Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS San Diego, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
906 AM PST Mon Feb 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Another low pressure system diving into the Great Basin later this
evening will bring strong west winds to much of the region along
with light precipitation generally from the mountains westward,
heaviest precipitation in the coastal mountain slopes. A brief
period of Santa Ana winds will follow on Wednesday, favoring some
warming and drying. Cold morning low temperatures can then be
anticipated Wednesday and Thursday morning. Another low pressure
system looks to arrive later this weekend, though details on
specific impacts remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

9 AM Update: Showers continue to dissipate over the peninsular
mountain ranges and skies continue to clear this morning, so the
Winter Weather Advisories have been allowed to expire. A cool and
partly to mostly cloudy day is in store before the next in a
series of storms arrives. High Wind Warnings for the mountains and
deserts and Wind Advisories for the coastal regions are in effect
starting early Tuesday and lasting through Tuesday night. Lows
early Wednesday and Thursday morning look to fall substantially
below seasonal normals, and Frost/Freeze products may be needed
later this afternoon. No changes to the forecast appear necessary
this morning.

...Previous Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Showers are expected to end early this morning as a low pressure
system centered near Yuma moves eastward through Arizona today. A
low pressure system from the northwest on an inland track is
expected to bring cooling and periods of strong gusty west winds
for the mountains and deserts for late tonight into Tuesday
evening with the strongest winds along the desert slopes of the
mountains. Winds on the desert slopes of the San Diego County
mountains could gust to around 80 mph. Stronger winds over the
coastal waters will spread into coastal areas for late Tuesday
afternoon and evening with stronger gusts near the coast to 35 to
40 mph.

It will also be cooler with a chance of showers from the coast
inland to the mountains for late this evening through Tuesday
afternoon, ending from the northwest Tuesday evening. Rainfall
will mostly be one-tenth inch or less, but locally one-
quarter to one-half inch in the mountains. A snow level near 5500
feet will fall to 4500 feet on Tuesday and 3000 to 4000 feet
Tuesday evening with a few inches of snowfall above 5000 feet
possible.

Tuesday night will be colder with areas of frost in portions of
the high desert and in some of the lower-lying wind-sheltered
valleys. Wednesday will be dry and warmer with gusty north to
northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the
mountains. Wednesday night will be another cold night with areas
of frost.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
Continued dry and warmer for Thursday and Friday, but with Friday
high temperatures still a few degrees below average for coastal
areas to 5 to 10 degrees below average for the deserts.

For next weekend, a low pressure system from the northwest with
timing differences and greater track differences, could bring
showers at times but with low confidence with timing and amounts.
As with this past weekend, it appears San Diego County may once
again have the greater amounts, but with lower confidence in just
how much and when. For example for Palomar Mountain for early
Saturday through early Sunday, NBM has a 37 percent chance for no
measurable precipitation with a 50 percent chance for one inch or
more.

&&

.AVIATION...
131640Z...SCT030-080 through 02Z. After 02Z...SCT030-040 in the
evening becoming BKN-OVC025-035 with tops to 6000 ft tonight with
areas of light rain after 06z and continuing through 18Z Tuesday.
Mtns becmg obscd in clds and pcpn after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Watch is in effect Tuesday for strong northwest gales and
high seas over both the Inner and Outer Waters. The highest winds
and seas over the outer waters. Boating conditions will be hazardous

&&

.BEACHES...
A long-period swell and a storm swell will combine to generate
elevated surf of 4 to 6 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday in San Diego
County.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas.

     High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for Apple and
     Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-
     San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
     Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.

&&

PUBLIC...Adams (Update)/17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Moede

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1206 PM PST MON FEB 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     SNOW             5 SE MT SAN JACINTO     33.82N 116.65W
02/13/2023  M3.0 INCH        RIVERSIDE          CA   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            MT SAN JACINTO LONG VALLEY RANGER STATION
            TOP OF THE PALM SPRINGS TRAM AT 8400 FEET.

&&

AOT