Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1008 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Concern is increasing for some large hail along the I-25 corridor.

Per SPC HREF guidance and hi res soundings, Left splitting
supercells will be favored this afternoon across the fcst area. As
of 10 AM this morning, a mesolow was over the Walsenburg area.
flow over the region is a bit stronger than past days as the
trough to our west moves towards the region. I anticipated
convection will develop after 2 pm this vicinity per HREF member
guidance with storms moving NNE up along the I-25 corridor. With
hodo's favoring left turning storms, large hail may threaten the
I-25 corridor cities N of Walsenburg. Hodanish

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023
Key Message:

1) Strong to severe storms possible across southeast Colorado
   this afternoon and evening.

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest
west to southwest flow aloft across the region with flat upper
ridging in place across the Southern Rockies into the Southern High
Plains, as a broad upper trough continues to dig across West Coast
and into the Great Basin. Water vapor imagery is also indicating
short wave energy rounding the base of the trough across the
southern Great Basin, with increasing south to southwest flow noted
across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners at this time. Regional
radars indicating a MCS rolling across east central New Mexico with
a few showers continuing across eastern Las Animas and southern Baca
Counties, along with mid level waa spreading clouds and a few
sprinkles across the San Luis Valley and Southeast Mts at this time.

For today and tonight, models continue to indicate increasing
southwest flow aloft across the Central Rockies, as the Southern
Great Basin short wave continues into Southwest Colorado this
afternoon, which continues to lift out across Northern Colorado
tonight. Deepening lee trough across the plains keeps low level
moisture in place with south to southeast low level winds leading to
CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg in place across the plains through the
afternoon. Latest higher res models continue to indicate increased
uvv associated with the passing wave, along with steep lapse rates
and strong solar insolation, to develop isolated to scattered
showers and storms over and near the higher terrain through the late
morning and afternoon, with storms continuing across the Eastern Mts
and I-25 Corridor through the late afternoon and then out across the
southeast plains through the evening. There will be potential for
storms to strengthen as the move east into the more unstable
atmosphere across the I-25 Corridor and southeast plains, with
latest CAMs indicating the best shear and potential for severe
storms producing hail up to the size of quarters and strong outflow
winds up to 60 mph along and north of the Highway 50 Corridor. PWATs
remain progged from around 100 to 150 percent of normal keeping the
threat of locally heavy rainfall, however, storms will be moving
which will help limit the flash flooding threat. Further west,
drying within the southwest flow will limit storm coverage and
strength. Have keep highs today similar to the past few days, mainly
in the 70s across the lower elevations and in the 50s and 60s across
the higher terrain.

Convection looks to wind down through the late evening, with the
potential for a few storms across the far southeast plains once
again into early Saturday morning. Skies partially clear through the
overnight hours, with stratus once again possible across the plains
early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Key messages:

1) Daily chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
for all areas, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
across the eastern plains.

Saturday and Sunday...Upper trough of low pressure over the West
will migrate to the north-northeast across the Great Basin and
Intermountain West, rotating pieces of energy across Colorado both
days. This upper level dynamic support will tap into abundant llvl
moisture to spark stronger storms closer to the eastern border
during the late afternoon through evening hours on both Sat and Sun.
Convection is expected to fire along the higher terrain as normal by
midday, but the stronger storms will be further east where the
deeper fuel resides. Model CAPE indicates 1700-2000 j/kg for Sat
roughly east of a line from Crowley County to Eastern Las Animas
County. On Sunday the CAPE will be right around 2000 j/kg right
along the KS/CO border. Bulk shear both days is not very
impressive...30-35 kts max. Finally, periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible with any convection, and could present
flash flooding concerns across area burn scars. As for high
temps, plan on afternoon readings both days in the 70s across the
high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Monday through Thursday...Very familiar pattern then redevelops over
the West Coast for the next work week, with an upper low over CA and
southern NV keeping southwest flow aloft across the Four Corners.
Meanwhile, deep moisture out of the Gulf will continue to stream
north across the Panhandles and into eastern CO, though the extent
of how far west the moisture will seep in remains a question.
Temperatures are forecast to remain right at seasonal normals, with
a daily shot of convection. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

KCOS and KPUB...

Strong to severe storms will be possible at KCOS and KPUB from
about 20-23 UTC today. Main concern is hail. Additionally, low
cigs will be possible towards sunrise lasting into about 15 UTC
tomorrow. There is also a non-zero chance of some late night
thunder at the two taf sites. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
diurnal wind flow.

KALS...

expect VFR conditions during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-271700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1100 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorm are expected this afternoon, especially
along the I-25 corridor region, from Walsenburg northward to the
Palmer Divide. The primary severe weather threat will be large
hail up to the size of golfballs. The greatest threat of severe
weather over the I-25 corridor region will be from 2 pm to 6 pm
this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop around the Walsenburg area
around 2 pm this afternoon and move quickly north-northeast along
the I-25 corridor. Additional storms will also develop along the
Wet Mountains and move north-northeast. Thunderstorms will have
the potential to affect all of the major population centers along
the greater I-25 corridor region, including Pueblo, Canon City and
all of the Colorado Springs metropolitan areas.

Later this afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms will
develop across the remainder of the plains, and these storms will
be capable of hail up to one inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60
mph.

Several late night thunderstorms may be possible over the plains
tonight as another disturbance pushes out over the plains during
the early morning hours. These storms are not expected to be
severe.

Thunderstorm activity over the interior mountains will be less
today due to drier air moving into the Continental Divide region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast
Colorado on Saturday, with the main risks from storms being strong
outflow winds and large hail. In addition, the threat of heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding will continue on Saturday.

Available moisture slowly decreases from west to east across the
region through the Memorial Day Holiday weekend. This will keep
daily chances of higher based isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening showers and storms over and near the higher terrain. These
storms will produce more wind than rain, with the continued
threat of cloud to ground lightning. Further east across the far
southeast Plains and especially along the eastern border, low
level moisture will increase the threat of a few stronger storms
producing hail and locally heavy rainfall.

As temperatures warm through the Holiday weekend, high and fast
flows can be expected across area rivers and streams due to
melting snowpack, especially across the eastern San Juan mountains
and into the San Luis Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1210 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

COZ060-064>066-261845-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft CO-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft CO-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft CO-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
1210 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Chaffee and north central Saguache Counties through 1245 PM MDT...

At 1209 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Bonanza, or 13 miles southwest of Poncha Pass, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bonanza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 10624 3832 10608 3823 10628 3829 10635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 220DEG 11KT 3829 10628

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1213 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

COZ078-079-083-261845-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
1213 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Fremont
and northeastern Custer Counties through 1245 PM MDT...

At 1213 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Junkins Burn Scar, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Fremont and northeastern Custer Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 10522 3822 10529 3839 10517 3829 10501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 219DEG 14KT 3824 10521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PS