Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023

Mesoscale Discussion 1997

August 14, 202321 counties in North Carolina; 11 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 14, 2023, 10:24 PM EDT for 21 counties in North Carolina; 11 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 14, 2023, 10:24 PM EDT (02:24 UTC)
Expired: Aug 15, 2023, 1:00 AM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 60%

All 32 counties

Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Campbell County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Franklin County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648Aug 14, 10:55 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 603 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1500 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 14, 8:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Avery, Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood and 6 more	6 hr
Aug 14, 10:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Alleghany, Ashe, Stokes, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes and 1 more	5 hr
Aug 15, 12:01 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Avery, Cherokee, Graham, Haywood, Madison, Mitchell and 2 more	119 min
Aug 15, 1:28 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Alexander, Cabarrus, Caswell, Catawba, Chatham and 31 more	3 hr
Aug 15, 1:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Cabarrus, Caswell, Catawba and 40 more	7 hr
Aug 15, 2:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 3 more	6 hr
Aug 15, 3:56 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Cabarrus, Camden and 45 more	94 min
Aug 15, 5:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Beaufort, Bladen, Carteret, Columbus, Craven, Dare and 13 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2023 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2023 Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.