Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
353 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture in place will maintain isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight. A trend towards
a drier and more stable pattern can be expected Friday into next week
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...The shortwave trough that
brought heavy rain to portions of northern Utah earlier this morning
has now shifted into central Wyoming. In the wake of this low, the
airmass has become largely suppressed across north-central and
northeastern Utah. The exception is along an outflow boundary
currently extending from the southern portion of the GSL to around
KEVW where showers and thunderstorms recently developed. Otherwise,
the airmass has destabilized more across far northwest Utah and
southern Utah where thunderstorm development has been noted. Even
though PWATs are down to around 0.7 inches across southern and
central Utah, these storms are still capable of producing heavy rain
due to lingering low-level moisture. Expect the southern/central
Utah convection to gradually diminish this evening. However, the
convection across northwest Utah is expected to spread eastward and
be sustained due a subtle disturbance and influence of an upper jet
which punching into central Utah.

With a continued drying trend tomorrow, convection will become more
isolated and become increasingly confined to northern Utah. The
potential for heavy rain and associated flash flooding will also be
much lower, though not quite zero. HREF ensemble max 6-hr
precipitation still indicates some localized 0.5-1.0 inch
accumulations tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the Raft Rivers and
Uintas. Otherwise, in conjunction with the drier airmass,
temperatures will also gradually warm tomorrow.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...There is little to no change in
the extended forecast period as a building high pressure ridge over
the Great Basin will trend us towards a drying and cooling period.
However to start the period on Saturday and Sunday we cannot rule
out the potential for some isolated showers and storms over the
higher terrain of northern Utah and SW Wyoming where lingering low
level moisture, while on the decline, is still expected to have
precipitable water values hovering around 0.8". Further south, the
shortwave won't have as much of an influence and available moisture
will be much little to none, so dry conditions are favored.

By the start of the work week the ridge will expand northward over
the region and bringing stronger cooling and drying as the week goes
on. This will bring afternoon highs for many valleys in the upper
80s and low 90s while far southwestern UT still sits right around
100F. As the ridge slowly tracks east, the deterministic models show
several disturbances that track across southern Utah around the
ridge that could bring some stronger winds, which could result in
conditions nearing Red Flag Warning criteria Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible between 01Z and 05Z. Northwest winds expected to switch to
southeast winds between 03Z and 05Z. Winds with these showers and
thunderstorms could become gusty and erratic, especially with
outflow winds. VFR conditions expected. There is a small chance
(20%) that heavy rainfall associated with these storms could produce
MVFR conditions.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms
expected for most of the area through the afternoon and into the
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for northern
Utah and southwest Wyoming through 06Z. Diurnal winds expected for
the period, with the exception of gusty and erratic winds associated
with these storms. VFR conditions expected. here is a small chance
(20%) that heavy rainfall associated with these storms could produce
MVFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered wet thunderstorms across northern Utah
will continue into this evening. As drier air continues to move in
from the south, thunderstorms across southern Utah will diminish
later this evening. However, across the north, a few showers can be
expected to linger late into the night. With the drying trend
continuing tomorrow into the weekend, expect shower and thunderstorm
activity to become much more isolated and likely limited to the
higher terrain of northern Utah, with less of a potential for
wetting rains. Temperatures will also trend warmer during this
timeframe. Thereafter, the airmass will remain warm and generally
dry through at least the middle of next week, with a chance that far
southern Utah zones could see critical fire weather conditions due
to gusty winds and low humidities.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.

WY...None.
&&

Cheng/Selbig/Cecava

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
228 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

UTZ104-105-032045-
Salt Lake Valley UT-Northern Wasatch Front UT-
228 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Salt
Lake and central Davis Counties through 245 PM MDT...

At 227 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Syracuse, or 8 miles southwest of Hill Air Force Base, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Layton, Farmington, Kaysville, Syracuse, Great Salt Lake South of the
Causeway, West Point and Antelope Island State Park.

This storm will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and half
inch hail on the Great Salt Lake. This will lead to a sudden
increase in waves and very choppy waters which will result in
hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are urged to seek safe harbor
if possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 11227 4114 11212 4098 11191 4085 11212
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 319DEG 11KT 4106 11213

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH

ND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
245 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

UTZ108-110-032100-
Wasatch Back UT-Wasatch Mountains I-80 North UT-
245 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Weber...northeastern Davis and west central Morgan Counties through
300 PM MDT...

At 245 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Uintah, or 7 miles northwest of Morgan, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morgan, Mountain Green, Portersville, Croydon, Stoddard, Peterson and
Richville.

This includes Interstate 84 between mile markers 90 and 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4113 11190 4123 11176 4106 11150 4093 11171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 319DEG 15KT 4112 11180

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
320 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

UTZ101-032145-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
320 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Box
Elder County through 345 PM MDT...

At 319 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 29
miles northeast of Montello, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grouse Creek and Etna.

This includes Utah Route 30 near mile marker 12, and between mile
markers 42 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 11384 4176 11349 4142 11382 4158 11404
      4164 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 304DEG 10KT 4164 11392

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ND

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