Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Key Messages:

1. Severe storms this afternoon into the early evening.

2. Elevated to significant fire weather conditions on Sunday.
Additional elevated fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday.

3. Cool, dry and windy conditions Sunday with elevated to
significant fire danger, especially west of Springfield.
Additional elevated to significant fire danger on Monday, with
elevated fire weather conditions on Tuesday.

4. Slight Risk for severe storms next Thursday.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Severe storms have developed in western Missouri this afternoon
within the past hour, with hail up to golf ball size so far.
Temperatures have risen into the mid 70s to low 80s with dew
points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Surface based CAPE values were
in the 2000-3000 j/kg range. Not much low level rotation, but
getting some mid level rotation with the current supercells on
radar. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for all but
Bourbon and Crawford county KS until 7 pm.

Overall coverage is expected to increase over the next couple of
hours as the remaining inhibition weakens with time. Supercells
are still expected for the first several hours, but should start
to merge into a QLCS as we head into the late afternoon and early
evening. Initially, a large hail risk up to baseballs with the
supercells and will transition to a hail and wind risk as we start
merging into a QLCS. Most of the severe weather potential should
be east of the area by 8 to 9 pm.

Winds behind the front will become west to northwest this evening
and will remain gusty through the night.

Colder and drier air will move in behind the front tonight and
temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s. We
are not expecting any frost with winds remaining gusty and cloud
cover continuing.

A few showers will remain possible over central MO tonight as the
upper level wave begins to push through.

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions are expected on
Sunday afternoon as the air mass becomes very dry behind the upper
trough. Gusty winds are expected during the day and relative
humidity values are expected to dip into the 20s and 30s. Much
cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs only in the
mid 50s east to low 60s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Gusty winds and low afternoon humidity values are expected to
continue into Monday which will lead to another day with
significant fire weather conditions. Temperatures are expected to
warm back up into the upper 60s to low 70s as the upper pattern
begins to transition to more zonal flow and low level southerly
flow. By Monday night, we start to see a low level jet developing
into our western CWA along with some shortwave energy moving into
the central and southern plains. Can't rule out some shower
activity developing as early as Monday night.

Low level moisture starts increasing on Tuesday along with some
instability as afternoon temperatures rise into the mid to upper
70s.  Scattered convection will be possible on Tuesday.

Surface low pressure will strengthen over the plains on Wednesday
with some shortwave energy moving in from the southwest. Will
continue convection chances over the area. This main surface front
will push through on Thursday. While the best synoptic scale lift
looks to be north of the area, instability does increase ahead of
the cold front and we could see some strong to severe weather
potential with the cold front. The main upper wave will still be
west of the area and could bring additional showers/thunderstorms
to the area on Friday, however there are still some fairly big
model differences with this and pops on Friday will be on the
lower side at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

For the 18z TAFS, some radar echoes starting to develop out west
in the better CAPE and CU field. Should see convective initiation
within the next hour or 2 and then spreading east across the
remainder of the CWA through around 00z-01z. Have used a VCTS
wording in JLN as they will be right on the edge of convective
inititation, but will mainly be affecting the SGF/BBG locations
between 19z-22z. Will likely see some IFR conditions with the
convection and then again behind the front with a stratus deck.
Winds will become westerly to northwesterly behind the front and
remain gusty through the remainder of the period with some gusts
up to 25 kts possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
442 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160945-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
442 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Weakening showers and thunderstorms will move into southeast
Kansas and west central Missouri early this morning and into
central Missouri through mid-morning. Severe weather is not
expected with this round, but very small hail and brief gusty
winds are still possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon beginning as
far west as the Interstate 49 corridor, with higher confidence
along and east of the Highway 65 corridor. These storms will exit
the eastern Ozarks by mid evening.

The main threats with these storms will be very large hail up to
the size of baseballs and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. There
is a very low threat for isolated tornadoes. Some localized heavy
rainfall is also possible with these storms, but widespread
flooding is not expected.

Elevated to significant fire danger will develop across portions
of the area on Sunday, with elevated fire weather conditions
lingering into Monday and Tuesday. Wind gusts on Sunday could
reach up to 45 mph.

There is low potential for a few thunderstorms from Monday night
into Tuesday morning and again on Wednesday. There is then
increasing potential for thunderstorms from Wednesday night into
Thursday with another approaching storm system. There is a limited
risk for severe storms next Thursday across portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for
areas east of Interstate 49.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Rothstein

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