Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
246 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Key messages:

1) Severe thunderstorms possible this evening and overnight
across the plains.

2) Drier conditions with only isolated storms at most expected for
Sunday.

Moist and unstable air mass remains in place along and east of the
mountains this afternoon, with surface CAPE running in the 1-2k J/KG
range at most locations along and east of I-25. 0-6km shear
continues to be impressive as well, with values in the 50-60 kt
range over the plains. While early morning cloud cover has kept some
modest CINH in place and delayed the onset of convection slightly,
radar as of 2 pm was beginning to light up with convection, mainly
near the Palmer Divide and north of the Raton Mesa, where updrafts
have been given a topographically enhanced boost. Last few runs of
the HRRR seem to have a decent handle on convection, as main area of
storms east of Denver is expected to dive southward into sern CO
late this afternoon/this evening, supported by weak short wave
energy dropping southward through CO. Ahead of these storms, both
HRRR and NAMnest have trended toward development of some strong
discrete cells along the srn I-25 corridor, pushing them eastward
across the plains 22z-02z, before main area of convection/organizing
MCS drops south 02z-06z. Shear/buoyancy parameters suggest once deep
convection develops, supercells with large hail/strong winds are
likely, especially just east of the I-25 corridor. Activity will
persist past sunset on the plains, before most convection exits the
area after midnight. Over the mountains and interior valleys, any
convection late this afternoon and evening will be weak/brief, as
mid-level dry air continues to spread across the area.

On Sunday, moisture lingers across the plains, while mountains and
valleys stay dry and breezy. With mid-levels warming and surface
cold pool in place across the plains behind departing MCS, it
appears at this point we'll have minimal convection across the area,
though will maintain some low pops in the Pikes Peak region where
various models have hinted at some brief pop-up showers/t-storms
late in the day. Max temps will remain warmer than average over the
mountains and valleys, while southeast plains stay relatively cool,
especially near the KS border where pool of rain cooled air
may keep readings in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Key Messages:

1) Dry and hot through about midweek. Isolated thunderstorms
possible.

2) More unsettled later this week.

Sunday Night-Tuesday...

An upper-level ridge will start to build in across the region as we
move into the work week, giving us increased temperatures and
relatively dry conditions, with some minor variations each day. For
Monday, temperatures will be well above normal for most of our area,
with the valleys and higher terrain sitting in the high-80s and the
plains largely in the 90s. Low level moisture will be somewhat
lacking everywhere along and west of the I-25 corridor, but
dewpoints do increase quickly heading out closer to the CO-KS border.
With some breezy south winds out east, a weak dryline is expected to
set up over our eastern plains Monday afternoon. With the moisture
axis coupled with a small disturbance moving through overhead,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, likely forming
along this axis before moving east into Kansas. The coverage and
severity of the potential storms will largely depend on where/how
that moisture boundary sets up, so we will see.

Tuesday-Wednesday look hot and mostly dry, with temperatures
increasing across the CWA. Current forecast does have highs close to
100 across parts of the eastern plains both days, and the valleys
will be in the 90s. Will have to be on the lookout for any heat-
related impacts and the need for potential highlights moving forward.

Thursday Onwards...

The ridge will continue to flatten out later this week, with a new
upper wave and an associated cold front currently slated to move
through sometime on Thursday. This will bring an uptick of
thunderstorm coverage late Thursday afternoon into evening, leading
to cooler and wetter conditions on Friday and into next weekend.
Models are still in disagreement on the timing, do more details will
have to be resolved closer to date.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

At KCOS and KPUB, greatest risk of a tsra at both sites will be in
the 22z-02z time period, before bulk of convective activity pushes
east 02z-05z. MVFR to brief IFR stratus then returns after 05z-06z,
persisting until mid-morning on Sunday. Once clouds clear, expect
VFR Sunday afternoon, with lower chances of tsra than the past few
days, though some isolated storms will be possible over the higher
terrain north and west of KCOS.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs with southwest to west winds gusting to
30 until 01-02z, then light winds expected overnight. Not quite as
windy on Sunday, though still some sw winds gusting 20-25 kts after
18z-19z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1121 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-091730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1121 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across
the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. The main risk with
thunderstorms will be hail up to around 2 inches in diameter, wind
gusts up to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado.  Localized flash
flooding will be possible under the more intense thunderstorms. The
greatest risk for severe thunderstorms will be along and east of
I- 25 between 3 PM and 10 PM, however, isolated severe
thunderstorms with the potential to produce large hail may
linger across the far southeastern plains through 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe storms will remain possible across the plains
Sunday and Monday, especially near the Kansas border. The primary
hazards with any storm that develops will be large hail and
severe winds, though a tornado can not be ruled out.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected over the Continental
Divide Region, San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas River Valley, with
gusty southwest winds and low daytime humidities expected.

Temperatures will increase this week to above average values, and
could lead to a higher heat risk and heat related issues,
particularly across the San Luis Valley region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
610 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

COZ093-094-097-099-090045-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
610 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Otero,
northwestern Baca, eastern Las Animas and southwestern Bent Counties
through 645 PM MDT...

At 609 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Higbee, or 21 miles southeast of North La Junta,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Otero,
northwestern Baca, eastern Las Animas and southwestern Bent Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 10339 3776 10343 3786 10313 3761 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 257DEG 23KT 3770 10336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Moore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
629 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

COZ081-085-090100-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
629 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern El Paso
County through 700 PM MDT...

At 629 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southwestern Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stratmoor and Fort Carson around 635 PM MDT.
  Security around 640 PM MDT.
  Security-Widefield around 645 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Fountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 10490 3884 10481 3875 10451 3858 10475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 307DEG 17KT 3879 10480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
709 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Hail             1 NNW Rocky Ford        38.06N 103.73W
07/08/2023  M1.00 inch       Otero              CO   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
716 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Hail             5 N Swink               38.08N 103.62W
07/08/2023  M1.50 inch       Otero              CO   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
719 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

COZ097-090145-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
719 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Bent
County through 745 PM MDT...

At 719 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Las Animas, or 14 miles east of North La Junta, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Las Animas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 10325 3791 10337 3808 10321 3791 10299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 231DEG 5KT 3790 10328

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
721 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

COZ089-093-095-097-090200-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Crowley County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
721 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Otero,
southwestern Kiowa, northeastern Crowley and northwestern Bent
Counties through 800 PM MDT...

At 721 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Forder, or 43 miles northwest of La Junta, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Otero,
southwestern Kiowa, northeastern Crowley and northwestern Bent
Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 10328 3813 10349 3852 10403 3852 10362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 300DEG 21KT 3855 10388

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish