Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Springfield, MO

423 
WGUS73 KSGF 140707
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

MOC009-119-141100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-230814T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barry MO-McDonald MO-
207 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN BARRY AND SOUTHERN MCDONALD COUNTIES...

At 207 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Cassville, Pineville, Noel, South West City, Seligman, Washburn, 
  Lanagan, Dodge, Shell Knob, Golden, Emerald Beach, Eagle Rock, 
  Cayuga, Chain-O-Lakes, Arrow Point, Wayne, Table Rock Lake and 
  Roaring River State Park.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  Rockhouse Creek at Farm Road 2145, Butler Creek at Kings Highway, 
  Bentonville Hollow at Highway E, Little Sugar Creek at Skaggs 
  Hollow Road, Honey Creek at Oak Street, Greasy Creek at Farm Road 
  2290 and Big Sugar Creek at Buzzard Glory Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Many flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 9462 3660 9408 3679 9358 3650 9358
      3650 9462

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Key Messages:

1. Severe thunderstorms expected tonight. All modes of severe
weather are possible, along with flooding.

2. A Flood Watch is in effect for a large portion of the area
from 7 PM tonight through 7 AM Monday morning.

3. Below normal temperatures in the upper 70s into the 80s will
occur through the first half of next week before temperatures
climb again into the 90s by next weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area from 7 PM tonight
through 7 AM Monday morning. Scattered showers are ongoing across
central Missouri as a shortwave trough continues to push east
through the state. Skies are still mostly cloudy temperatures are
already warming up into the upper 70s across the area. As the LLJ
over the Central Plains continues to weaken through the afternoon,
rain and clouds should dissipate over the next couple of hours.
Then, that will provide an opportunity for the area to heat up and
cause the atmosphere to destabilize once again. Looking at forecast
soundings across the area, convective temperatures will need to be
in the upper 80s. Which, if skies continue to clear out, won't be
too hard to reach for most of the area. This will create a favorable
environment for severe weather to occur over the CWA this evening.

Synoptic overview for tonight:

Shortwave currently pushing through the state will be followed by a
much larger trough pushing east through the Great Lakes region. This
low will drag a cold front through Missouri at the same time that a
warm front begins to push north from central Arkansas. Where these
boundaries meet is where SPC has an Enhanced Risk for severe weather
for today, which happens to be just about all of the SGF CWA. The
intersection of air masses will cause a destabilized atmosphere to be
conducive for all modes of severe weather this evening such as 70
mph damaging winds and golf ball sized hail. CAMs are showing that
this event will be favorable for messy, merging supercells at the
beginning. During this time, the environment will be favorable for
tornadoes to occur with forecast sounding wind profiles showing
veering winds with curved hodographs. Eventually, these storms will
turn into a bowing west to east line segment once it becomes more
organized. This line will then push south from central Missouri to
the MO/AR border.

Flooding Risk:

There is a flooding risk with these storms tonight as training looks
likely along the warm front. A 30-40 kt LLJ will form over Arkansas
tonight and will pump moisture into the Ozarks region overnight
through Monday morning. Once this Gulf moisture meets the west to
east oriented warm front over southern Missouri, backbuilding storms
are expected to form over southeastern Kansas and move east into
southwestern Missouri along the front. Ensembles show good agreement
of mean PWAT values exceeding 2.0 inches, which is above the 90th
percentile, and approaching the climatological maximum. HREF LPMM
shows a swatch of widespread QPF of 2 to 4 inches with localized
pockets of up to 7 inches. WPC has the SGF CWA in a Moderate Risk
for excessive rainfall today which means numerous flash floods
likely and many streams may flood and affect the larger rivers. Due
to the increasing confidence in flooding potential, have added a few
more counties in the NE CWA to the flood watch for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Once the cold front moves through tonight, the start of the week
will be pleasant through Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Then towards the end of the week, a ridge builds back in
over the Central Plains region and warms temperatures back up into
the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

For the 00z TAFS, convection is expected to expand in coverage
over the area this evening and into the overnight areas, most
likely starting to affect the TAF sites after 02z. Prior to the
convection, VFR conditions are expected, with MVFR and IFR within
the convection. Also, variable and gusty winds will be possible
within the thunderstorms as they push through, with some gusts
possibly becoming severe. Should see improving conditions after
12z on Monday, becoming VFR with some gusty winds by mid to late
morning out of the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ057-058-068>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
748 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
748 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms will be possible this evening into the
overnight hours, with all modes of severe storms possible.
Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. A severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect until 2 am.

Additionally, a Flood Watch is in effect from 7 PM this evening
until 7 AM Monday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4
inches, with localized higher amounts around 7 inches will pose a
flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Below normal temperatures will occur through the beginning of the
week before temperatures climb back up into the 90s by next
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening for across
southeast Kansas into southwest and west central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1101 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Forsyth                 36.68N 93.11W
08/13/2023                   Taney              MO   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken;
            Shingles blown off.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1110 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     Flood            2 ENE Merriam Woods     36.73N 93.14W
08/13/2023                   Taney              MO   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1128 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     Flood            2 W Branch              37.91N 93.05W
08/13/2023                   Camden             MO   Amateur Radio

            Tree down on house.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1139 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Macks Creek             37.97N 92.97W
08/13/2023                   Camden             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Four to five inch tree limbs down. Time
            based on radar estimate.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NNE Decaturville      37.97N 92.68W
08/13/2023  M58 MPH          Camden             MO   AWOS

            AWOS station KOZS Camdenton AWOS.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sarcoxie                37.07N 94.12W
08/13/2023                   Jasper             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down near 6th/Church intersection -
            size approx. 18-24 in diameter.

&&

TEO