Alert archive / Colorado / Red Flag Warnings in 2023

Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Pueblo, CO

March 29, 202310 counties in Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this red flag warning at Mar 29, 2023, 5:27 AM MDT for 10 counties in Colorado. It took effect at Mar 30, 2023, 11:00 AM MDT. It was in force for 11 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 29, 2023, 5:27 AM MDT (11:27 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 30, 2023, 11:00 AM MDT
Expired
Mar 30, 2023, 10:00 PM MDT
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Pueblo, CO

Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 30, 1:20 PM MDTDUST STORM13 Wnw Two Buttes, COHWY 287 HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN FROM SPRINGFIELD TO LAMAR FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
Mar 30, 2:16 PM MDTNON-TSTM WND GST 626 S Trinidad, COMESONET STATION CO025 025N008 RATON PASS.
Mar 30, 2:23 PM MDTNON-TSTM WND GST 654 E Thatcher, COMESONET STATION CCEC2 PINION CANYON.
Mar 30, 3:05 PM MDTNON-TSTM WND GST 589 S Springfield, COASOS STATION KSPD 8 S SPRINGFIELD.
Mar 30, 3:18 PM MDTNON-TSTM WND GST 624 S Cheraw, COASOS STATION KLHX LA JUNTA AIRPORT.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 328 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2023-03-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2023-03-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 2 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2389 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
139 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

000 
WWUS85 KPUB 291127
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
527 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023


COZ227>233-235>237-300330-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0008.230330T1700Z-230331T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0014.230330T1700Z-230331T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0009.230331T1700Z-230401T0100Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
527 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227,
228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235, 236, AND 237...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232,
233, 235, 236, AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232,
  233, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Temperatures...In the mid 50s.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ226-234-300330-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0008.230330T1700Z-230331T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0014.230330T1700Z-230331T0200Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
527 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226
AND 234...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226 and 234.

* Winds...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Temperatures...In the mid 60s.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
936 
WWUS85 KPUB 292051
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
251 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023


COZ227>233-235>237-301300-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0009.230331T1700Z-230401T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0015.230331T1700Z-230401T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0014.230330T1700Z-230331T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
251 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235, 236, AND 
237... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235, 236, AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232,
  233, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...West 30 to 40 mph with gusts in excess of 60 mph on
  Thursday. Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  on Friday. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for extreme rates of 
  fire growth and spread, with Thursday being the most volatile 
  day.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226-234-301300-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0015.230331T1700Z-230401T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0014.230330T1700Z-230331T0200Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
251 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 226 AND 234... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR 
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226 
AND 234...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226 and 234.

* Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for extreme rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
727 
WWUS85 KPUB 301000
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
400 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

COZ226>237-310200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0014.230330T1700Z-230331T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.230331T1700Z-230401T0100Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
400 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233,
234, 235, 236, AND 237...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, AND
237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 
  231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...For Today, southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55
  mph. For tomorrow, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45
  mph. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for extreme rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hodanish
617 
WWUS85 KPUB 302049
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

COZ226>237-311300-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0010.230401T1700Z-230402T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230331T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.230331T1700Z-230401T0100Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
249 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, AND 237... 

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT 
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, AND 
237... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING 
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 
234, 235, 236, AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231,
  232, 233, 234, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds... For Today, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70
  mph. For Tomorrow, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 
  50 mph. For Saturday, southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up
  to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for extreme rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ224-311300-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0010.230401T1700Z-230402T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
249 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$
387 
WWUS85 KPUB 310119
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
719 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

COZ226>237-311730-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230331T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.230331T1700Z-230401T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0010.230401T1700Z-230402T0200Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
719 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 
234, 235, 236, AND 237... 
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT 
FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 
233, 234, 235, 236, AND 237... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING 
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226, 227, 228, 
229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 
  231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...West 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for extreme rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ224-311730-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0010.230401T1700Z-230402T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
719 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$
133 
WWUS85 KPUB 310404
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1004 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

COZ226>237-312015-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230331T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.230331T1700Z-230401T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0010.230401T1700Z-230402T0200Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
1004 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 
233, 234, 235, 236, AND 237... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING 
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226, 227, 228, 
229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, AND 237... 
...RED FLAG FOR THIS EVENING HAS EXPIRED... 

