Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023

Mesoscale Discussion 48

January 12, 202336 counties in Kentucky; 10 counties in Ohio; Cabell County, Mason County, Wayne County, West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 12, 2023, 9:28 AM EST for 36 counties in Kentucky; 10 counties in Ohio; Cabell County, Mason County, Wayne County, West Virginia. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 12, 2023, 9:28 AM EST (14:28 UTC)
Expired
Jan 12, 2023, 10:30 AM EST
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 49 counties

Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clark County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Powell County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Highland County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Pike County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Cabell County, WV, Mason County, WV, Wayne County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2023-01-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 94 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2023-01-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 74 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
94 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
585 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
74 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 12, 1:41 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Calloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman and 4 more4 hr
Jan 12, 2:57 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more5 hr
Jan 12, 5:32 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Anderson, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge, Bullitt and 36 more118 min
Jan 12, 6:00 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle and 43 more7 hr
Jan 12, 9:41 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBath, Boyd, Bracken, Breathitt, Carter, Clay and 26 more4 hr
Jan 12, 12:44 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Breathitt, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland, Jackson and 15 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.