Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
230 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Key Messages:

1) Severe storms will continue this afternoon into the evening.

2) Dryer and cooler tomorrow, with storms mainly relegated to the
mtns/plains interface.

3) Fire weather concerns for the San Luis Valley (SLV).

Currently...severe storms ongoing across N el paso county. Storms
have been tornadic

Rest of this afternoon into tonight...

Severe storms will continue to move southeast across plains during
the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Multiple rounds
are possible. As boundary pushes south, hodographs become quite
favorable for low level rotation per fcst soundings.

Tomorrow...

Main concern tomorrow will be continuation of Red Flag conditions
for the San Luis valley as winds will gusts to 30 to 35 mph from the
southwest and humidity values will be in the single digits during
the afternoon time period.

As for precip, best chance of storms during the day will be along
the mtns/plains interface. The interior will likely be too dry for
any storms and farther east may be to stable as cooler air will be
moving into the plains. Depending on how much moisture pushes into
the mtns/plains interface will be the deciding factor on how strong
the storms will be. For now SPC does not have this area outlooked,
but I would not be too surprised to see a strong storm or two over
this region during the afternoon time period.

temps tomorrow will be noticeably cooler over the plains, as max
temps will only be in the 70s to mid 80s. The SLV will see the
warmest conditions with highs in the 85-90F range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Going to be a quick long term discussion this afternoon due to the
active weather. Overall, models in good agreement through much of
the extended period, with broad westerly flow giving way to upper
ridging for mid to late week.

Sunday night through Tuesday...broad westerly flow will continue
across the region with embedded energy working its way across
northern Colorado. This will likely lead to periods of showers and
thunderstorms the area. A boundary will have moist southeasterly
low level flow banked along the Eastern Mountains Sunday evening,
with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. This activity will spread
east across the Plains Sunday night, clearing the area by Monday
morning. Given the instability and shear, a few storms may become
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. By
Monday and Tuesday, the main energy feed across Colorado will be
north. That will likely limit shower and thunderstorm activity.
Areas from the Palmer Divide, southeast across the Plains for
areas north of Highway 50 will see continued thunderstorm chances.
South of Highway 50, coverage will be minimal, with possible
isolated activity moving off the southern Sangre de Cristo Range
into the Raton Mesa region. Any storms that do move over these
areas may produce hail and gusty winds.

For areas west of I-25, elevated fire weather conditions are
expected. Low humidity values and gusty winds will spread across
the San Juan Range, down across the San Luis Valley and into the
Eastern Mountains. By Tuesday, these conditions will likely spread
into the southern I-25 corridor.

Wednesday through Saturday...upper high pressure will rebuild
across Colorado for late in the week. Monsoonal moisture will
slowly work back northward with increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms by Saturday. Before Saturday, more isolated activity
over the Mountains is forecast. Temperatures will also be on the
rise with mid to upper 90s across the Plains.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Strong to severe storms will be possible at KCOS and KPUB through
early to mid evening. There will be the potential for low cigs in
the mvfr range later tonight, depending on how much moisture pushes
back on towards the mtns. Tomorrow should be VFR

For KALS, VFR next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ224.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-061715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1101 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe Thunderstorms are near certain this afternoon and evening
across a good part of the region. The greatest threat area will be
east of a line from Lake George, to Rye, to Trinidad, and then
east to the Kansas border. DESTRUCTIVE hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes are expected.

A couple of rounds of severe storms are expected to occur over the
region. The first round is expected to develop over the Pikes
Peak region during the 1 pm to 3 pm time period, and move
generally east. Later this afternoon, scattered to numerous
severe storms will develop over all of the plains, and then move
southeast. Very destructive hail, with hailstones 2 to 3 inches in
diameter, will be possible. Damaging winds greater than 75 mph
will be possible. Isolated tornadoes will be a threat. The severe
storms may last well into the evening hours across the far
southeast plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the higher terrain
and eastern plains both Sunday and Monday afternoon and evening.
The main threats are expected to be hail up to one half inch in
diameter, wind gusts to 50 mph and lightning.

Critical fire weather conditions will persist across the higher
terrain through Monday, with the greatest areas of concern being
the San Luis Valley and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. As the
drying trend persists and pushes east, fire weather highlights may
need to be expanded east into the I25 Corridor starting Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be IMMINENT this afternoon and this evening.

Hodanish

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
435 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     Hail             5 E Security            38.74N 104.65W
08/05/2023  E1.25 inch       El Paso            CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
438 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     Hail             11 SSE Schriever AFB    38.65N 104.46W
08/05/2023  E1.00 inch       El Paso            CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
441 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Hail             1 NNE Security          38.76N 104.73W
08/05/2023  M1.25 inch       El Paso            CO   Trained Spotter

            relayed via social media.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
445 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

COZ089-093-095-052330-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
445 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Otero,
southwestern Kiowa and northeastern Crowley Counties through 530 PM
MDT...

At 444 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Wild Horse Point, or 37 miles north of La Junta,
moving southeast at 30 mph. This storm is in a favorable environment
to become severe.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Arlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3838 10325 3819 10350 3852 10377 3852 10351
      3853 10350 3852 10345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 316DEG 26KT 3851 10365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish