust thunderstorms. Fog is also possible beginning Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just starting to move into
the area this afternoon, and will likely start to bring MVFR to IFR
restrictions DHN and ECP within the next 2 hours. These showers and
thunderstorms are expected to progress through the region through
the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
By the 01-02 UTC, these showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
mostly dissipated or through all terminals. A brief period of VFR
conditions will be replaced by MVFR to IFR CIGS at TLH and ECP
starting around 06 UTC, which is forecast to last through sunrise
before clearing out. Beyond 12 UTC, all terminals are expected to
remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Southwest winds today switch to Northwest tonight with the passage
of a cold front, which will maintain elevated seas. More tranquil
boating conditions return late Sunday into Tuesday. Winds increase
out of the South and Southeast by Wednesday head of the next cold
front, with elevated seas returning. Small Craft Advisory conditions
are not expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Dry weather will be in place on Sunday across the region, with
north/northwesterly post-frontal winds leading to low dispersions
across SE Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Minimum RH values will
drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region, with rain
chances increasing on Monday primarily across SE Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle. This will similarly increase Minimum RH values on
Monday across the region. Although RH values will be low on Sunday,
there are no fire weather concerns through the rest of the weekend
and into the early portion of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

A Flood Warning is now in effect for the Flint River at Newton.
Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Flint River at Albany, and
the Apalachicola River at Blountstown.

Water from heavier rains last week continues to make progress
downstream the river systems. Heavier drawdowns from Lake Blackshear
have moved through the system and the flood wave is now approaching
Albany which will potentially reach minor flood on Sunday. This wave
will continue downstream with the Flint at Newton reaching minor
flood stage early Monday and then reaching Bainbridge possibly by
early Tuesday.

A pre-emptive drawdown of Lake Seminole began on Tuesday, bringing
minor flooding on the Apalachicola River. However, Lake Seminole is
now in better shape to absorb the extra water currently arriving
from the Chattahoochee side. The main flood wave on the Flint side
will start arriving around Tuesday/Wednesday. This will limit
flooding on the Apalachicola to the minor category, though minor
flooding will continue through at least the middle of next week.

For more detailed information on specific river stages and
forecasts, visit: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  58  80  59 /  50   0   0   0
Panama City   79  59  79  63 /  50   0   0  10
Dothan        82  52  75  57 /  70   0   0  10
Albany        82  51  75  56 /  70   0   0  10
Valdosta      85  55  78  56 /  70  10   0   0
Cross City    86  64  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  62  76  64 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...LF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
107 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

GAZ120-011745-
Quitman GA-
107 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Quitman County
through 145 PM EDT...

At 106 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Eufaula, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Hatcher, Morris, Wire Bridge, Crossroads and Bonapartes
Retreat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8495 3192 8491 3178 8491 3178 8502
      3177 8503 3177 8507 3178 8508 3178 8514
      3179 8513 3183 8513 3184 8514 3189 8513
      3190 8511 3194 8508 3194 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 279DEG 37KT 3186 8516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

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