Wind Advisory 6, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

951 
WWUS71 KRNK 271606
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-280000-
/O.NEW.KRNK.HW.W.0001.230228T0100Z-230228T1400Z/
/O.EXT.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.230227T2200Z-230228T0100Z/
Ashe-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Independence, 
Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 40 mph with
  gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the Wind Advisory, southwest
  winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties. In 
  Virginia, Grayson County.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 9 
  AM EST Tuesday. For the Wind Advisory, from 5 PM this 
  afternoon to 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts can blow down trees and power lines
  causing power outages. Travel will be difficult, especially for
  high profile vehicles and particularly on north-south oriented 
  roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 3500 ft will experience
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur in the time
  frame of 8 PM EST this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive, especially at the higher elevations.

&&

$$

NCZ002-VAZ016-280000-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.230228T0300Z-230228T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.HW.W.0001.230228T0100Z-230228T1400Z/
Alleghany NC-Carroll-
Including the cities of Sparta and Galax
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Alleghany NC County. In Virginia, 
  Carroll County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts can blow down trees and power lines
  causing power outages Travel will be difficult, especially for
  high profile vehicles and particularly on north-south oriented
  roadways, such as Interstate 77 between the North Carolina state
  line and Hillsville, VA.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 3500 ft will experience
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur in the time
  frame of 8 PM EST this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive, especially at higher elevations.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ032-033-280000-
/O.EXB.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.230228T0100Z-230228T1400Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Patrick-Franklin-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Stuart, 
and Rocky Mount
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Surry and Wilkes Counties. In 
  Virginia, Patrick and Franklin Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and scattered power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 2500 ft will experience 
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur in the time 
  frame of 8 PM EST this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

VAZ007-009-280000-
/O.EXT.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.230227T2200Z-230228T1400Z/
Tazewell-Smyth-
Including the cities of Tazewell and Marion
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds Becoming West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  50 expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Tazewell and Smyth counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and smaller trees could be blown down resulting in 
  a few power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 3500 feet could have gusts
  up to 50 mph Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

VAZ010>014-017>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-280000-
/O.EXT.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.230228T0100Z-230228T1400Z/
Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, 
Pulaski, Blacksburg, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington,
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, 
Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, 
Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, 
and Rainelle
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest North Carolina, central, south 
  central, southwest and west central Virginia and southeast 
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and scattered power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 2500 ft will experience 
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur in the time 
  frame of 8 PM EST this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RAB

831 
WWUS71 KRNK 272337
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
637 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-280900-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.230228T0100Z-230228T1400Z/
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230228T0100Z/
Ashe-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Independence, 
Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
637 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 40 mph with 
  gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the Wind Advisory, southwest 
  winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties. In 
  Virginia, Grayson County.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 9 
  AM EST Tuesday. For the Wind Advisory, from 5 PM this 
  afternoon to 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts can blow down trees and power 
  lines causing power outages. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles and particularly on north-
  south oriented roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 3500 ft will experience 
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur in the 
  time frame of 8 PM EST this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday 
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ002-VAZ016-280900-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.230228T0100Z-230228T1400Z/
Alleghany NC-Carroll-
Including the cities of Sparta and Galax
637 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Alleghany NC County. In Virginia, 
  Carroll County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts can blow down trees and power 
  lines causing power outages Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles and particularly on north-
  south oriented roadways, such as Interstate 77 between the 
  North Carolina state line and Hillsville, VA.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 3500 ft will experience 
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur in the 
  time frame of 8 PM EST this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday 
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ010>014-017>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
280900-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.230228T0100Z-230228T1400Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Bland, Pearisburg, 
Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Floyd, New Castle, 
Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle,
Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, 
Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, 
White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
637 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Surry and Wilkes Counties. In 
  Virginia, Patrick and Franklin Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and scattered power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 2500 ft will experience 
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur in the 
  time frame of 8 PM EST this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday 
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

VAZ007-009-280900-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Tazewell-Smyth-
Including the cities of Tazewell and Marion
637 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds Becoming West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  50 expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Tazewell and Smyth counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and smaller trees could be blown down resulting in 
  a few power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 3500 feet could have 
  gusts up to 50 mph Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

