Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
214 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...Severe storms possible across the Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland this afternoon and evening...

Current surface/visible satellite data, indicates a cold front
moving south across the area early this afternoon. The cold front is
near a San Angelo to Brownwood line. Also, a dryline is moving into
the western Northern Edwards Plateau. To the south and east of these
boundaries, the warm sector has dewpoints in the mid 60s and strong
instability. Also, good deep layer shear(effective 30 to 40 knots)
across this area. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the warm sector, mainly south and east of an Sonora to
San Angelo to Cross Plains line. Due to the excellent near storm
environment(thermodynamics and wind ahead), some storms may be
severe this afternoon through mid evening and more numerous over
the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. The main hazards will be
very large hail(2 inch diameter or greater), damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes. The threat of severe weather will be over with
by midnight, but isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are still possible across the eastern half of the
area after midnight. Please stay updated on the latest weather
information this afternoon and tonight, especially watches and
convective warnings. Also, have many sources/ways to receive
warnings. The weather looks quiet on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Stronger cold front arrives Saturday, bringing a cooler air mas
and a chance for rain to the area for Sunday and Monday. Warm
moist air from the Gulf runs up and over this boundary starting
Sunday, with increasing cloud cover and showers and storms
increasing by afternoon. Model blends have highs on Sunday in the
50s and 60s but some of the models like the NAM keeps the Big
Country and Concho Valley in the 40s or lower 50s. Staying this
cool is certainly possible given the conditions but it will toke
the rain being fairly widespread in the afternoon to make sure it
happens. Will stay with model blends for now but will take a
better look tomorrow once we get the severe storm threat out of
the area today.

Somewhat warmer conditions return for next week, but with the
models suggesting a developing deep upper level trough over the
Rockies and Southern Plains, shower and storm chances will
continue into Monday before pushing northeast of the area for mid
week. Highs back in the mid 80s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon and evening mainly south and east of an Sonora to San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Going with VCTS at the southeast
terminals and will keep an eye on radar trends for possible
amendments. Also, a few storms may be severe. Otherwise, expect
mainly VFR conditions with MVFR ceilings at the KJCT and KBBD
terminals late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     50  74  50  80 /  30  10   0  10
San Angelo  56  79  50  86 /  10  10   0  10
Junction    59  82  51  85 /  40  10   0  10
Brownwood   54  77  48  80 /  40  20   0  10
Sweetwater  51  74  51  81 /  10   0   0  10
Ozona       57  81  51  85 /  10   0   0  10
Brady       57  77  51  81 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
251 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-212000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
251 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some of which will likely be severe, will
be likely across the Heartland and Hill Country through early this
evening, mainly south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main threat. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms on Saturday. The main
concerns are large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation has already been requested for late this
afternoon and early evening.