Severe Thunderstorm Warning 354, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Key messages:

1) Severe storms possible on the plains early this evening.

2) Hotter and drier most locations on Tue.

Fairly strong upper wave crossing Colorado today, with scattered
thunderstorms firing over the area in response. Storms over the
mountains have been high based, as drier air continues to
spread eastward across the region, with drying now moving into
the I-25 corridor as of 230 pm behind departing convection.
Best chance for strong/severe storms into early evening will lie
across the southeast plains, where moisture/instability (Surface
CAPE up to 2500 J/KG) are more plentiful and strong outflow boundary
moving quickly eastward will provide forcing for ascent. Strong
winds will be the main threat with storms as they move quickly
eastward, though with high instability in place, large hail will be
possible, especially with any storm that can avoid being undercut by
main outflow boundary. Activity should push east into KS and end
rapidly this evening, and most locations will be convection-free by
sunset.

Upper ridge builds over the state Tue, with drier air spreading
across all of southern Colorado as dryline pushes east in KS. Still
just enough moisture around over the mountains to generate some
isolated afternoon convection, especially back over the San Juans,
though rainfall from most activity will be light. Main story Tue
will be the return of summer-time heat, with some triple digit
maxes likely around Pueblo, and readings into the 90s over the
plains and valleys. With the heat, fire danger will be increasing
across the area, though winds look to stay below critical thresholds
at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Key Messages:

1) Hot and Dry Tuesday-Wednesday.

2) Cold front Thursday, with storms possible in the evening.

3) Cooler and unsettled towards next weekend.

Not much change in the long-term forecast from the last few days. An
upper-level ridge will continue to build in overhead, allowing for
hot and dry conditions to dominate our area Tuesday-Thursday. These
days will see highs in the 90s over the high valleys and potentially
low 100s over parts of the eastern plains. Will have to be on the
lookout for any Heat highlights that become necessary should these
conditions persist. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will
be possible in the afternoon, mainly over the mountains. These
showers should be relatively weak due to a lack of any synoptic
forcing, and will be mostly fueled by diurnal heat and the
topography. Given the very dry surface conditions we are expecting,
the most impact a shower will likely have is some gusty outflow
winds. Currently, winds appear too weak beneath the synoptic high
for any fire weather concerns despite the dry airmass in place.

More active and unsettled weather is still on tap for late this week
into this weekend. Moisture will begin to return to the eastern
plains on Thursday, but mostly just along the CO-KS border,
increasing the chance for afternoon thunderstorms along these
counties. Models are still in disagreement on the speed of our next
incoming wave aloft, but the general consensus is for some time late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday Night. As it passes, precipitation
coverage will increase over the eastern plains. Post-front,
temperatures on Friday will drop around 10 degrees, and wetter, more
unsettled weather will persist into next weekend across most of our
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, as convection will be east of
all terminals by 22z-00z this evening. Low risk of a vcts and gusty
winds at KALS after 18z Tue as some convection develops over the
mountains, though risk looks too low to include in the taf at this
point.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-111730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1118 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains at midday
will spread across the plains through the afternoon and early
evening. One or two storms could become severe just east of the
I-25 corridor with gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph possible near
high based thunderstorms. As thunderstorms encounter greater
moisture east of a dry line, they could produce hail of an inch or
greater in diameter along with wind gusts up to 70 mph as they
near the Kansas border. Thunderstorms will end from west to east
by the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected over the Continental
Divide Region, San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas River Valley, with
gusty winds and low daytime humidities expected.

Temperatures will increase this week to above average values, and
could lead to a higher heat risk and heat related issues,
particularly across the San Luis Valley region.

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage starting Thursday and
continue through the weekend. Strong to severe storms will be
possible, particularly across the eastern plains. Trends will need
to be monitored closely to better hone down area of greatest concern
and possible hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
228 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

COZ089-093-095-102100-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
228 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Otero,
southwestern Kiowa, and Crowley Counties through 300 PM MDT...

At 227 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Sugar City, or 33 miles north of La Junta, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Damaging winds could extend well ahead of
         thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Ford, Fowler, Ordway, Manzanola, Olney Springs, Sugar City,
Cheraw and Crowley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3807 10352 3803 10406 3844 10405 3852 10385
      3852 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 309DEG 31KT 3844 10374

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
244 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

COZ086-088-093-094-102115-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
244 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Otero, central Las
Animas, and southeastern Pueblo Counties through 315 PM MDT...

At 243 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Manzanola to 6 miles north of
Delhi to 11 miles northeast of Aguilar. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, North La Junta, Rocky Ford, Swink, Delhi, Higbee, Model,
Timpas, Thatcher and Tyrone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 10462 3777 10413 3805 10406 3807 10340
      3782 10340 3761 10341 3725 10412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 287DEG 31KT 3799 10389 3772 10400 3748 10447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

COZ088-093-094-097-102145-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
314 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Otero,
central Las Animas and southwestern Bent Counties through 345 PM
MDT...

At 313 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rocky Ford to 11 miles south of Timpas to
6 miles southeast of Aguilar. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Damaging winds could extend well ahead of
         thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, North La Junta, Rocky Ford, Las Animas, Swink, Higbee,
Model, Hoehne, Timpas, Thatcher, Tyrone and John Martin Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 10315 3749 10322 3714 10407 3732 10473
      3768 10388 3807 10382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 289DEG 37KT 3798 10376 3765 10376 3734 10458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
341 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

COZ088-093-094-097-102215-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
341 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Otero,
northwestern Baca, eastern Las Animas and southwestern Bent Counties
through 415 PM MDT...

At 340 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near North La Junta to 11 miles southwest of
Higbee to near Hoehne. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Damaging winds could extend well ahead of
         thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, Higbee, Model, Hoehne, Tyrone and Trinchera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 10448 3740 10441 3764 10366 3798 10367
      3800 10305 3755 10308 3722 10344 3704 10401
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 273DEG 34KT 3790 10356 3763 10357 3721 10433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
413 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

COZ094-097>099-102245-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
413 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Prowers,
northwestern Baca, east central Las Animas and southern Bent Counties
through 445 PM MDT...

At 412 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles south of Las Animas to 18 miles
southeast of Higbee. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Damaging winds may extend well ahead of
         thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Pritchett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 10262 3724 10279 3755 10339 3798 10330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 284DEG 32KT 3787 10318 3753 10328

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr