Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Charleston, WV

860 
WGUS51 KRLX 280144
FFWRLX
WVC047-280400-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230828T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
944 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern McDowell County in southern West Virginia...

* Until midnight EDT tonight.

* At 944 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the 
  warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. 
  Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
  warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Gary, War, Anawalt, Elbert, Cucumber, Jenkinjones and Maybeury.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Left Fork Sandlick Creek, Little Slate Creek, Cucumber Creek, Long 
  Branch, Tug Fork River, Kewee Creek, Horsepen Creek, South Fork 
  Tug Fork River, Middle Fork Big Creek, Elkhorn Creek, Johns 
  Branch, Laurel Branch, Beech Fork, Big Creek, Millseat Branch, Tug 
  Fork, Barrenshe Creek, North Fork Elkhorn Creek, Dry Fork, 
  Sandlick Creek, Little Horsepen Creek, South Fork Tug Fork, 
  Straight Fork and Jacobs Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll 
free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 8143 3736 8135 3732 8137 3732 8139
      3727 8143 3727 8145 3725 8148 3726 8150
      3723 8151 3722 8155 3720 8168 3729 8176

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KH

071 
WGUS71 KRLX 280357
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1157 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

WVC047-280407-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230828T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell WV-
1157 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...

The heaviest rain was over. No flooding was reported, and flash 
flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed any remaining road closures.

Small streams in the area may still be rising, and the Dry Fork may 
rise through Bradshaw overnight, but should not cause any issues.

LAT...LON 3741 8143 3736 8135 3732 8137 3732 8139
      3727 8143 3727 8145 3725 8148 3726 8150
      3723 8151 3722 8155 3720 8168 3729 8176

$$

TRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
819 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings drier weather across the middle Ohio Valley
to start the new week, with better rain chances near the
mountains through mid-week, amid near seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

A mid-level trough will remain present over the northeastern
quadrant of the US today and Monday. For this afternoon, low-
level moisture transported into the area may support scattered
showers and perhaps a few storms - primarily along and near the
mountains. Additional precipitation is slowly edging towards the
CWA from the south as a shortwave approaches. Showers and
storms are expected to enter the area later today, then activity
will continue on Monday as the wave crosses. During this time, the
best chances for both showers and storms should exist across
southern and eastern portions of the area, while a building
area of high pressure brings drier conditions to the northwest.

Low temperatures are projected to be in the upper 50s to 60s
tonight. Monday will be near seasonable, with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to mid 70s along
the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Monday night will have some chances of showers along the mountains
which will diminish by the overnight into early morning hours. Then
the area will stay dry under high pressure until a disturbance from
the south nudges into our CWA.  This feature will promote chances
for showers and storms for about the rest of this period. Although
most activity will be kept confined to and along the mountains and a
lot of the showers that try and make it west should fizzle out from
downsloping. Some showers may have the potential to sneak into the
western portions of the area during Tuesday afternoon, so left in
mention of showers/storms.

Looking at soundings, no severe threat exists and with little CAPE
and shear forecast to be present, should prevent any storms
from becoming strong. PWATS are a little on the high side,
therefore isolated chances of water issues could be a
possibility if training occurs. By Wednesday morning any chances
for precipitation will end as things push off to the east and
high pressure builds in from the north promoting dry and below
seasonable weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

Lingering showers Wednesday morning will trail off in the
afternoon amid cooler temperatures. Increased clouds will become
noticeable towards the end of the day Wednesday as a tropical
system looms to the south.

Global model consensus is still on board with what is now
Tropical Storm Idalia riding northeastward into Carolinas
beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday. The forecast area
will be shielded by the mountains and deep troughing to the
west from the brunt of tropical moisture, but showers could
sneak as far west as the Charleston metro area Thursday night as
the system tracks up the eastern seaboard. Convective activity
will be limited in what will be the remnants of Idalia, so
expecting more of a showery event to round out the work week.

Strong upper level ridging builds into the heart of the country
on Friday and into the Labor Day holiday weekend. This feature
advertises the possibility of dry weather and slightly warmer
than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions persist this evening across much of the area
under mainly dry conditions, with just some isolated showers
across the far southern higher terrain. Isolated showers should
gradually drift northwards through the night, potentially
resulting in some brief MVFR VSBY restrictions. Additionally,
low stratus and patchy valley fog development will once again
result in some MVFR/IFR restrictions overnight, mainly across
locations southeast of the Ohio River. Northwest terminals
(HTS/PKB) are progged to remain VFR throughout this TAF period,
while central terminals (CKB/CRW) slowly return to VFR by Monday
afternoon. Areas in/near the mountains (BKW/EKN) will linger in
MVFR CIG restrictions through much, if not all of the day
tomorrow. Rain showers are possible on Monday across
central/southern locations, potentially resulting in brief MVFR
VSBY restrictions at times.

Surface flow should remain around 10kts or less, with a north
to northeast direction throughout the TAF period across the
lowlands. Northeast flow begins to shift along and near the
mountains tonight, eventually becoming ESE for Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Periodic VSBY restrictions are possible in
showers/storms through the TAF period (mainly in/near the higher
terrain). Extent and intensity of restrictions associated with
fog and low clouds tonight into Monday morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 08/28/23
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in valley fog most mornings this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JP/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...GW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
455 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

WVZ516-518-520-522>524-526-282100-
Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Southeast Nicholas-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Southeast Randolph-
455 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Localized heavy rain is possible this evening and tonight. An
isolated water issue or two cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Localized heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday, potentially
resulting in isolated water issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033-034-515-517-519-521-525-282100-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Northwest Randolph-
455 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast, southeast and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Localized heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday, potentially
resulting in isolated water issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-
039-040-282100-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-
Upshur-Barbour-
455 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central, northern, southern and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.