Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Key messages:

1)  Uptick in thunderstorms across the area today with drier air
spreading in from the west favoring a damaging wind gust risk for
most of the southeast plains.

Patchy stratus and fog will continue to lurk across the southeast
plains where dew points remain in the lower to mid 60s as of 3 AM.
As long as winds stay northerly across El Paso county, any lingering
patches should continue eroding through the early morning hours.
However locations south and eastward will see some patchy clouds and
fog through the morning hours.

A shortwave trough entering western CO will ride through the top of
the upper ridge across CO today, firing off isolated to scattered
high based showers and thunderstorms early in the day.  Dew points
in the 60s across the plains will retreat eastward as a lee side
surface low pushes eastward in response to the early day system
passage across the mountains. Therefore thunderstorms will be high
based for the mountains, I-25 corridor and adjacent plains with
soundings exhibiting inverted V profiles. So, while thunderstorm
chances increase today with most of the plains outlooked under a
Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, the risk will be primarily
associated with localized downburst winds as DCAPE should be running
1000-1500+ J/kg.  Better moisture will reside along the CO/KS border
in the afternoon, and as thunderstorms spread eastward they could
tap higher CAPE values across the eastern most counties, resulting
in a large hail risk as well damaging downburst winds.  All activity
pushes eastward into KS by late afternoon or early evening.

Drier air spreading in behind the system should allow for cooler
overnight lows where surface winds decouple and clear skies allow
for good radiational cooling.  Dropped lows from model blends for
some of our cooler mountain valley locations.  Otherwise, should be
a quiet night across southern CO. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Key Messages:

1) Hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions for part of the
midweek period.

2) Relatively cooler temperatures with an increase in precipitation
chances for the end of the week and through the weekend.

Tuesday - Wednesday: For the first part of the midweek period, a
relatively quiet stretch of weather is anticipated for southern
Colorado. A large dome of high pressure will expand northward over
the area throughout this period. This feature will increase synoptic
subsidence over the area, which is unfavorable for precipitation
development. Given this, mostly dry conditions are expected for much
of southern Colorado. The exception to this will be along the
mountains where diurnal upsloping will aid in isolated rain shower
and thunderstorm development during the afternoons. Looking at
temperatures, a hot couple of days is anticipated. With the high
pressure in place, along with some downsloping winds, much of the
area will warm to above average values for this time of year.

Thursday - Sunday: For the rest of the long term period, an uptick
in active weather is expected for the area. Synoptically, the
aforementioned dome of high pressure will get flattened out early
in this time frame and then shoved to the west. This movement
will allow for shortwaves/northwesterly flow to materialize over
southern Colorado. With the uptick in forcing/flow, and some
return of moisture, precipitation chances are expected to increase
across the area, especially over the eastern plains. While still
uncertain, there are still signals that some severe weather may
develop during this period across the plains. As for temperatures,
Thursday is anticipated to be the warmest day. Then Friday
through Sunday will be cooler, and around to slightly below
average as a modest cold front drops southward sometime late
Thursday/early Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains at 18z will
move across lower elevations 19z-22z, though with dry low levels,
most storms will produce gusty winds but little in the way of
rainfall. Given rather sparse coverage and limited storm
intensity, won't include any ts mention in the tafs, but may need
to add a brief (<1hr) vcts depending on storm evolution. After
22z storms will be east of the terminals, with VFR conditions
expected this evening and overnight. Winds at all sites will turn
nw and gust 30-35 kts after 20z-22z, then diminish after 01z-03z
this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-111730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1118 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains at midday
will spread across the plains through the afternoon and early
evening. One or two storms could become severe just east of the
I-25 corridor with gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph possible near
high based thunderstorms. As thunderstorms encounter greater
moisture east of a dry line, they could produce hail of an inch or
greater in diameter along with wind gusts up to 70 mph as they
near the Kansas border. Thunderstorms will end from west to east
by the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected over the Continental
Divide Region, San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas River Valley, with
gusty winds and low daytime humidities expected.

Temperatures will increase this week to above average values, and
could lead to a higher heat risk and heat related issues,
particularly across the San Luis Valley region.

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage starting Thursday and
continue through the weekend. Strong to severe storms will be
possible, particularly across the eastern plains. Trends will need
to be monitored closely to better hone down area of greatest concern
and possible hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/10

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1256 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

COZ079-086-101930-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
1256 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Pueblo
County through 130 PM MDT...

At 1255 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Beulah, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beulah and Colorado City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 10505 3820 10496 3812 10461 3790 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 292DEG 27KT 3811 10493

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ehr