Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023

Mesoscale Discussion 231

March 2, 202321 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 2, 2023, 4:51 PM CST for 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 2, 2023, 4:51 PM CST (22:51 UTC)
Expired: Mar 2, 2023, 5:45 PM CST
In force: 54 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 21 counties

Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, Medina County, TX, Real County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Wilson County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56Mar 2, 5:10 PM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 356 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 229 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -360 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1472 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 343 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 436 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 1, 10:21 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, DeWitt and 10 more	114 min
Mar 2, 4:11 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Brazos, Burleson and 19 more	3 hr
Mar 2, 10:55 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Callahan, Coleman, Cooke, Denton, Eastland, Erath and 11 more	3 hr
Mar 2, 12:48 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Eastland, Jack and 6 more	6 hr
Mar 2, 1:01 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Eastland and 16 more	2 hr
Mar 2, 1:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Fisher and 17 more	6 hr
Mar 2, 2:38 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Camp, Cass and 42 more	3 hr
Mar 2, 2:58 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Anderson, Angelina, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Camp and 58 more	9 hr
Mar 2, 3:29 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Callahan, Coleman, Cooke, Jack, Montague, Shackelford and 4 more	2 hr
Mar 2, 5:08 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 16 more	5 hr
Mar 2, 5:10 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Franklin, Gregg and 9 more	2 hr
Mar 2, 5:43 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell, Dallas and 18 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2023 Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.