Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023

Mesoscale Discussion 528

April 15, 202316 counties in Illinois; 17 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 15, 2023, 3:21 PM CDT for 16 counties in Illinois; 17 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 15, 2023, 3:21 PM CDT (20:21 UTC)
Expired
Apr 15, 2023, 5:15 PM CDT
In force
114 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 33 counties

Alexander County, IL, Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Union County, IL, Washington County, IL, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Perry County, MO, Pike County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 255 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2023-04-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 40 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2023-04-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 34 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
40 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-164 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1437 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 15, 8:50 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Calhoun, Jackson, Jersey, Madison, Monroe and 3 more85 min
Apr 15, 11:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Greene, Jersey, Macoupin, Madison, Monroe and 4 more3 hr
Apr 15, 4:03 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Bond, Calhoun, Clinton, Fayette, Franklin and 15 more6 hr
Apr 15, 5:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Jersey, Madison, Monroe, Saint Clair83 min
Apr 15, 6:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Clay, Clinton, Effingham, Fayette and 20 more85 min
Apr 14, 9:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison86 min
Apr 14, 11:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuchanan, Platte117 min
Apr 15, 12:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudrain, Barry, Barton, Benton, Boone, Callaway and 42 more6 hr
Apr 15, 3:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Camden, Christian, Cole, Crawford, Dallas and 21 more2 hr
Apr 15, 6:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDunklin, Pemiscot92 min
Apr 15, 6:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDunklin, Pemiscot7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.