507 
WWUS71 KRNK 280145
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
845 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-016-281000-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, and Galax
845 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties. In 
  Virginia, Grayson County.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts can blow down trees and power 
  lines causing power outages. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles and particularly on north-
   south oriented roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 3500 ft will experience
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur through 6 
  AM EST Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ007-009>014-017>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-
508-281000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, 
Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, 
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, 
Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo,
and Rainelle
845 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Surry and Wilkes Counties. In 
  Virginia, Patrick and Franklin Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and scattered power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 2500 ft will experience
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur through 6 
  AM EST Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

574 
WWUS71 KRNK 280857
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-016-281400-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, and Galax
357 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties. In 
  Virginia, Grayson County.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts can blow down trees and power 
  lines causing power outages. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles and particularly on north-
   south oriented roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 3500 ft will experience 
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur through 6 
  AM EST Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ007-009>014-017>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-
508-281400-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, 
Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, 
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, 
Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo,
and Rainelle
357 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Surry and Wilkes Counties. In 
  Virginia, Patrick and Franklin Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and scattered power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 2500 ft will experience 
  the highest wind gusts, which are expected to occur through 6 
  AM EST Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

582 
WWUS71 KRNK 281403
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
903 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-016-281515-
/O.EXP.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, and Galax
903 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have decreased below warning thresholds. Therefore, the
warning has been allowed to expire. Some isolated gusts of 35 to 
45 mph are still possible through 1100 AM EST.

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ007-009>014-017>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-
508-281515-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, 
Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, 
Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, 
Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, 
Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo,
and Rainelle
903 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have decreased below advisory levels. Therefore, the
advisory has been allowed to expire. Some isolated gusts of 30 to
40 mph are still possible through 1100 AM EST.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1234 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front boundary to our south will lift north as a
warm front late tonight into Monday. Strong low pressure pushing
into the Great Lakes Monday afternoon into Monday night will
sweep a cold front across the region Monday evening. Wind and
more rain is expected with this system. Winds will become quite
gusty Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1223 AM EST Monday...

Low level stratocu across the Mountain Empire into the NC
mountains associated with some upslope and lift ahead of a warm
front. Models are favoring a chance for light rain developing in
this area by 3-4am then lifting northeast into the rest of the
mountains, mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge through mid
morning as better isentropic lift occurs. Still not a lot of
rainfall, so overall kept pops in the chance range with highest
across the Alleghanys VA into WV.

Otherwise expect increasing clouds and some gusty southeast
winds after 12z across the SE WV/far SW VA into NC mtns, but
sub-advisory as strongest low level jet will be west of this
area.

Previous discussion...

Made some minor adjustments to temperatures this evening into
tonight utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends and
blended in the NBM. Clouds will increase tonight into Monday
morning as warm front lifts northward. Scattered showers
or light rain will accompany the warm front as it moves into
the area Monday morning. Showers will become more numerous
Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front. SPC day 2 convective
outlook indicated that there is a chance of thunderstorms in
the west, generally west of I77. More changes later tonight.

Previous Discussion:
As of 325 PM EST Sunday...

Increasing clouds tonight. Scattered to numerous showers
Monday.

A stationary front to our south will begin to move north as a
warm front tonight and Monday. This is in response to strong
low pressure system pushing northeast through the nations mid-
section...southwest winds increasing ahead of the system.

Clouds will be on the increase overnight in response to the
increase in isentropic lift associated with the warm front.
Scattered showers or patchy light rain will accompany the warm
front as it moves into the area Monday morning. During the
afternoon, shower activity is expected to become more prolific
in response to convergence ahead an approaching cold front.
This cold front will be inbound from the OH/TN valleys...
showers associated with this feature entering our western
counties mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest
enough elevated CAPE to support a few thunderstorms as well.

