Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
249 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

Will be brief as Tornado Watch #1 is currently in effect or the
northwest 2/3rds of our region through 9 pm this evening.
Sufficient low level/deep layer directional and speed shear is
in place for the development of multi-cellular and discrete
mesocyclones through the remainder of the afternoon hours and
into the mid to late evening. Beyond the mid to late evening
hours, believe we will see storms trying to become more linear as
low level flow begins to veer more and becomes uni-directional.
This would likely result in more of a wind threat the later into
the evening and overnight this severe weather threat drags out.
Also of concern is the late night excessive heavy rainfall threat
which will continue to be monitored as well. Needless to say, did
not touch the Flash Flood Watch that remains in effect until 12z
Tue morning and may need to be extended through the mid to late
morning hours across our eastern third given the fact that the
frontal boundary will slow its eastward progression once it moves
into NW LA by 12z Tue.

Did not stray far from NBM temps through the short term.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

Beyond Tue Night, deep upper low across the Northern Plains with
the Middle Red River Valley into the Lower Miss Valley under the
influence of the base of the trough to our north. Despite the
dynamics across our region, our moisture profile will tend to
scour out, thus the forecast will remain dry through the remainder
of the work week. A rather flat ridge upstream of the base of the
trough across our region will migrate eastward by Friday with
west southwest flow aloft beginning to increase from the Tx Hill
Country by this weekend. There will be enough forcing with this
increased southwesterly flow aloft to support chance pops this
weekend. Given the strongly positive tilt to the upstream trough
and the lack of significant low level return, strong to severe
storms does not appear likely this weekend. In fact, left any
mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast for now but this will
continue to be monitored as the event nears. Stayed close to NBM
temps through the extended.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

Deteriorating flight conditions as we go through the remainder of
the afternoon, through the evening and overnight hours. Needless
to say, expect of plethora of cloud heights, VSBYS and wind shifts
with in and out convection through the TAF period. Did try to show
improving conditions weather and ceiling wise across our west and
northwest terminal locations beyond 03/12z along with a
predominant wind shift.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  73  47  64 /  90  20   0   0
MLU  65  75  50  66 /  90  70  10   0
DEQ  53  68  39  59 /  90   0   0   0
TXK  59  70  44  60 /  90  10   0   0
ELD  61  73  45  62 / 100  30   0   0
TYR  56  69  44  63 /  70   0   0   0
GGG  58  70  45  63 /  80  10   0   0
LFK  63  73  48  67 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ097-112-126-138-151>153-
     165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1218 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-031200-
McCurtain-Red River-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Wood-Upshur-Smith-
Gregg-Cherokee-Rusk-
1218 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Oklahoma and
northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into
the overnight hours. Some of these storms could be severe, especially
from late this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail will be possible. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as discrete supercells and eventually congeal
into a linear complex. Given the strongly sheared environment, a few
of these tornadoes could be strong. Heavy rain and isolated flash
flooding may also become a concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and into
early Tuesday morning.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-126-
138-151>153-165>167-031200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Harrison-Panola-Nacogdoches-
Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1218 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into
the overnight hours. Some of these storms could be severe, especially
from late this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail will be possible. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as discrete supercells and eventually congeal
into a linear complex. Given the strongly sheared environment, a few
of these tornadoes could be strong. Heavy rain and isolated flash
flooding may also become a concern where training thunderstorms
occur. In these areas, widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is
expected, with locally higher amounts of 3 inches or more. Therefore,
a Flood Watch is in effect through Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Lingering showers and thunders will be possible in our eastern zones
as the line exits the region. A few of these may be strong to
severe. Once this line leaves the area in the late morning hours, no
additional hazardous weather threat is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon through
Tuesday morning.

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
448 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

ARZ061-071-072-022345-
Lafayette AR-Nevada AR-Columbia AR-
448 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Lafayette, southeastern Nevada and Columbia Counties through 545 PM
CST...

At 448 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Taylor, or near Springhill, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Magnolia, Waldo, McNeil, Taylor, Bussey, Smithland, Macedonia,
Welcome, Calhoun, Mount Vernon, Young, Ebenezer, Laughlin,
Walkerville, Cornelius, College Hill, State Line, Horsehead,
Lamartine and Medlock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 9316 3355 9311 3338 9312 3338 9298
      3334 9298 3302 9334 3302 9364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 217DEG 37KT 3307 9344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 PM CST MON JAN 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S COUSHATTA           32.02N 93.34W
01/02/2023                   RED RIVER          LA   STORM CHASER

            A LOT OF WATER OF EAST CARROLL ST. IN
            COUSHATTA AS WELL. UNKNOWN DEPTH. SEVERAL
            PARTS OF IT IN TOWN.

&&

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
529 PM CST MON JAN 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TORNADO          3 E JONESBORO           32.24N 92.66W
01/02/2023                   JACKSON            LA   STORM CHASER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN, INCLUDING LARGE ONES.
            LIKELY TORNADO DAMAGE BASED ON TDS.

&&

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
534 PM CST MON JAN 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 WNW CONVERSE          31.84N 93.82W
01/02/2023                   SABINE             LA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CULVERT WASHED OUT AT COKER WORSHAM ROAD.

&&

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
535 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

LAZ005-012>014-018>020-030030-
Winn LA-Bienville LA-Lincoln LA-Natchitoches LA-Ouachita LA-Grant LA-
Jackson LA-
535 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Grant,
Jackson, eastern Natchitoches, southwestern Ouachita, southeastern
Bienville, southeastern Lincoln and Winn Parishes through 630 PM
CST...

At 535 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Jonesboro to 8 miles north
of Hutton. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ruston, Grambling, Winnfield, Jonesboro, Montgomery, Choudrant,
Simsboro, Chatham, Hodge, Dry Prong, Goldonna, North Hodge, Dodson,
East Hodge, Calvin, Quitman, Atlanta, Eros, Sikes and Cloutierville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for north central
and northwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 9223 3156 9251 3151 9306 3253 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 259DEG 19KT 3230 9278 3145 9304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 PM CST MON JAN 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CONVERSE                31.78N 93.69W
01/02/2023                   SABINE             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADS.

&&

16