Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
931 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the area tonight then east
of the area Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected through early tonight, then drying
out for Sunday. Another disturbance will pass across the
region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Saturday...

Slowed the end time for showers and storm tonight...

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trof just
entering our western forecast area. Data from the 00Z/RNK
sounding just arriving shows lower level southerly winds 15-20
knots which has helped to push PWAT values over 2.0" across much
of the forecast area this evening resulting in highly efficient
rainfall rate. Some personal weather stations in northern
Bedford, southern Smyth and southern Alleghany County, NC
reporting over 3 to 3.5" of rain.

Many of the CAMs keep showers and storms in the area until
06-09Z, so increased POPs, especially east of the Blue Ridge
from 06-09Z, and localized flash flooding remains possible.
DCAPES have fallen to below 500 j/kg, so the threat for
damaging winds appears to be very small.

Otherwise, made little change to the temperature forecast and
once the shortwave passes, areas of low clouds and fog are
likely.

Better mixing from a west- northwest downslope wind should
allow dewpoints to fall into the lower to mid 60s Sunday
afternoon, so not as bad for Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday
will top out near the seasonal norm with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s along/west of the Blue Ridge, to upper 80s/near 90
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM EDT Saturday...

Quieter start to the week.

A cold front will push east to the Atlantic ocean Sunday night.
High pressure in the Ohio Valley will build east into our region.
It will be mostly clear with a light northwest flow Sunday night.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s in the mountains to the
mid 60s in the Piedmont.

A shortwave rotating around the base of the upper trough Monday may
generate showers and thunderstorms Monday into Monday night
especially in our western mountain areas near the WV/VA border.

High temperatures Monday will vary from the mid 70s in the mountains
to the lower 90s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures Monday night will
be mild with readings from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.

Moderate confidences in the Short Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Saturday...

 Storm chances continue for parts of the area each day with
near to slightly above normal temperatures.

An upper ridge will remain parked over the Desert Southwest and the
mean mid/upper trof holds in the East.  An active weather pattern
expected for our region with northwest flow aloft and multiple upper
shortwaves and troughs tracking through the upper flow. Initially,
the better chances for convection look to be in north and west
portions of the forecast area. However, can not rule out some more
organized clusters or MCS crossing further into the area given such
a setup, which guidance frequently struggles to resolve.

The pattern could amplify at the end of the week, which could drive
a cold front southeastward across the area around Friday. If the
timing right, we might be able to get some drier air for the weekend.

Temperatures should remain near to slightly above climo norms.

Forecast confidence in Long Term Period is medium.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 738 PM EDT Saturday...

High confidence that poor flying conditions will persist through
Sunday morning, as widespread showers and thunderstorms will
continue to impact all TAF sites through at least 06Z, with new
model runs showing a slower end time to the precipitation. These
showers and storms will bring temporary sub-VFR vsby/cigs. More
widespread IFR cigs are likely after the precipitation ends
(after 06-08Z) and will be slow to clear, with VFR conditions
likely not returning until after 17-18Z Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Sunday looks less active per latest model solutions so outside
of any isolated storms expected VFR conditions.

Another upper level disturbance is expected to cross the region
late Monday or Monday night associated with the next best chance
for SHRA/TSRA,mainly in the mountains. Otherwise, mainly VFR
conditions are expected through midweek aside from late night
and early morning stratus/fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PH/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-161830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
224 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could become strong to
severe with damaging winds, isolated large hail, and localized
flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

VAZ016-017-032-160030-
Patrick VA-Floyd VA-Carroll VA-
755 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
southwestern Floyd, southeastern Carroll and central Patrick Counties
through 830 PM EDT...

At 755 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gladesboro, or near Fancy Gap, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gladesboro...
Laurel Fork...
Meadows Of Dan...
Mabry Mill...
and Buffalo Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8060 3672 8067 3686 8045 3675 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 233DEG 22KT 3670 8059

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

VAZ023-024-034-160030-
Botetourt VA-Bedford VA-Rockbridge VA-
806 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
southwestern Rockbridge, north central Bedford and east central
Botetourt Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 806 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Natural Bridge to near Peaks Of Otter
Recreation Area. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buena Vista...
Glasgow...
Sedalia...
Arcadia...
Snowden...
and Natural Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 7936 3763 7939 3761 7944 3760 7943
      3761 7941 3760 7940 3748 7942 3745 7966
      3766 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 245DEG 22KT 3765 7960 3748 7963

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
933 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Flood            2 WNW Roaring Gap       36.42N 81.02W
07/15/2023                   Alleghany          NC   Public

            4.5 inches of rain was measured near Camp
            Butler Road, and Haynes Branch was reported
            out of its banks with water near one house.

&&

PJH