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 
  231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...On Friday, west-northwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to
  60 mph. On Saturday, south-southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
  35 mph. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for extreme rapid rates 
  of fire growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ224-312015-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0010.230401T1700Z-230402T0200Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
1004 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Mar 29, 3:42 AM MDT, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 29, 3:42 AM MDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Key messages:

1) Strong and gusty winds later in the afternoon, along with lower
relative humidity values, will result in some spotty critical fire
weather conditions over portions of the plains.

2) Downsloping winds will give way to much warmer temperatures over
the plains, with even a few locations above the seasonal average.

3) Some locations along the banana belt and over the southern plains
will see relatively warmer temperatures for lows tonight due to
gusty winds continuing through the night.

Detailed discussion:

Today...

Weak ridging over the region will be propagating eastward as a
trough upstream over the western states continues to advance closer.
This will allow for a tightening of the surface pressure gradient
and increase of southwesterly winds by later in the afternoon over
most of the higher terrain and along the southern I-25 corridor.
Given that there will be some drier air being advected in from the
southwest, along with downsloping and adiabatically warming winds,
relative humidity will drop with strong enough winds in place to
reach critical fire weather conditions for a few hours over portions
of the plains. There will be a relatively cooler airmass with an
associated boundary over the eastern plains that will determine how
far the southwesterly winds advance across the plains.

This has made it tricky to forecast high temperatures and the extent
of the fire weather concerns based on the position of this boundary
and how far it advances westward. Some of the highest resolution
models such as the HRRR keep the boundary right along the northern I-
25 corridor and then extends back through the northeast portion of
Pueblo County and then down through lower Otero and Baca counties.
This model has a bias which does tend to overmix, and the NAMNest
pushes the boundary further west and limits how far the southwest
wind component penetrates. There looks to also be a lee-side meso-low
which shows up in both models that forms over Pueblo Country during
the late part of the afternoon. That being said, there is higher
confidence that the strong and gusty southwesterly winds will remain
confined to the southern I-25 corridor, and not much further
eastward than Huerfano and Las Animas counties.

Depending on how far the colder air advances west will also dictate
what the high temperatures do for the plains. If the colder air
undercuts the southwesterly flow and makes it further west, it could
hinder some locations from reaching their current projected high
temperatures. Otherwise, because the colder airmass is relatively
shallow and mixing should be sufficient, as well as a higher sun
angle and only passing mid level clouds, most locations west of the
Las Animas/Baca County line should warm up considerably. There could
even be some locations around the southern I-25 corridor that will
break to 70 degree mark, while the eastern plains remain cooler and
closer to the seasonal average. Temperatures over the higher terrain
will also be noticeably warmer from where they were yesterday.

Tonight...

Locations along the banana belt and southern plains will experience
relatively warmer temperatures due to the downsloping and
southwesterly winds continuing over these areas, which will keep the
lower levels mixed. North and east of the boundary over the plains
will become much colder due to lack of wind and more efficient
radiational cooling. Expect these temperatures to fall into the 20s,
while the southern plains will struggle to get below 40 degrees.
Winds will continue to increase out of the southwest over the higher
terrain through the night, with temperatures only dropping into the
teens and 20s for most locations, and even some lower 30s for the
mid and upper Arkansas River Valley.  -Stewey

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Key messages:

1) Very critical fire weather conditions Thursday for the I25
corridor and eastern plains.

2) Critical fire weather conditions likely Friday.

