Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Charleston, WV

213 
WGUS71 KRLX 281711
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
111 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

WVC005-281721-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-230828T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Boone WV-
111 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY...

Although the threat for flash flooding has ended, please continue to 
heed remaining road closures as creeks and streams will be elevated
through the afternoon.

LAT...LON 3786 8177 3787 8178 3789 8176 3791 8176
      3792 8174 3799 8169 3803 8157 3796 8155
      3794 8156 3793 8157 3792 8156 3790 8156
      3789 8155 3789 8156 3788 8156 3786 8162
      3784 8175

$$

30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
611 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad synoptic ascent aloft, an inverted surface trough and
strong moisture gradient yields unsettled weather through
Tuesday night. High pressure brings dry weather thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Monday...

Increased PoPs to numerous this morning where elevated showers are
filling in between Logan and Sutton. Otherwise forecast was on
track.

As of 120 AM Monday...

Patchy fog is possible this morning where any breaks in the
clouds can occur, any fog burns off through 9 AM.

The dominant features affecting sensible weather through the near
term:

* A tropical moisture plume characterized by precipitable water
  values near 2 inches along the Atlantic Coastal Plain,
  decreasing to around 1.75 inches across our southeast and with
  with much lesser values, generally less than 1 inch across
  the Ohio Valley. This sets up a decent column moisture
  gradient that wiggles around some, but roughly bisects our
  forecast area from southwest to northeast.

* Background synoptic ascent associated with a rather
  persistent right entrance region of a ~100KT H250 jet streak
  extending into the northeast.

* Low level ascent associated with an inverted surface trough
  in the vicinity of the aforementioned moisture gradient.

The main concern through the period will be locally heavy downpours
with any activity in the very moist, tropical influenced column with
minimal steering flow. Deep warm cloud depths with wet bulb zeros in
excess of 14kft feet and skinny CAPE profiles yield at least a
marginal concern for localized high water issues beneath any heavier
downpours. The main areas for concern will be those closest to the
tropical plume - our southeastern tier of counties and along the
inverted trough axis that is expected to extend roughly along I-79
where moisture convergence may yield more precipitation coverage.

Despite the fringe of the jet overhead, 0-6KM flow is generally at
or below 20KTs with winds increasing only above H500. Given this,
severe weather is unlikely outside of storm scale interaction.

While activity should be diurnally enhanced with heating, the
aforementioned synoptic ascent aloft will keep precipitation
chances going into the overnight tonight, although thunder
chances should wane. Cloud cover should help limit overnight fog
formation, but at least patchy fog will be possible with any
breaks in the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Monday...

The soggy setup over the mountains to start the work week in
the near term, continues Tuesday into Tuesday night, albeit
with subtle changes.

The forecast area in general remains in the persistent right
entrance region of the upper level northern stream jet, until
Tuesday night, with the northern stream mid-upper level flat
wave associated with the jet max moves on off to the northeast.
Mid-level flow increases slightly, slightly increasing cell
motion, while wetbulb zero heights decrease to about 12 kft, all
of this decreases the heavy rain potential slightly while
increasing the threat for strong afternoon thunderstorms
slightly. Overall, the heavy rain threat remains greater than
the severe thunderstorm threat amid narrow CAPE.

After lowering early Tuesday morning, PW values increase to from
around 1.25 inches over the northern mountains to close to two
inches over the southern mountains, as another southern stream
mid-upper level short wave arrives. These values then flatten
out to around 1.5 inches Tuesday night, as the short wave
cruises on by and the low level inverted trough breaks down.

These factors couple with the diurnal heating and cooling cycle
to increase rainfall coverage in and near the mountains
Tuesday, with the chance even extending back into the middle
Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon, and then decrease coverage west
to east Tuesday night. Explicit forecast precipitation amounts
Tuesday through Tuesday night are in the one to two inch range
in the mountains, quickly dropping to a half inch or less just
west of the mountains, to nil along and west of the Ohio River.

