Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
249 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

Will be brief as Tornado Watch #1 is currently in effect or the
northwest 2/3rds of our region through 9 pm this evening.
Sufficient low level/deep layer directional and speed shear is
in place for the development of multi-cellular and discrete
mesocyclones through the remainder of the afternoon hours and
into the mid to late evening. Beyond the mid to late evening
hours, believe we will see storms trying to become more linear as
low level flow begins to veer more and becomes uni-directional.
This would likely result in more of a wind threat the later into
the evening and overnight this severe weather threat drags out.
Also of concern is the late night excessive heavy rainfall threat
which will continue to be monitored as well. Needless to say, did
not touch the Flash Flood Watch that remains in effect until 12z
Tue morning and may need to be extended through the mid to late
morning hours across our eastern third given the fact that the
frontal boundary will slow its eastward progression once it moves
into NW LA by 12z Tue.

Did not stray far from NBM temps through the short term.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

Beyond Tue Night, deep upper low across the Northern Plains with
the Middle Red River Valley into the Lower Miss Valley under the
influence of the base of the trough to our north. Despite the
dynamics across our region, our moisture profile will tend to
scour out, thus the forecast will remain dry through the remainder
of the work week. A rather flat ridge upstream of the base of the
trough across our region will migrate eastward by Friday with
west southwest flow aloft beginning to increase from the Tx Hill
Country by this weekend. There will be enough forcing with this
increased southwesterly flow aloft to support chance pops this
weekend. Given the strongly positive tilt to the upstream trough
and the lack of significant low level return, strong to severe
storms does not appear likely this weekend. In fact, left any
mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast for now but this will
continue to be monitored as the event nears. Stayed close to NBM
temps through the extended.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

Deteriorating flight conditions as we go through the remainder of
the afternoon, through the evening and overnight hours. Needless
to say, expect of plethora of cloud heights, VSBYS and wind shifts
with in and out convection through the TAF period. Did try to show
improving conditions weather and ceiling wise across our west and
northwest terminal locations beyond 03/12z along with a
predominant wind shift.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  73  47  64 /  90  20   0   0
MLU  65  75  50  66 /  90  70  10   0
DEQ  53  68  39  59 /  90   0   0   0
TXK  59  70  44  60 /  90  10   0   0
ELD  61  73  45  62 / 100  30   0   0
TYR  56  69  44  63 /  70   0   0   0
GGG  58  70  45  63 /  80  10   0   0
LFK  63  73  48  67 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ097-112-126-138-151>153-
     165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1218 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-031200-
McCurtain-Red River-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Wood-Upshur-Smith-
Gregg-Cherokee-Rusk-
1218 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Oklahoma and
northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into
the overnight hours. Some of these storms could be severe, especially
from late this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail will be possible. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as discrete supercells and eventually congeal
into a linear complex. Given the strongly sheared environment, a few
of these tornadoes could be strong. Heavy rain and isolated flash
flooding may also become a concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and into
early Tuesday morning.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-126-
138-151>153-165>167-031200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Harrison-Panola-Nacogdoches-
Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1218 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into
the overnight hours. Some of these storms could be severe, especially
from late this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail will be possible. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as discrete supercells and eventually congeal
into a linear complex. Given the strongly sheared environment, a few
of these tornadoes could be strong. Heavy rain and isolated flash
flooding may also become a concern where training thunderstorms
occur. In these areas, widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is
expected, with locally higher amounts of 3 inches or more. Therefore,
a Flood Watch is in effect through Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Lingering showers and thunders will be possible in our eastern zones
as the line exits the region. A few of these may be strong to
severe. Once this line leaves the area in the late morning hours, no
additional hazardous weather threat is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon through
Tuesday morning.

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 PM CST MON JAN 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW NORPHLET          33.30N 92.71W
01/02/2023                   UNION              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
            REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER ALONG MURPHY
            LOOP ROAD. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

BB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
309 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

ARZ050-051-060-022145-
Howard AR-Hempstead AR-Sevier AR-
309 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Hempstead, east central Sevier and southeastern Howard Counties
through 345 PM CST...

At 309 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mineral Springs, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nashville, Mineral Springs, Corinth, Center Point, Muddy Fork and
Silver Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 9382 3401 9375 3399 9372 3379 9397
      3393 9412 3418 9387 3418 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 223DEG 33KT 3393 9399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
413 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

ARZ071-072-LAZ001>003-022300-
Lafayette AR-Columbia AR-Bossier LA-Caddo LA-Webster LA-
413 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Lafayette and southwestern Columbia Counties, northwestern Webster,
northwestern Caddo and northwestern Bossier Parishes through 500 PM
CST...

At 412 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belcher, or 18 miles north of Bossier City, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springhill, Benton, Cullen, Plain Dealing, Sarepta, Bradley, Taylor,
Belcher, Gilliam, Welcome, Alden Bridge, Rocky Mount, Cavett, State
Line and Bolinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southwestern
Arkansas...and northwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 9375 3276 9392 3320 9358 3303 9332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 217DEG 37KT 3276 9378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19