Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
931 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the area tonight then east
of the area Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected through early tonight, then drying
out for Sunday. Another disturbance will pass across the
region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Saturday...

Slowed the end time for showers and storm tonight...

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trof just
entering our western forecast area. Data from the 00Z/RNK
sounding just arriving shows lower level southerly winds 15-20
knots which has helped to push PWAT values over 2.0" across much
of the forecast area this evening resulting in highly efficient
rainfall rate. Some personal weather stations in northern
Bedford, southern Smyth and southern Alleghany County, NC
reporting over 3 to 3.5" of rain.

Many of the CAMs keep showers and storms in the area until
06-09Z, so increased POPs, especially east of the Blue Ridge
from 06-09Z, and localized flash flooding remains possible.
DCAPES have fallen to below 500 j/kg, so the threat for
damaging winds appears to be very small.

Otherwise, made little change to the temperature forecast and
once the shortwave passes, areas of low clouds and fog are
likely.

Better mixing from a west- northwest downslope wind should
allow dewpoints to fall into the lower to mid 60s Sunday
afternoon, so not as bad for Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday
will top out near the seasonal norm with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s along/west of the Blue Ridge, to upper 80s/near 90
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM EDT Saturday...

Quieter start to the week.

A cold front will push east to the Atlantic ocean Sunday night.
High pressure in the Ohio Valley will build east into our region.
It will be mostly clear with a light northwest flow Sunday night.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s in the mountains to the
mid 60s in the Piedmont.

A shortwave rotating around the base of the upper trough Monday may
generate showers and thunderstorms Monday into Monday night
especially in our western mountain areas near the WV/VA border.

High temperatures Monday will vary from the mid 70s in the mountains
to the lower 90s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures Monday night will
be mild with readings from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.

Moderate confidences in the Short Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Saturday...

 Storm chances continue for parts of the area each day with
near to slightly above normal temperatures.

An upper ridge will remain parked over the Desert Southwest and the
mean mid/upper trof holds in the East.  An active weather pattern
expected for our region with northwest flow aloft and multiple upper
shortwaves and troughs tracking through the upper flow. Initially,
the better chances for convection look to be in north and west
portions of the forecast area. However, can not rule out some more
organized clusters or MCS crossing further into the area given such
a setup, which guidance frequently struggles to resolve.

The pattern could amplify at the end of the week, which could drive
a cold front southeastward across the area around Friday. If the
timing right, we might be able to get some drier air for the weekend.

Temperatures should remain near to slightly above climo norms.

Forecast confidence in Long Term Period is medium.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 738 PM EDT Saturday...

High confidence that poor flying conditions will persist through
Sunday morning, as widespread showers and thunderstorms will
continue to impact all TAF sites through at least 06Z, with new
model runs showing a slower end time to the precipitation. These
showers and storms will bring temporary sub-VFR vsby/cigs. More
widespread IFR cigs are likely after the precipitation ends
(after 06-08Z) and will be slow to clear, with VFR conditions
likely not returning until after 17-18Z Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Sunday looks less active per latest model solutions so outside
of any isolated storms expected VFR conditions.

Another upper level disturbance is expected to cross the region
late Monday or Monday night associated with the next best chance
for SHRA/TSRA,mainly in the mountains. Otherwise, mainly VFR
conditions are expected through midweek aside from late night
and early morning stratus/fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PH/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PH/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-161830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
224 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could become strong to
severe with damaging winds, isolated large hail, and localized
flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1030 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     Flash Flood      Bocock                  37.37N 79.11W
07/15/2023                   Campbell           VA   911 Call Center

            High water across Eastbrook Road near
            Campbell Ave. Road is impassible.

&&

PJH

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