Several individual models hit Pocahontas County hard with 3 to 5
inches even though upslope on light southerly flow there is
weak. A few models also spill one to two inch amounts back a
bit west of the mountains.

A much stronger northern stream short wave trough and stout
surface cold front push through on Wednesday, quickly breaking
down the soggy pattern first thing in the morning, as increased
mid level flow brings in much drier air from the west. The
chance for showers cuts off before dawn Wednesday morning, and
then morning fog and stratus give way to afternoon sunshine.
Wednesday night will be dry as high pressure builds toward the
area from the northwest, but stratus may form overnight beneath
the post-frontal inversion.

The strong northern stream trough will also ensure that Idalia
passes to the southeast of the area Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

Central guidance reflects below normal temperatures and small
temperature ranges amid cloud and, on Wednesday, cold
advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM Monday...

The latter portion of the work week, and the long Labor Day
weekend, bring a welcome period of dry weather, as high pressure
builds at the surface, and then the mid and upper levels.
Thursday morning may start with fog and stratus beneath the
post-frontal inversion, and then subsequent mornings start with
valley fog.

Central guidance reflects below normal temperatures as surface
high pressure builds to end the work week, returning to at least
normal with increased diurnal ranges during the Labor Day
weekend, as mid- upper level high pressure builds.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM Monday...

Any fog in the better protected valleys this morning lifts and
dissipates through 14Z.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today,
mainly affecting terminals east of I-77, but couldn't rule out a
brief shower at HTS/PKB as well. Showers and storms will be quite
slow moving and be capable of producing locally heavy rain that may
reduce the visibility to 1-3SM at times. Precipitation intensity
will decrease but not end with loss of heating this afternoon as
background synoptic ascent remains atop a moist column. Ceilings
during the day will generally fall into the 020-050 range with some
local IFR ceilings possible with and behind any heavier
precipitation cores.

Some patchy fog will be possible in the valleys tonight, aided by
precipitation that falls during the day, but limited by significant
cloud cover.

Winds light and generally northerly, except gusty and erratic near
any thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Precipitation coverage through the day may
be hit and miss around the terminals.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in valley fog most mornings this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
441 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

VAZ003-004-WVZ013-015-016-018-024>034-039-040-515>526-290845-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Lincoln-Kanawha-Roane-Calhoun-Mingo-Logan-Boone-
Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-
Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
441 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central, northeast, northern, southeast and southern
West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slow moving showers and storms producing locally heavy rain may yield
isolated high water issues today into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Slow moving showers and storms producing locally heavy rain may yield
isolated high water issues Tuesday into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-014-017-019-020-
290845-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Wirt-Ritchie-Doddridge-
441 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central, northern, southern and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
900 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     Flash Flood      Clendenin               38.49N 81.35W
08/28/2023                   Kanawha            WV   911 Call Center

            High water was observed along Maywood Avenue
            East near the Clendenin Volunteer Fire
            Department.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
911 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     Flash Flood      2 SE Chesapeake         38.21N 81.51W
08/28/2023                   Kanawha            WV   Public

            High water spilled into the Riverside High
            School parking lot.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
924 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Flash Flood      4 SSW Glasgow           38.16N 81.45W
08/28/2023                   Kanawha            WV   911 Call Center

            Cabin Creek Road in the Sharon area is shut
            down at the WV Turnpike entrance and exit
            ramps due to high water.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
929 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Cedar Grove       38.22N 81.44W
08/28/2023                   Kanawha            WV   911 Call Center

            Water rescue conducted at William Street,
            stemming off of East Dupont Avenue.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
946 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 AM     Flash Flood      1 SE Chesapeake         38.21N 81.53W
08/28/2023                   Kanawha            WV   911 Call Center

            Both lanes of WV61 are closed in Winifrede
            due to high water.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     Flash Flood      4 SSW Glasgow           38.16N 81.45W
08/28/2023                   Kanawha            WV   911 Call Center

            High water observed along Stockholm Street
            in Sharon. Water rescue currently underway.

&&