.Thursday...Strong upper trough moves eastward across the Great
Basin. Southwest flow aloft strengthen with 700mb winds in the 35
to 50 knot range. With a deepening lee trough, windy to very windy
conditions will develop over the region. Humidities on the plains
and I25 corridor will lower into the single digits during the day
resulting in very critical fire weather conditions. Along with
surrounding offices, upgraded the fire weather watch to a red flag
warning. The warning was extended to 8PM given the lower
humidities will linger on the plains, especially near the Kansas
border. This will be a higher end fire weather day so extra
caution is advised. The San Luis Valley was not included in the
red flag warning as humidities will stay around 20 percent. Did
not touch the high wind watch. Winds in the grids approach or just
exceed high wind criteria mainly over the southeast mountains and
nearby plains. Despite the strong southwest flow aloft, moisture
will be fairly limited and snowfall amounts for the eastern San
Juans stay just below advisory criteria.

.Friday...The strong trough will move east of the state with dry
northwest flow behind the trough. Main concern will be critical
fire weather conditions along the I25 corridor and much of the
eastern plains. Humidities in the San Luis Valley are approaching
critical fire weather values and will have to watch for fire
weather highlights. The northwest flow will be relatively dry and
expect sub advisory snow amounts in the mountains of Lake and
Chaffee Counties.

.Saturday and Sunday...Upper ridge builds over the region with
dry and mild weather. Will have to watch for critical fire weather
conditions over the I25 corridor and eastern plains. Daytime
humidities are forecast to be near of below critical values, but
winds may not be sufficiently strong given the upper ridge aloft.

.Monday and Tuesday...Upper trough approaches from the west on
Monday. Models and ensemble means suggest some snow will move into
the mountains later on Monday. This setup would be favorable for
critical fire weather conditions on the plains given the low
humidities and potential for increased winds. The bulk of the
ensembles have the system moving to the north of the region. This
would bring a chance for some snow to Continental Divide region.
Like the past few systems, the ensemble charts suggest the system
may be slow enough and far enough south to get some precipitation
into the northern portions of the I25 corridor and portions of the
eastern mountains.--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will initially
be more diurnally driven and then become more influenced by synoptic
features later in the forecast period. At KALS, southerly winds will
become more SSW'ly later in the morning, and then become gusty
during the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kts. At KCOS, a weak
diurnal NNE'ly wind this morning will switch to a SE'ly direction
after 17Z and then increase by later in the afternoon, with gusts up
to 22 kts. This wind will weaken by later in the evening and switch
back to the NE as the diurnal flow takes over around 07Z. At KPUB,
winds will switch from a weak diurnal WNW'ly flow to a SE'ly
direction later in the morning after 17Z. They will also become
gusty up to 22 kts in the afternoon, then weaken and back to the NE
initially, and eventually return to the WNW towards the end of the
forecast period at around 08Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for COZ069>075-077>080-083-086>088-094-099.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ226>237.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for COZ227>233-235>237.

&&

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...STEWARD
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 29, 3:57 AM MDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
357 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-301300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
357 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Spotty critical fire weather conditions are possible over portions
of the I-25 corridor and plains during the mid and late afternoon
time period. Please do not burn in these areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday over the
Interstate 25 corridor and eastern plains with windy conditions
and low daytime humidities. Damaging winds are possible over the
southeast mountains, southern Interstate 25 corridor, and
southern portions of the plains. On Friday, there is the threat
for critical fire weather conditions over the Interstate 25
corridor and much of the eastern plains. The threat for some
critical fire weather conditions continues into the weekend over
the Interstate 25 corridor and eastern plains.

Snow is anticipated Thursday into Friday over the Continental
Divide region. Light to moderate accumulations are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

STEWARD/06

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 29, 2:51 PM MDTRed Flag WarningPUBBaca, Bent, Crowley, El Paso, Huerfano, Kiowa and 5 more52 hr
Mar 29, 2:58 PM MDTWinter Weather AdvisoryPUBChaffee, Conejos, Lake, Mineral, Rio Grande, Saguache45 hr
Mar 29, 3:05 PM MDTHigh Wind WarningPUBAlamosa, Baca, Chaffee, Conejos, Costilla, Custer and 8 more28 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Colorado, 2023Every red flag warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.