Wind profiles ahead of the cold are robust... out of the
southwest at close to 50 kts 3-5kft AGL. Think most of the wind
will initially remain elevated...strongest gusts at the highest
elevations only, and over the top of the warm front inversion.
As deeper convection enters the area from the west later in the
day would anticipated increasing potential for this to mix
down...but will forgo any wind headlines due to the convective
need to get the strongest winds to the surface. Once the surface
front comes through, and winds shift to the northwest, there
will be a greater need for wind headlines Monday night as
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

With respect to temperatures, would expect coolest readings
tonight to occur around midnight. Once clouds thicken after
midnight temperatures should hold steady or even rise a few
degrees toward daybreak. As for Monday, forecast temperatures
will be highly dependent on cloud cover, rain, and proximity of
warm front. Some of the models keep us fairly cool Monday due
to the warm front getting stuck over the area. Others move the
warm front north of the area resulting in a late day surge of
temperature prior to the arrival of the cold front. Going
forecast reflects the cooler side of guidance, so if the warm
front does move north of the region then what is advertised at
the moment will be a bust to the cold side.

QPF Monday will be highly variable due to the showery nature of
of the rain. Expecting a tenth to a quarter inch on the average
with isolated half inch amounts if there are thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

    Dry conditions for most of period then increasing rain chances
with weak disturbance late Wednesday...

Precip chances should be on the decrease Monday night as the near
term system exits stage east. Will need to watch the increased
gradient winds since they might flirt with advisory levels, which
may be warranted in future updates. We then get treated to a dry
Tuesday through much of Wednesday as sfc ridging builds in. Under
main zonal flow aloft we should see a return of unseasonably warm
temps as well with Tuesday highs mainly near 70 in the Piedmont and
low 60s in some of the mountains, then a bit higher for Wednesday in
the mountains. A weak upper wave and elongated sfc front looks to
bring a quick round of rain showers for mainly Wednesday night. QPF
for now may range from near a third of an inch in parts of the north
to near three quarters of an inch to the south.

Forecast confidence high.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Rain chances increase again with stronger low pressure
system late Thursday through Friday...

Translated sfc front and moisture axis should briefly push south of
the area for Thursday during the daytime, but then an amplifying
upper cutoff trough to the west and associated organized sfc low
will approach. This should shift the boundary northward as a warm
front and bring the first return of shower chances for late
Thursday/Thursday night. We stay in the warm sector with continued
shower chances until an occluded front swings sharply across the
region later Friday ahead of a possible 100+ kt 500 mb jet. While
upper and low level shear parameters are high, progged CAPE is near
nil so not anticipating much as far as severe potential for now but
will need to monitor trends for any destabilization potential.
Guidance has some timing and position differences but previous runs
have trended a more northward solution. Forecast thermal profiles
indicate a quick cooling behind the aforementioned front though
any moisture looks to be quite shallow and quickly limited so
we may have a brief transition to typical upslope snow showers
in the western mountains but not anticipating much accumulation
with it unless the upper low cold core and wrap around moisture
has a more southward shift.

Forecast confidence medium.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1223 AM EST Monday...

VFR at all TAF sites this morning except MVFR at BLF. Should see
lower cigs in the mountains between 09-12z as warm frontal lift
pushes in moistening the low levels with a chance of rain.
Leaning toward MVFR or lower at BLF with MVFR BCB/LWB in the
11-14z time range reaching ROA by 15z.

South to southeast winds increase in the mountains later today
ahead as the warm front pushes north. Light rain may cause MVFR
vsbys, but overall looking at most of the day to range from VFR
to MVFR east to MVFR/IFR west.

As the cold front pushes in later today showers will increase
and winds turn southwest then west reaching BLF/LWB in the
00z-06z time frame, possibly BCB/ROA. Gusts over 30kts likely
toward the end of the taf period in the mountains, with MVFR
ceilings, while ceilings are VFR from ROA/BCB east.

Average confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during
the taf period.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Strong gusty west to northwest winds will continue into Tuesday
morning. Lingering sub- VFR in the WV mtns possible Tuesday
otherwise clearing should introduce a short period of VFR for
Tuesday through Wednesday.

Another low pressure system will track across the Mississippi
Valley Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring a chance of
precipitation and MVFR or lower conditions on Wednesday and
Thursday ahead of the cold front. MVFR/IFR showers are likely on
Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...KK/PM/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
909 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-280215-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
909 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-280215-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
909 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Winds could gust over 40 mph at the highest elevations Monday night
into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.