Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO

805 
WWUS83 KSGF 310801
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions this Afternoon and Evening...

MOZ104-010300-
/O.EXA.KSGF.FW.W.0002.230331T1900Z-230401T0300Z/
Taney-
301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST 
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a Red Flag
Warning for strong wind and low humidity, which is in effect from
2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Missouri, Fire Weather Zone 104.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 28 percent.

* WIND...West to southwest winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45- 
  55 mph.

* HUMIDITY...18-28 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-056-066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103-
010300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0002.230331T1900Z-230401T0300Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-
Camden-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-Laclede-Jasper-Dade-Greene-
Webster-Newton-Lawrence-Christian-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR 
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas...Fire weather zones 073, 097, and
  101. In Missouri...Fire weather zones 055, 056, 066, 067, 068,
  069, 077, 078, 079, 080, 081, 088, 089, 090, 091, 093, 094, 095, 
  101, 102, and 103.
 
* WIND...West to southwest winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50- 
  60 mph.

* HUMIDITY...18-28 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

931 
WWUS83 KSGF 311858
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
158 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions this Afternoon and Evening...

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-056-066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104-
010300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0002.230331T1900Z-230401T0300Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-
Camden-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-Laclede-Jasper-Dade-Greene-
Webster-Newton-Lawrence-Christian-McDonald-Barry-Stone-Taney-
158 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas...Fire weather zones 073, 097, and 
  101. In Missouri...Fire weather zones 055, 056, 066, 067, 068, 
  069, 077, 078, 079, 080, 081, 088, 089, 090, 091, 093, 094, 
  095, 101, 102, and 103. 

* WIND...West to southwest winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 45- 
  60 mph.

* HUMIDITY...15-25 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
 Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Schaumann

860 
WWUS83 KSGF 010257
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
957 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023



KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-056-066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104-
010400-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T0300Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-
Camden-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-Laclede-Jasper-Dade-Greene-
Webster-Newton-Lawrence-Christian-McDonald-Barry-Stone-Taney-
957 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERY
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 055, 056, 066, 
067, 068, 069, 073, 077, 078, 079, 080, 081, 088, 089, 090, 091, 
093, 094, 095, 097, 101, 101, 102, 103, AND 104...

Winds have diminished significantly this evening. The air remains
very dry at the surface with humidity levels still in the teens
and the 20s and elevated to locally significant fire weather
conditions will continue tonight. With the wind significantly
diminishing, the red flag warning will be allowed to expire at 10
pm.

$$

Lindenberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Key Messages:

1. Gusty southerly winds will develop across the area today and
tonight, with the strongest winds Friday. Winds gusts up to 45 to
55 mph will develop across the region on Friday. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for the western portions of the area tonight
through Friday and the eastern portions of the area Friday through
Saturday morning.

2. Scattered thunderstorms will occur at times from late this
afternoon into early Friday morning. A strong storm or two with
small hail and gusty winds will be possible. Additional storms
will develop across the area Friday afternoon and evening. There
is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms east of Highway 65
Friday. There will also be the potential for localized flooding
on Friday.

3. Critical fire weather conditions due to dry air and strong
winds will develop across portions of southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri Friday afternoon and evening. A Fire Weather
Watch remains in affect.

4. Active weather pattern returns next week, including severe
thunderstorm potential during the middle of next week. Though
there are still questions on timing and track of this system.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday tonight)
Issued at 400 CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

An upper level trough is currently located across California
early this morning. The trough will move east today and into the
central Plains on Friday. Surface low pressure will develop ahead
of the upper level trough and move into the central Plains by this
evening and into Iowa on Friday.

Southerly winds will develop ahead of the system today as warmer
air advects north into the region. Gusty southerly winds will
develop this afternoon with winds increasing into Friday as the
surface low moves east into and across the plains. Wind gusts up
to 30 mph will occur this afternoon with winds increasing this
evening and tonight with wind gusts up to 45 mph. A tighter
pressure gradient and mixing will allow gusts of 45 to 55 mph to
develop across the area on Friday. Gusty winds will continue
across the eastern Ozarks into Saturday morning. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for portions of southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri from tonight into Friday evening, across south central
Missouri Friday afternoon and evening, and across central Missouri
Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Scattered showers and elevated storms will develop across the
area from late this afternoon into tonight, as uncapped elevated
instability develops across the area. There will also be lift
ahead of the system within the warm air advection. Deep layer
shear will also increase across the area as the upper level trough
approaches from the west. As a result a few strong storms will be
possible into tonight. Since the storms will not be surface based
the main risk will be hail of pennies to quarters. There could
also be gusty winds will a few storms.

