Mesoscale Discussion 2321

Issued

Dec 10, 2023, 4:00 AM CST (10:00 UTC)

Expired

Dec 10, 2023, 5:30 AM CST

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 719

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

715 
ACUS11 KWNS 101001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101000 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southern/eastern
AL...and western GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 719...

Valid 101000Z - 101130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 719 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a
couple of tornadoes, continues early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists in a narrow
corridor ahead of ongoing convection and a southeastward-moving cold
front across parts of the western FL Panhandle, southern/eastern AL,
and western GA. Even with some stability and near-neutral
boundary-layer lapse rates noted in RAP forecast soundings across
this region, sufficient low-level moisture still likely exists to
support surface-based convection. Deep-layer shear remains more than
adequate for organized updrafts, with enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow associated with an upper trough aiding around 40-55
kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of short, bowing line segments and
occasional supercell structures has been observed over the past
couple of hours. Current expectations are for this mixed convective
mode to continue for a few more hours early this morning as this
activity spreads generally east-northeastward. 150-200 m2/s2 of
0-1-km SRH is still present along/ahead of this convection per
latest VWPs from KEVX/KEOX. Accordingly, any supercell that can be
sustained remains capable of producing a tornado. Isolated damaging
winds may also occur with the more linear convection along/near the
cold front.

..Gleason.. 12/10/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30358685 31258694 32628565 33058427 30938482 29708529
            29978567 30268631 30358685

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.