Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Key Messages:

1. Severe thunderstorms expected tonight. All modes of severe
weather are possible, along with flooding.

2. A Flood Watch is in effect for a large portion of the area
from 7 PM tonight through 7 AM Monday morning.

3. Below normal temperatures in the upper 70s into the 80s will
occur through the first half of next week before temperatures
climb again into the 90s by next weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area from 7 PM tonight
through 7 AM Monday morning. Scattered showers are ongoing across
central Missouri as a shortwave trough continues to push east
through the state. Skies are still mostly cloudy temperatures are
already warming up into the upper 70s across the area. As the LLJ
over the Central Plains continues to weaken through the afternoon,
rain and clouds should dissipate over the next couple of hours.
Then, that will provide an opportunity for the area to heat up and
cause the atmosphere to destabilize once again. Looking at forecast
soundings across the area, convective temperatures will need to be
in the upper 80s. Which, if skies continue to clear out, won't be
too hard to reach for most of the area. This will create a favorable
environment for severe weather to occur over the CWA this evening.

Synoptic overview for tonight:

Shortwave currently pushing through the state will be followed by a
much larger trough pushing east through the Great Lakes region. This
low will drag a cold front through Missouri at the same time that a
warm front begins to push north from central Arkansas. Where these
boundaries meet is where SPC has an Enhanced Risk for severe weather
for today, which happens to be just about all of the SGF CWA. The
intersection of air masses will cause a destabilized atmosphere to be
conducive for all modes of severe weather this evening such as 70
mph damaging winds and golf ball sized hail. CAMs are showing that
this event will be favorable for messy, merging supercells at the
beginning. During this time, the environment will be favorable for
tornadoes to occur with forecast sounding wind profiles showing
veering winds with curved hodographs. Eventually, these storms will
turn into a bowing west to east line segment once it becomes more
organized. This line will then push south from central Missouri to
the MO/AR border.

Flooding Risk:

There is a flooding risk with these storms tonight as training looks
likely along the warm front. A 30-40 kt LLJ will form over Arkansas
tonight and will pump moisture into the Ozarks region overnight
through Monday morning. Once this Gulf moisture meets the west to
east oriented warm front over southern Missouri, backbuilding storms
are expected to form over southeastern Kansas and move east into
southwestern Missouri along the front. Ensembles show good agreement
of mean PWAT values exceeding 2.0 inches, which is above the 90th
percentile, and approaching the climatological maximum. HREF LPMM
shows a swatch of widespread QPF of 2 to 4 inches with localized
pockets of up to 7 inches. WPC has the SGF CWA in a Moderate Risk
for excessive rainfall today which means numerous flash floods
likely and many streams may flood and affect the larger rivers. Due
to the increasing confidence in flooding potential, have added a few
more counties in the NE CWA to the flood watch for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Once the cold front moves through tonight, the start of the week
will be pleasant through Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Then towards the end of the week, a ridge builds back in
over the Central Plains region and warms temperatures back up into
the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

For the 00z TAFS, convection is expected to expand in coverage
over the area this evening and into the overnight areas, most
likely starting to affect the TAF sites after 02z. Prior to the
convection, VFR conditions are expected, with MVFR and IFR within
the convection. Also, variable and gusty winds will be possible
within the thunderstorms as they push through, with some gusts
possibly becoming severe. Should see improving conditions after
12z on Monday, becoming VFR with some gusty winds by mid to late
morning out of the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ057-058-068>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
748 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
748 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms will be possible this evening into the
overnight hours, with all modes of severe storms possible.
Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. A severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect until 2 am.

Additionally, a Flood Watch is in effect from 7 PM this evening
until 7 AM Monday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4
inches, with localized higher amounts around 7 inches will pose a
flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Below normal temperatures will occur through the beginning of the
week before temperatures climb back up into the 90s by next
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening for across
southeast Kansas into southwest and west central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
858 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

KSZ097-101-MOZ077-088-140230-
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-Barton MO-Jasper MO-
858 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...
CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN BARTON AND NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES
THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 858 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Girard, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg, Prairie State Park, Frontenac, Girard, Arma, Cherokee,
Weir, Chicopee, Nashville, Mindenmines, Franklin, Walnut, Asbury,
Beulah, Opolis, Greenbush, Yale, Ringo, Lone Oak and Brazilton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 9509 3749 9442 3723 9451 3739 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 283DEG 29KT 3744 9487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Didio

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
934 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     Hail             1 N Monett              36.94N 93.93W
08/13/2023  E1.00 inch       Lawrence           MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
946 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Pierce City       36.90N 94.02W
08/13/2023  M61 MPH          Barry              MO   AWOS

            AWOS station KHFJ Monett AWOS.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
954 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

MOZ077-088-140330-
Barton MO-Jasper MO-
954 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BARTON AND CENTRAL
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 954 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alba, or near Carthage, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Joplin, Carthage, Webb City, Carl Junction, Oronogo,
Carterville, Jasper, Airport Drive, Alba, Purcell, Nashville,
Carytown, Neck City, Brooklyn Heights, Waco, Dudenville, Oakland Park
and Maple Grove.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 43 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 9447 3731 9408 3729 9408 3729 9405
      3725 9405 3723 9406 3719 9430 3710 9447
      3716 9462 3723 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 285DEG 40KT 3721 9442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Didio

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