Tornado Warning 9, NWS Springfield, MO

035 
WWUS53 KSGF 152202
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
502 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

MOC153-152211-
/O.CAN.KSGF.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230415T2215Z/
Ozark MO-
502 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OZARK COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3680 9225 3680 9244 3700 9216 3693 9209
      3681 9210 3679 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 233DEG 29KT 3683 9227 

$$

MOC067-152215-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230415T2215Z/
Douglas MO-
502 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...
    
At 501 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 17 miles northeast of Gainesville, or 20 miles southwest
of Willow Springs, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Bryant Creek State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3680 9225 3680 9244 3700 9216 3693 9209
      3681 9210 3679 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 233DEG 29KT 3683 9227 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

JD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Key Messages:

1. Severe storms this afternoon into the early evening.

2. Elevated to significant fire weather conditions on Sunday.
Additional elevated fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday.

3. Cool, dry and windy conditions Sunday with elevated to
significant fire danger, especially west of Springfield.
Additional elevated to significant fire danger on Monday, with
elevated fire weather conditions on Tuesday.

4. Slight Risk for severe storms next Thursday.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Severe storms have developed in western Missouri this afternoon
within the past hour, with hail up to golf ball size so far.
Temperatures have risen into the mid 70s to low 80s with dew
points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Surface based CAPE values were
in the 2000-3000 j/kg range. Not much low level rotation, but
getting some mid level rotation with the current supercells on
radar. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for all but
Bourbon and Crawford county KS until 7 pm.

Overall coverage is expected to increase over the next couple of
hours as the remaining inhibition weakens with time. Supercells
are still expected for the first several hours, but should start
to merge into a QLCS as we head into the late afternoon and early
evening. Initially, a large hail risk up to baseballs with the
supercells and will transition to a hail and wind risk as we start
merging into a QLCS. Most of the severe weather potential should
be east of the area by 8 to 9 pm.

Winds behind the front will become west to northwest this evening
and will remain gusty through the night.

Colder and drier air will move in behind the front tonight and
temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s. We
are not expecting any frost with winds remaining gusty and cloud
cover continuing.

A few showers will remain possible over central MO tonight as the
upper level wave begins to push through.

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions are expected on
Sunday afternoon as the air mass becomes very dry behind the upper
trough. Gusty winds are expected during the day and relative
humidity values are expected to dip into the 20s and 30s. Much
cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs only in the
mid 50s east to low 60s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Gusty winds and low afternoon humidity values are expected to
continue into Monday which will lead to another day with
significant fire weather conditions. Temperatures are expected to
warm back up into the upper 60s to low 70s as the upper pattern
begins to transition to more zonal flow and low level southerly
flow. By Monday night, we start to see a low level jet developing
into our western CWA along with some shortwave energy moving into
the central and southern plains. Can't rule out some shower
activity developing as early as Monday night.

Low level moisture starts increasing on Tuesday along with some
instability as afternoon temperatures rise into the mid to upper
70s.  Scattered convection will be possible on Tuesday.

Surface low pressure will strengthen over the plains on Wednesday
with some shortwave energy moving in from the southwest. Will
continue convection chances over the area. This main surface front
will push through on Thursday. While the best synoptic scale lift
looks to be north of the area, instability does increase ahead of
the cold front and we could see some strong to severe weather
potential with the cold front. The main upper wave will still be
west of the area and could bring additional showers/thunderstorms
to the area on Friday, however there are still some fairly big
model differences with this and pops on Friday will be on the
lower side at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

For the 18z TAFS, some radar echoes starting to develop out west
in the better CAPE and CU field. Should see convective initiation
within the next hour or 2 and then spreading east across the
remainder of the CWA through around 00z-01z. Have used a VCTS
wording in JLN as they will be right on the edge of convective
inititation, but will mainly be affecting the SGF/BBG locations
between 19z-22z. Will likely see some IFR conditions with the
convection and then again behind the front with a stratus deck.
Winds will become westerly to northwesterly behind the front and
remain gusty through the remainder of the period with some gusts
up to 25 kts possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-162015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
305 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon.
  Supercells with large hail to the size of baseballs will be
  possible initially through the mid to late afternoon. As the
  storms develop into more of a line, the storm mode will
  transition to more of a wind risk with wind gusts in excess of
  60 mph possible. The transition to more of a linear structure
  should take place generally along and east of US 65. An isolated
  tornado will be possible, mainly after the transition to a line.
  The severe thunderstorm risk should end from west to east during
  the late afternoon to early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

  Elevated to significant fire danger will develop across
  portions of the area on Sunday, with elevated fire weather
  conditions lingering into Monday and Tuesday. Wind gusts on
  Sunday could reach up to 45 mph.

  There is low potential for a few thunderstorms from Monday
  night into Tuesday morning and again on Wednesday. There is then
  increasing potential for thunderstorms from Wednesday night
  into Thursday with another approaching storm system. There is a
  limited risk for severe storms next Thursday across portions of
  the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon for areas
  east of highway 65.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE TABLE ROCK         36.64N 93.27W
04/15/2023                   TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING, 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN,
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
431 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             CROCKER                 37.96N 92.26W
04/15/2023  U1.00 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING, QUARTER, 1.00 IN.

&&

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
437 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             2 E MONETT              36.92N 93.89W
04/15/2023  E1.00 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            EMAIL WITH PICTURES.

&&

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
440 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             2 NNW BOLIVAR           37.64N 93.42W
04/15/2023  E2.00 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO PLASTIC DECK STORAGE, SIDING,
            WINDOW SCREENS.

&&

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
441 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             3 WSW WALNUT SHADE      36.72N 93.25W
04/15/2023  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            EMAIL WITH PICTURES.

&&

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
446 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW VICHY             38.13N 91.77W
04/15/2023  E97 MPH          MARIES             MO   ASOS

&&

RN