Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
353 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture in place will maintain isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight. A trend towards
a drier and more stable pattern can be expected Friday into next week
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...The shortwave trough that
brought heavy rain to portions of northern Utah earlier this morning
has now shifted into central Wyoming. In the wake of this low, the
airmass has become largely suppressed across north-central and
northeastern Utah. The exception is along an outflow boundary
currently extending from the southern portion of the GSL to around
KEVW where showers and thunderstorms recently developed. Otherwise,
the airmass has destabilized more across far northwest Utah and
southern Utah where thunderstorm development has been noted. Even
though PWATs are down to around 0.7 inches across southern and
central Utah, these storms are still capable of producing heavy rain
due to lingering low-level moisture. Expect the southern/central
Utah convection to gradually diminish this evening. However, the
convection across northwest Utah is expected to spread eastward and
be sustained due a subtle disturbance and influence of an upper jet
which punching into central Utah.

With a continued drying trend tomorrow, convection will become more
isolated and become increasingly confined to northern Utah. The
potential for heavy rain and associated flash flooding will also be
much lower, though not quite zero. HREF ensemble max 6-hr
precipitation still indicates some localized 0.5-1.0 inch
accumulations tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the Raft Rivers and
Uintas. Otherwise, in conjunction with the drier airmass,
temperatures will also gradually warm tomorrow.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...There is little to no change in
the extended forecast period as a building high pressure ridge over
the Great Basin will trend us towards a drying and cooling period.
However to start the period on Saturday and Sunday we cannot rule
out the potential for some isolated showers and storms over the
higher terrain of northern Utah and SW Wyoming where lingering low
level moisture, while on the decline, is still expected to have
precipitable water values hovering around 0.8". Further south, the
shortwave won't have as much of an influence and available moisture
will be much little to none, so dry conditions are favored.

By the start of the work week the ridge will expand northward over
the region and bringing stronger cooling and drying as the week goes
on. This will bring afternoon highs for many valleys in the upper
80s and low 90s while far southwestern UT still sits right around
100F. As the ridge slowly tracks east, the deterministic models show
several disturbances that track across southern Utah around the
ridge that could bring some stronger winds, which could result in
conditions nearing Red Flag Warning criteria Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible between 01Z and 05Z. Northwest winds expected to switch to
southeast winds between 03Z and 05Z. Winds with these showers and
thunderstorms could become gusty and erratic, especially with
outflow winds. VFR conditions expected. There is a small chance
(20%) that heavy rainfall associated with these storms could produce
MVFR conditions.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms
expected for most of the area through the afternoon and into the
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for northern
Utah and southwest Wyoming through 06Z. Diurnal winds expected for
the period, with the exception of gusty and erratic winds associated
with these storms. VFR conditions expected. here is a small chance
(20%) that heavy rainfall associated with these storms could produce
MVFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered wet thunderstorms across northern Utah
will continue into this evening. As drier air continues to move in
from the south, thunderstorms across southern Utah will diminish
later this evening. However, across the north, a few showers can be
expected to linger late into the night. With the drying trend
continuing tomorrow into the weekend, expect shower and thunderstorm
activity to become much more isolated and likely limited to the
higher terrain of northern Utah, with less of a potential for
wetting rains. Temperatures will also trend warmer during this
timeframe. Thereafter, the airmass will remain warm and generally
dry through at least the middle of next week, with a chance that far
southern Utah zones could see critical fire weather conditions due
to gusty winds and low humidities.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.

WY...None.
&&

Cheng/Selbig/Cecava

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
443 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

UTZ101-032315-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
443 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Box
Elder County through 515 PM MDT...

At 442 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles northwest of Utah Test and Training Range North, or 31 miles
east of Montello, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Utah Test and Training Range North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 11366 4133 11371 4137 11328 4112 11325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 256DEG 17KT 4122 11358

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
451 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

UTZ113-120-121-032315-
San Rafael Swell UT-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs UT-Castle Country UT-
451 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Emery
and south central Carbon Counties through 515 PM MDT...

At 451 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Sunnyside, or 21 miles southeast of Price, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sunnyside and East Carbon.

This includes US Route 6 between mile markers 258 and 271.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 11039 3946 11058 3967 11043 3950 11015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 218DEG 12KT 3943 11045

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
518 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

UTZ101-040000-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
518 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Box
Elder County through 600 PM MDT...

At 518 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles north of Utah Test and Training Range North, or 44 miles east
of Montello, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Box
Elder County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4119 11339 4137 11344 4146 11311 4120 11304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 259DEG 16KT 4130 11332

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ND