Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
729 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will keep us in an unsettled weather pattern
through the weekend. This front exits by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Friday...

Areas of storms are ongoing this evening, mainly in two
locations across the CWA. Stronger, but more isolated storms are
moving north across the Piedmont of Virginia within a weak lee
trough and east of a north to south stationary front. Weaker
storms, but better coverage is across the mountains of West
Virginia.

The general trend is for these storms to weaken over the next
few hours, eventually fading overnight with only some areas of
showers. Fog development still seems likely overnight,
especially in areas that have seen rain this afternoon and
evening.

As of 156 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1)May have some localized flooding issues this afternoon/evening
across WV and far SW VA

2) Severe threat will be isolated this afternoon/evening.

3)Periods of moderate to heavy showers possible again Saturday

Fairly quiet early this afternoon, as we have slow recovery from the
stratus/fog this morning. Boundary lies from central VA into the NC
mountains. An upper trough/low over southern GA into Florida will
shift slowly east while another shortwave works from the lower Ohio
Valley into Kentucky. A piece of upper energy ahead of the main
shortwave will interact with the front to develop showers/storms
across the central Appalachians into the Upper TN Valley this
afternoon, and high resolution models have been showing this with
less coverage east. SBCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg should be enough to
fuel storms, but overall severe threat will be somewhat limited by
the cloud cover, and looking more of potential hydro threat in the
mountains despite faster storm motion as models hint at training
cells along the boundary.

Further east more sunshine will aid in instability but coverage
looks to be isolated/widely scattered into this evening, but severe
threat is higher, though still isolated. Damaging winds would be the
main threat.

Coverage will start to subside overnight but another upper wave and
slow movement of front will keep threat of showers around but more
scattered in coverage. Southeast flow and upper divergence Saturday
morning will start to bring a better chance of showers into the
southern Blue Ridge/foothills during the morning with coverage
expanding northwest through the day. Saturday looks wetter, but with
more clouds, instability will be limited. So heavy rain will be more
of an issue as opposed severe storms. Will have to see how rain
plays out this afternoon/tonight if any watches are needed.

Fog may be an issue again tonight if we clear out enough but overall
think will be limited.

Lows stay muggy in the 60s, with cooler highs Saturday in the 70s,
except for a few lower 80s in the piedmont.

Showers will linger into Sat night as the upper trough stays over
the TN valley. Lows still in the 60s.

Forecast confidence is high on coverage of storms through this
evening and on the sky cover, but moderate on temps Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Little change in the weather pattern is expected through the
period.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue.

- Temperatures trend to near normal.

An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. through the
period. Abundant moisture will continue to be drawn northward
from the Gulf of Mexico with a good southerly fetch through the
period. Several short waves are progged to track through the
upper trough parked over the area. This will result in daily
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Locally heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will be the main concerns
through the period. Cloud cover will hold down temperatures as
well as instability, so the severe threat should be limited.

All-in-all temperatures are expected to be near normal for maxes
and above normal for mins as dewpoints, pwats, and relative
humidity levels remain high for this time of year. Low clouds
and fog will prevail in many areas at night. Convective activity
will be on a diurnal swing, but given the pattern, some showers
will linger overnight and into the morning hours at times.

High temperatures will be mostly in the 70s with a few lower 80s
in the Piedmont where a glimpse or two of sun is possible. Low
temperatures will be mostly in the 50s mountains to the 60s
elsewhere.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Upper trough slowly lifts northeast, but trend is slow at
  best.

- Keeping an eye on Hurricane Lee looming in the Atlantic.

Troughing remains over the eastern U.S. with a slow weakening,
but given another trough developing over the Great Lakes area,
troughing really never leaves the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, major
Hurricane Lee looms in the western Atlantic increasingly close
to the northeastern U.S.

For our region, precipitation chances slowly wane, but likely
never really go away completely. No major changes to
temperatures with the synoptic pattern more or less remaining in
place. 850mb temperatures remain above normal for mid-September,
but clouds and high humidity levels will keep daytime
temperatures in check. Nighttime temperatures will trend a bit
cooler through the period. Look for highs mainly 70s with lows
in the 50s.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...

As we head through this evening, showers should be less in
coverage but will not be completely dry. Another case expected
with lower cigs developing and moist low levels resulting in
sub-VFR ceilings will likely keep fog limited to MVFR/IFR. This
will run roughly from 06z-13z, but confidence is low on to how
low cigs/vsbys drop, but high confidence on sub-VFR.

Keeping it dry for now in the tafs through 18z, but expect
another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Coverage of rain/storms will likely be more
widespread than today. Once any fog/low clouds disperse,
looking at mainly VFR after 15z, but sub-VFR still possible
along the Blue Ridge.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Through Sunday night: Showers/storms will occur off/on with best
chances in the afternoon/evenings, with VFR outside of storms,
but sub-VFR in storms and any late night low clouds/fog.

Monday through Wednesday: We begin a transition to drier
weather with VFR expected, although an isolated afternoon
-SHRA/TSRA will be possible for the mountains terminals.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...BMG/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
242 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

NCZ004>006-VAZ032-043>047-058-059-091845-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Patrick-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
242 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few storms this afternoon and evening could become strong to severe
with damaging wind the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rainfall to the
area for Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-091845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Wythe-Grayson-Carroll-
242 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon will bring heavy rainfall which could
lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rainfall to the
area for Saturday, with localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ011-013-014-017>020-022>024-033>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-091845-
Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
242 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may
be severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, with large hail and
localized flooding possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rainfall to the
area Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

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