By Friday morning the cap will start to increase across the area
and the scattered storms will move off to the east. As the
surface low moves across Iowa a dry line will move east across the
area. The cap will be strong early Friday morning but will start
to weaken by midday and during the afternoon hours. There may not
be much storm development on the dry line as it first moves into
the area but as the cap starts to weaken storms should start to
develop. The questions will be the coverage, as first it may be
more isolated in scattered in nature but as the storms move east
coverage should increase, which may be east of the area before
the coverage really starts to increase. MLCAPE will likely be
around 1000-1500 J/kg across the area and deep layer shear will
be quite strong. Supercells will likely be the storms that
develop first and storm movement will be very fast to the
northeast. The storms will likely develop into a line as it moves
to the east, but again this will likely be over the eastern
portions of the area and points to the east. The better potential
for storms and coverage will be east of Highway 65 where The
Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Severe Risk for
Friday. Though the coverage may be lower west of Hwy 65, any
storms that does develop will have the potential to be severe.
Damaging straight line winds are the most likely risk across the
area on Friday. The risk for tornadoes and large hail up to the
size of ping pong balls will mainly be east of highway 65 and on
to the east and southeast of the area. Some localized flooding may
occur over south central Missouri Friday as a result of the
rainfall and wet soil conditions, though widespread flooding is
not expected. The storms again will be moving really fast and will
possibly be east of the area by Friday evening if not quicker.

Temperatures will not cool much behind the dry line but a much
drier air mass will quickly move into the area. Strong gusty winds
will be occurring which will lead to potentially critical fire
weather conditions across at least southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri. These locations will also most likely see the
least amount of rain with this system. It's quite possible the
risk could expand eastward some especially for areas that don't
see a lot of rain on Friday across the western Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

A cooler air mass will move into the area on Saturday into Sunday
morning as high warm into the 50s and lows fall into the 30s.
There could be the potential for some frost across the eastern
Ozarks Sunday morning.

An upper level ridge will build over the region late this weekend
into early next week. Highs in the 70s will occur on Sunday then
Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will occur on Monday and
Tuesday. The ensembles are in good agreement with the warm
temperatures with little spread.

Another system will then track into the remain Tuesday into
Wednesday bringing additional showers and storms to the region.
There will be the potential for severe weather with this system
across the region. There are still questions on the exact track
and timing with this system but something we will need to keep an
eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

A strong low pressure system will bring multiple aviation impacts
to southern Missouri from tonight into Friday. First off,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop from late this
afternoon into this evening. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around storms. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will develop
across much of southern Missouri outside of storms.

Meanwhile, brisk southerly winds will develop from later this
afternoon into tonight with surface gusts around 30 knots. Low
level wind shear will also develop later this evening and will
persist into early Friday morning.

There will then be the potential for scattered thunderstorms
starting late Friday morning into Friday afternoon around the
vicinity of the Springfield and Branson aerodromes. Probabilities
are in the 30-40% range, so have opted for a PROB30 group.

Surface winds will continue to increase on Friday and will shift
to southwesterly in the afternoon. Gusts of 35-45 knots are
expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ066-067-
     077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for MOZ066-067-077-078-088.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ055>058-068>071-080-081.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ082-
     083-091-092-096>098-105-106.

KS...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-310800-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
257 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Gusty southerly winds will develop this afternoon with winds
  increasing tonight into Friday. Winds gusts up to 30 mph will
  occur this afternoon with wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph this
  evening and tonight.

  Scattered thunderstorms will develop at times from late this
  afternoon through the overnight hours. The overall severe risk
  is low but a few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds
  will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Strong to severe storms will impact portions of the Missouri
  Ozarks and possibly southeast Kansas, starting sometime around
  midday on Friday and moving eastward across the area through
  the afternoon exiting the area by the early evening hours.
  Storms will be possible across the entire area but the better
  potential and coverage will be east of Highway 65 Friday
  afternoon.

  Damaging straight line winds are the most likely risk across the
  area. The risk for tornadoes and large hail up to the size of
  ping pong balls will mainly be east of highway 65. Some localized
  flooding may occur over south central Missouri Friday as a result
  of the rainfall and wet soil conditions, though widespread
  flooding is not expected.

  Wind gusts up to 45 to 55 mph will develop across the region on
  Friday.

  Gusty winds and dry air Friday afternoon and evening may
  lead to critical fire danger over southeastern Kansas and
  portions of western Missouri.

  Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday into
  Wednesday next week. Potential exists for strong to severe
  thunderstorms, but many details remain unclear at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise