Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS San Angelo, TX

106 
WGUS74 KSJT 202232
FFSSJT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
532 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

TXC411-202315-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230420T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Saba TX-
532 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL SAN SABA COUNTY...

At 519 PM CDT, Rainfall of 2 to 3.5 inches has occurred across parts 
of central and east-central San Saba County since 3 PM. This has 
likely caused some flooding. Radar indicated additional showers 
moving into San Saba County, and additional rainfall of one tenth to 
three tents of an inch are possible through 615 PM. Motorists should 
be alert for street flooding in the town of San Saba, and for 
localized flooding in low-lying areas.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Showers and
         thunderstorms producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  San Saba, Algerita, Sloan, Chappel, Bend, Harkeyville and Us-190 
  Near The San Saba-Lampasas County Line.

This includes the following Low Water Crossings...
FM 1030 crossing Wallace Creek, CR 340 crossing San Saba River, CR 
340 crossing Dry Creek, CR 424 crossing Rough Creek, CR 208 crossing 
San Saba River and County Road 432 crossing Cherokee Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 9901 3133 9859 3129 9860 3127 9863
      3125 9860 3127 9858 3124 9856 3120 9857
      3117 9850 3112 9855 3109 9852 3112 9850
      3111 9846 3109 9847 3108 9846 3106 9848
      3099 9892 3100 9895

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
214 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...Severe storms possible across the Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland this afternoon and evening...

Current surface/visible satellite data, indicates a cold front
moving south across the area early this afternoon. The cold front is
near a San Angelo to Brownwood line. Also, a dryline is moving into
the western Northern Edwards Plateau. To the south and east of these
boundaries, the warm sector has dewpoints in the mid 60s and strong
instability. Also, good deep layer shear(effective 30 to 40 knots)
across this area. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
develop in the warm sector, mainly south and east of an Sonora to
San Angelo to Cross Plains line. Due to the excellent near storm
environment(thermodynamics and wind ahead), some storms may be
severe this afternoon through mid evening and more numerous over
the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. The main hazards will be
very large hail(2 inch diameter or greater), damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes. The threat of severe weather will be over with
by midnight, but isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are still possible across the eastern half of the
area after midnight. Please stay updated on the latest weather
information this afternoon and tonight, especially watches and
convective warnings. Also, have many sources/ways to receive
warnings. The weather looks quiet on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Stronger cold front arrives Saturday, bringing a cooler air mas
and a chance for rain to the area for Sunday and Monday. Warm
moist air from the Gulf runs up and over this boundary starting
Sunday, with increasing cloud cover and showers and storms
increasing by afternoon. Model blends have highs on Sunday in the
50s and 60s but some of the models like the NAM keeps the Big
Country and Concho Valley in the 40s or lower 50s. Staying this
cool is certainly possible given the conditions but it will toke
the rain being fairly widespread in the afternoon to make sure it
happens. Will stay with model blends for now but will take a
better look tomorrow once we get the severe storm threat out of
the area today.

Somewhat warmer conditions return for next week, but with the
models suggesting a developing deep upper level trough over the
Rockies and Southern Plains, shower and storm chances will
continue into Monday before pushing northeast of the area for mid
week. Highs back in the mid 80s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon and evening mainly south and east of an Sonora to San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Going with VCTS at the southeast
terminals and will keep an eye on radar trends for possible
amendments. Also, a few storms may be severe. Otherwise, expect
mainly VFR conditions with MVFR ceilings at the KJCT and KBBD
terminals late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     50  74  50  80 /  30  10   0  10
San Angelo  56  79  50  86 /  10  10   0  10
Junction    59  82  51  85 /  40  10   0  10
Brownwood   54  77  48  80 /  40  20   0  10
Sweetwater  51  74  51  81 /  10   0   0  10
Ozona       57  81  51  85 /  10   0   0  10
Brady       57  77  51  81 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
251 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-212000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
251 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some of which will likely be severe, will
be likely across the Heartland and Hill Country through early this
evening, mainly south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main threat. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms on Saturday. The main
concerns are large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation has already been requested for late this
afternoon and early evening.