Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
311 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Key Messages:

1. Potential for significant severe thunderstorms including
dangerous large hail and tornadoes through this morning.

2. Cooler and drier weather Wednesday through Friday. Monitor for
frost potential Thursday and Friday mornings.

3. Elevated fire weather conditions may occur Thursday and Friday.

4. Warming trend through the weekend into early next week.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Early this morning, the region was situated between two areas of
strong to severe convection. Storms moving out of Arkansas were
impacting far south central Missouri and a cold front moving
across eastern Kansas will move across the region over the through
this morning. A 04z sounding from Springfield showed the cap had
weakened with only 29 j/kg of CINH.

In advance of the front, an unstable airmass has been in place
since yesterday evening thanks to a strong cap across the Ozarks.
Over the past 8 hours the cap has eroded allowing severe storms to
develop along the front. MUCape values along and ahead of the
front was in the 2000 to 3000 j/kg range with nearly 50 to 60kts
of bulk shear and a destabilizing atmosphere. A strong 50-60kt
LLJ will combined with good upper level diffluence from a strong
upper jet max will aid in storm development. With the addition of
frontal lift, all modes of severe weather are expected as the
front moves across the Ozarks this morning.

South winds across the Ozarks was continuing to bring warm and
moist air into the area and will provide fuel for continued
severe weather. Expectations are for a few tornadoes, large hail
to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds to 70 mph.

The front is expected to move through the Ozarks by Noon with
clearing skies and cooler temperatures moving in behind the front
as winds turn out of the northwest. Afternoon temperatures will
likely only be in the 50s for areas generally west of Highway 56
and in the 60s to the east.

With cold air advection ongoing tonight temperatures will fall
into the 30s. Most locations should see winds remain around 10mph
which should limit and frost potential to locations sheltered
from the wind

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Cooler and drier air will continue Thursday with afternoon highs
in the upper 50s to around 60. With the region remaining under the
influence of high pressure into Friday another chilly night is
expected with frost likely Friday morning. The best chances would
be generally along and north of I-44, but later forecasts will
better place the areas of frost concern. Dry air may limit frost
potential with temperatures at or near freezing occurring around
sunrise. Continue to monitor for potential frost or freeze.

A warming trend is expected to begin Friday and continue through
the weekend once the high pressure moves east of the region. This
will bring the potential for lower RH values and increasing winds
which may result in some elevated fire concerns on Friday. Recent
trends in the "green up" around the area will begin to suppress
fire weather concerns over the coming weeks. Afternoon highs will
be in the middle 60s on Friday.

The warming trend continues into Saturday and Sunday. A pleasant
weekend is expected with mostly dry conditions as highs climb into
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Heading into next week and beyond, the pattern favors above normal
temperatures and drier weather with highs around 80 to the lower
80s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

High overcast cloud cover will remain in place overnight as a
front approaches the region. Initially, VFR conditions will
continue ahead of the front with some low level wind shear through
part of the overnight into the near sunrise period.

A cold front will move through the Ozarks region through the
early morning hours. This will bring the potential for MVFR to IFR
flight conditions as the front and storms move through the
region. Winds will shift from southerly to northerly as the front
move through.

Flight conditions will improve to VFR for most of the area by mid
morning behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
800 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
800 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk
  Elevated non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop from 8pm to
midnight. Supercells that develop during this time pose the risk
for large hail up to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds up
to 70 mph and tornadoes. There remains a concern for isolated
strong tornadoes during the night time hours for locations along
and east of Springfield.

After midnight, an additional round of thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the cold front. This would be a line of
thunderstorms posing the risk of hail up to the size of quarters,
damaging winds and tornadoes. The flooding threat remains low with
this system.

Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph are likely across the area this
afternoon through tonight outside of any thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

A cooler air mass will move into the region behind the system
Wednesday through Friday and there is the potential for frost
during these mid to late week mornings. Given the dry air in
place, elevated fire weather conditions will develop Wednesday and
again Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for most
of the region.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT WED APR 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 AM     HAIL             4 W HALLOWELL           37.17N 95.06W
04/05/2023  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

TITUS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
326 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

MOZ056-050900-
Morgan MO-
326 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Morgan
County through 400 AM CDT...

At 326 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stover, or near Versailles, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Versailles, Stover, Syracuse and Florence.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9293 3868 9284 3860 9284 3843 9263
      3842 9263 3833 9300 3848 9307 3855 9306
      3866 9306 3869 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 248DEG 50KT 3850 9291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise