Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
745 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through our area Monday bringing
scattered thunderstorms, some containing heavy rain and damaging
winds. The threat for storms diminishes for the 4th of July, but
very warm and humid conditions will trigger widely scattered
storms Wednesday and Thursday with a better chance for storms
Friday thanks to a cold front moving into our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

Watching a couple areas for potential severe thunderstorms this
evening. Overall the environment continues to support strong to
severe storms for several more hours. First area of focus is a
higher zone of MLCAPE from North Carolina into southern Virginia
and southeast West Virginia. Shear has also increased over the
area this evening with effective shear now in the 40-45kt range.
Strong instability and modest shear should continue to support
the threat of organized convection for at least a few hours
beyond sunset for the North Carolina counties and southern
Virginia. This is where Severe Thunderstorm Watch #437 is in
effect until midnight.

Next area of concern will be for a line of storms currently over
eastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia. These will continue
to progress eastward this evening and could reach portions of
the western CWA by 9PM. Biggest uncertainty with this line of
storms is if it hold its intensity, but with a decent parameter
space ahead of it, thinking it should at least make a run at
portions of far western Virginia before eventually weakening.

Storms should be on a weakening trend by midnight with only
isolated showers and storms overnight. May have a few areas of
fog development, but with cloud cover, likely not widespread fog
tonight.

As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

 Severe storms possible again Monday...

An outflow boundary from decaying convection that entered our
area from the west this morning has triggered a line of
thunderstorms across the VA southside and northern NC piedmont.
With SBCAPES in excess of 2000 j/kg and DCAPES over 1000 j/kg,
would expect these storms to produce damaging winds as the
advance east into a more unstable environment.

After this first round of storms exits, weak low level
convergence in the mountains may trigger isolated showers and
storms this evening before a more organized cluster of storms
forming across the Ohio Valley early this afternoon, enters our
area this evening. As a result, kept higher pops in the
southeast through 21Z, with a slight lowering until 00z before
increasing POPs from 00Z to 06Z.

For Monday, a cold front associated with a passing weakening
upper level wave will move through during the afternoon. As this
front interacts with PWAT values near 2 inches and forecast
MUCAPES of 1500+ j/kg, should spawn a line of thunderstorms,
some severe, mainly east of the Blue Ridge where instability
will be highest.

With compressional warming ahead of the cold front, temperatures
Monday should be warmer than today, as shown by the NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Sunday...

   Coverage of showers and storms will be less as weak high pressure
briefly builds into the area...

A upper level trough and weak surface cold front are still expected
to move east across the eastern portions of the area Monday evening.
This front is expected to continue on its eastward path, with weak
high pressure arriving by Tuesday night.

The result of this series of events will be chances of evening
showers and storms on Monday primarily across eastern sections of
the area, with decreasing coverage through the night. On Tuesday,
July 4, as an average across the region, this day is still looking
to be the least active in terms of shower and storm potential
through the week. While we still are forecasting isolated scattered
showers and storms, they will be primarily driven by daytime
heating, weak orographical convergence, and outflow boundary
interactions, and continue into the evening not much past sunset.

On Wednesday, the story does not change too much. By the late
afternoon, the center of the surface high will be centered across
the far eastern section of the forecast area. This will yield a weak
southeast flow across the Foothills and crest of the Blue Ridge
region. This weak upslope, convergent flow, combined with daytime
heating, should yield greater coverage as compared to Tuesday, but
still primarily in the isolated to scattered coverage range.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average around
five degrees above normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 PM EDT Sunday...

   A cold front will move into the region and stall during this
portion of the forecast...

After a bit of a slow down in the amount of showers and storms
across the region during the middle of the week, the quantity will
be increasing by the latter half of the week, heading into next
weekend. The culprit is expected to be a cold front that moves into
the region on Friday, and then stalls and remain as a focus for
additional convection into the weekend. In addition to the proximity
of the front, a shortwave trough is expected to cross the region on
Sunday, only adding to the list of potential lifting mechanisms.

As little overall change is expected in the synoptic pattern,
looking for a continuation of humid conditions and temperatures
averaging around five degrees above normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

Additional thunderstorms developing over West Virginia are
expected to sweep into our area this evening and early tonight,
so kept VCTS at all TAF sites until 06Z when most of the
convection is expected end. Best chance of any impacts from this
line of storms will be from BLF to LWB.

Another area of storms have developed along the southern Blue
Ridge and these will slowly drift east for the next few hours.
Thinking most storms from this area will miss the TAF terminals,
but still keeping VCTS mentioned.

Early Monday morning, areas of fog are possible in the valleys,
including KLWB and KBCB where visibilities may fall to MVFR to
IFR levels.

Any fog should erode by 13-14Z allowing for VFR conditions to
prevail at all TAF sites tomorrow morning.

Gusty west winds will be possible tomorrow, gusting into the
20kt range.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The opportunity for TSRA continues into Monday afternoon and
evening, especially east of the Blue Ridge.

Widely scattered MVFR thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening from Wednesday through Friday, especially in the
mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...BMG/PH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG/PH

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