Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Pueblo, CO

139 
WGUS75 KPUB 260305
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
905 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

COC043-260500-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-230526T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fremont CO-
905 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY...

At 905 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Howard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 10576 3844 10573 3843 10572 3841 10572
      3839 10580 3837 10584 3841 10585 3845 10583

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Ehr

609 
WGUS75 KPUB 260349
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
949 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

COC043-260359-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-230526T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fremont CO-
949 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL FREMONT 
COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3846 10576 3844 10573 3843 10572 3841 10572
      3839 10580 3837 10584 3841 10585 3845 10583

$$

Ehr

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

Key Messages:

1) Scattered storms this evening, a few severe storms possible
across the plains.

2) Another day with severe thunderstorms possible for the southeast
plains on Friday.

Currently, another day of weak shear (0-6km 20-30 kts) but strong
instability (CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG) across the area, with
convection firing over the eastern mountains and along a weak
surface boundary (stretching from near TAD to just south of LHX) as
of mid-afternoon. Most CAMs move storms eastward from the higher
terrain across the plains this evening, though perhaps in a less
organized fashion as last night, as dynamic lift today is less
pronounced. Still a low end severe threat for most of the plains
into the evening, with HRRR suggesting some storms along the Palmer
Divide after sunset until close to midnight. Convection farther west
over the mountains and interior valleys has been weaker/more
isolated in nature, and expect most storms here to diminish this
evening. Will maintain high end sct pops for locations east of the
mountains until late evening, then taper precip chances off from
west to east toward midnight.

On Friday, upper level swly flow continues across CO, with perhaps a
subtle increase in mid/upper level winds by late day as jet streak
noses into the swrn part of the state. Over the eastern mountains
and plains, moist/unstable air mass will remain in place, leading to
another round of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, though orientation
of the upper jet suggests best dynamic forcing may shift north of
the Palmer Divide by evening. Again, 0-6km shear looks fairly weak,
in the 25-35 kt range, while instability by afternoon climbs into
the 1000-2000 J/KG range. Marginal risk of severe storms looks
warranted, though strongest storms may end up north of the Palmer if
lastest iteration of the NAM is correct. Farther west over the
mountains and interior valleys, air mass looks slightly drier,
leading to a downturn in convective strength and coverage, though
still at least isolated activity expected. Max temps will remain
little changed from the past couple days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

Key Messages:

1) Heightened chances for daily afternoon rain showers and
thunderstorms for southern Colorado into next week.

2) Near to above average temperatures expected for much of southern
Colorado into next week.

Saturday - Thursday... The weekend and into much of next week
will maintain a rather consistent, but active, weather pattern.
Both deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in strong
agreement about developing an overall, but messy, ridge pattern
across the central US, with broad and disorganized troughing to
the west. Colorado will be situated generally on the western
periphery of the ridging and eastern periphery of the troughing.
This pattern will allow for numerous weak short waves and ripples
in the flow to pass over the southern Colorado region. In addition
to that, given the broader troughing to the west, deeper moisture
is expected to stay further into Colorado, though exact moisture
quality will depend highly on how the waves and ripples in the
flow ultimately evolve. Given all of this, daily chances of
afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the
southern Colorado area each day to some extent. Also, with the
moisture, and therefore instability, expected, along with modest
upticks in shear from the waves and ripples, some stronger storms
are possible across the area, but particularly across the eastern
plains, where moisture will be greatest. As for temperatures, a
more steady state of temperatures is anticipated given the ridging
and no major storm systems/cold fronts. This pattern is expected
to keep much of southern Colorado near to slightly above average
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

VFR conditions at all terminals the next 24 hrs, though there will
be sct tsra across the area this evening, with storms most numerous
across the southeast plains. Will carry a vcsh at all terminals
until 01z-02z, and may upgrade to a vcts mention at KPUB 22z-02z,
and KCOS 22z-04z, as storms move off the mountains. Most activity
will diminish/shift east toward KS after 03-05z, though HRRR holds
onto some storms until 05z-07z over the higher terrain north of
KCOS. Very little change in the pattern for Friday, with a risk of
afternoon convection again at all terminals after 20z, and the
potential for severe storms around KCOS and KPUB 21z-00z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-261745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1136 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains early this
afternoon, then spread eastward into the adjacent plains late
this afternoon and evening. A few storms could become severe
across the southeast plains where hail up to around 1.5 inches in
diameter, wind gusts to around 60 mph, heavy rainfall and
dangerous cloud to ground lightning will be possible. Although the
risk looks low, a brief weak tornado can not be ruled out,
especially for the Palmer Divide and northern slopes of the Raton
Ridge. Heavy rainfall could cause localized flash flooding,
especially for areas with susceptible soil conditions.

Across the mountains today, the main risk with thunderstorms will be
brief heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds up to 50 mph, and
lightning.

Thunderstorms will decrease from west to east this evening with a
few thunderstorms lingering overnight near the Kansas border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast
Colorado on Friday, with the main risks from storms being strong
outflow winds and large hail. In addition, the threat of heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding will continue on Friday.

Available moisture slowly decreases from west to east across the
region through the Memorial Day Holiday weekend. This will keep
daily chances of higher based isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening showers and storms over and near the higher terrain. These
storms will produce more wind than rain, with the continued threat
of cloud to ground lightning. Further east across the far southeast
Plains, low level moisture will remain in place, bringing the threat
of a few stronger storms producing hail and locally heavy rainfall.

As temperatures warm through the Holiday weekend, high and fast
flows can be expected across area rivers and streams, especially
across the eastern San Juan mountains and into the San Luis Valley,
as the high mountain snowpack continues to melt.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
652 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

COZ084>086-260115-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
652 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...Gusty outflow winds will impact portions of central El Paso and
north central Pueblo Counties through 715 PM MDT...

At 651 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from near
Ellicott to near Hanover. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Gusty outflow winds
will be near...  Ellicott around 655 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3906 10463 3851 10474 3843 10434 3902 10433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 135DEG 12KT 3885 10435 3855 10439

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
705 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

COZ077-079-083-260145-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
705 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Fremont
County through 745 PM MDT...

At 705 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canon City, or 17 miles northwest of Junkins Burn Scar, moving north
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Florence, Canon City and Royal Gorge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10520 3832 10535 3848 10531 3842 10508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 194DEG 8KT 3836 10524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
707 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             1 NE FOUNTAIN           38.69N 104.70W
05/25/2023  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
739 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

COZ072-076-077-260215-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
739 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Fremont
County through 815 PM MDT...

At 739 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coaldale, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coaldale, Cotopaxi and Howard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 10580 3842 10587 3856 10573 3839 10558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 235DEG 6KT 3843 10576

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
752 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

COZ085-086-260230-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
752 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern El Paso and
northern Pueblo Counties through 830 PM MDT...

At 752 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pinon, or 15 miles northeast of Pueblo, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern El Paso
and northern Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 10447 3844 10457 3855 10449 3850 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 204DEG 5KT 3846 10448

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
754 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

COZ084-085-260230-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
754 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central El Paso
County through 830 PM MDT...

At 754 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellicott, or 27 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Yoder around 810 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 10405 3883 10406 3880 10433 3887 10441
      3904 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 243DEG 14KT 3886 10431

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG