Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
403 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
As a warm front lifts northward across our area through tonight,
weak low pressure will arrive late tonight. A cold front then
crosses our area during Tuesday, followed by high pressure Wednesday
into Thursday. A cold front is then scheduled to move through by
later Friday with high pressure mainly in place Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet conditions continue with a weak surface high still in control
before conditions deteriorate throughout the mid to late afternoon
hours and tonight. Shield of precip is moving across western
Pennsylvania and will slide east through the afternoon. Current
thinking is that a good portion of the day across our area should
stay precip free under variable cloud cover, though can't rule out a
few early showers poking into our eastern PA counties. Expect highs
mainly in the 85 to 90 range.

A potent upper level will continue to trek across the Ohio River
Valley and advancing a strengthening surface low along with it.
Ahead of the main low, a warm front will continue to lift northward
through our area and likely reach northern New Jersey by this
evening bringing with it an increase in cloud coverage. Synoptically
speaking, upper level diffluence downstream of the mid level trough
axis, shortwave support, and placement in the right entrance region
of a departing jet streak will all aid in large scale lift. The 12z
suite of hi res guidance has mostly all locked on to a 7-8pm arrival
time of precipitation into our area from the west. It appears likely
that the timeframe for the heaviest precipitation will be the 03-08z
timeframe as an 850 mb low level jet ramps up to nearly 40 knots and
enhances coverage and rainfall rates. This all will occur in an
environment characterized by precipitable water values nearing 2.5-
2.6 inches (exceeds the daily maximum climatological value), warm
cloud depths up to 15kft, and tall, skinny CAPE. The tricky part is
still exactly how far north the warm front will end up and,
therefore, who will see the heaviest amount of rain and greatest
risk for both flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. A flood watch
is in effect from 8 pm to 6 am for all of the eastern PA counties,
most of NJ, and northern Delaware.

In regards to the flooding threat...WPC has maintained the Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall for our entire region. With very high
PWAT values, a slow-moving frontal boundary, an increasing low level
jet, and tall/skinny CAPE aiding in convective enhancement, this is
a recipe for flash flooding. The 12z HREF indicates a maximum of
precip south of I-95 extending from Kent County through Monmouth
County and another potential maximum across the Lehigh Valley. At
the moment, we are forecasting a widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall,
but convective enhancement will very likely result in locally higher
amounts where heavier rain sets up and trains.

In regards to the severe threat...SPC has maintained southeast PA,
southern NJ, and the Delmarva under a Slight Risk for severe weather
with a Marginal Risk for all northern locations. The 12z hi res
guidance continues to show widespread deep layer shear values of 30
to 50 knots across the region with the low level jet ramping up this
evening and the nose of a 500 mb jet axis encroaching. Instability
is progged to reach into the 750-1000 J/kg range, with values
possibly reaching towards 1500 across Delmarva. With the veering
winds with height, hodographs look quite intense for this part of
the county (some guidance pushes 0-1 km SRH values into the mid-
upper 100s m2/s2). The main concerns with this environment will be
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The limiting factor,
however, would be a potential stable layer that the latest hi res
forecast soundings are depicting. With the warm front lifting north
and an elevated warm nose evident on soundings, the heavy rainfall
and loss of daytime heating may allow the near surface layer to cool
and create a near surface inversion before the push of warmer near
surface air arrives. If this were to materialize, the severe threat
would be suppressed and result in likely a good bit of lightning,
but lead to the primary threat being very heavy rainfall.

The storms should eventually move out overnight tonight as the warm
front lifts north of the area as low pressure moves north and east
towards Lake Erie on Tuesday morning. This will put the area in the
system's warm sector leading to a very warm and muggy night. Outside
of the highest elevations of the Poconos, don't expect lows to get
below the low to mid 70s with the continued warm advection behind
the warm front and thick cloud coverage.

We will see a break in the precip Tuesday morning as we remain in
the open warm sector. Dewpoints look high for tomorrow, increasing
the heat index into values in the mid to upper 90s across the
region, resulting in another sticky and humid day. The upper low
will slide east through the day before eventually absorbing back
into the flow Tuesday night. Cloud coverage will hang around through
the first part of the day before decreasing from south to north in
the early afternoon. This will allow for destabilization in the warm
sector ahead of the approaching cold front which will reinvigorate
another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening, some of which again may be strong to severe. SPC maintains
a slight risk for Delmarva and Southern NJ and a marginal risk
covering SE PA and the rest of NJ. Recent runs of the CAMs have
continued to indicate Delmarva as the primary region of concern.
Forecast soundings show steep low level lapse rates, 1000-1500 J/kg
of CAPE, and effective shear values around 40 kt. With the southwest
to northeast orientation of the cold front accompanied by the
southwest to northeast unidirectional flow through the column, the
storms are likely to grow upscale and favor a linear mode. As a
result, the primary hazard is damaging wind gusts, though wouldn't
rule out some localized flooding concerns as WPC has most of
Delmarva and the southeast half of New Jersey in a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday and Wednesday will be dominated by a weakening positive-tilt
upper-level trough. At the surface, a boundary should be offshore
however it may stall nearby as the trough weakens aloft and a ridge
is well to our east.

As the cold front moves through Tuesday evening, some showers and
thunderstorms are expected especially from about the I-95 corridor
on south and eastward. Some storms could produce strong winds
especially across southern New Jersey and Delmarva. As the forcing
for ascent weakens with time, convection is expected to weaken and
then dissipate. In the wake of the front, surface dew points will
lower some and therefore turning a bit less humid. Surface high
pressure then starts to build in during Wednesday, however some
troughing aloft will linger and this could focus a shower or storm.
Given enough drying taking place on Wednesday, opted to keep the
forecast dry.

As we go through Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to be
shifting eastward from the Midwest, Great Lakes and adjacent Canada.
If the timing of this feature is slower, than another dry day
results however some guidance is a little faster with even some
interaction with a potentially westward moving baroclinic zone
initially offshore. If the latter would occur, increasing moisture
and even some forcing for ascent could result in some convection
during the afternoon and evening especially closer to the coast.
Given the uncertainty with the details, just included slight chance
PoPs (20 percent) for coastal areas in the afternoon which then
expand inland at night. The dew points are forecast to be on the
increase once again Thursday and therefore a more humid day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Summary...Some cooling and less humid air to start the weekend then
potentially warmer and more humid into early next week.

Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough is forecast to pivot
across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions Friday, however this
trough may persist along the East Coast through Saturday. A building
ridge across the center of the nation may then start expanding
eastward some. At the surface, a cold front moves through by later
Friday, then high pressure may remain in our vicinity Saturday into
early next week.

For Friday...An upper-level trough swings across the Northeast and
northern Mid-Atlantic regions, and this will drive a cold front
across our region. While some convection cannot be ruled out ahead
of and with the cold front, the main forcing for ascent may end up
lifting to our north which is closer to the core of the upper-level
trough. For now, opted to keep mainly slight chance PoPs (20
percent) in the forecast. It will be warm and humid ahead of the
front, then drier air will start to arrive at night along with a
clearing sky.

For Saturday...Most of the guidance maintains the southwestern
portion of the aforementioned upper-level trough across our area
which keeps cyclonic flow over our area. At the surface, high
pressure is forecast to be building in and a cooler and less humid
air mass is expected to accompany it. This will result in a dry and
more comfortable day.

For Sunday and Monday...A large ridge is forecast to continue
building across the central part of the nation and some guidance
shows it trying to expand some toward our area. However, a trough or
closed low centered near the Canadian Maritimes may prevent the
ridge from sliding all that much eastward, with our area under a
northwest flow. Heights are forecast to build some given the overall
trough shifting farther to our northeast and this should result in
temperatures increasing. The details however are of lower confidence
given we will between an expansive ridge and a closed low.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today (through 00z)...VFR through the late afternoon with
lowering cloud bases. Chances for showers increase this evening
around the the 22-23z hour. Southeasterly wind around 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Tonight (00z through 12z)...Sub-VFR conditions likely with showers
and thunderstorms. Have maintained a VCTS group beginning at 02z for
all terminals continuing through the overnight hours. Expect
prevailing IFR CIGs overnight for all terminals with VIS holding in
the MVFR range outside of embedded heavier rain when VIS may dip
into IFR for a period of time. Southeasterly wind around 5-10 kt.
Low confidence.

Tuesday...A return to VFR likely beginning around 14z as clouds
clear out from south to north. Remaining VFR until the afternoon
when a cold front invigorates another round of showers and
thunderstorms most likely for KMIV/KACY/KILG when temporary sub-VFR
restrictions are possible. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Some evening showers and thunderstorms with
local sub-VFR conditions possible especially along and south of
I-95, otherwise VFR. Southwest to west-northwest winds 5 knots
or less. Low confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming light and
variable at night. Moderate confidence.

Thursday...Mostly VFR. A small chance of a shower or thunderstorm in
the afternoon and evening. Winds becoming southwest 5-10 knots. Low
confidence.

Friday...Mostly VFR, however a shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. Southwest to west-northwest 10-15 knots with gusts to 20
knots, diminishing at night. Low confidence.

Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds 5-10 knots. Moderate
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through Tuesday night.
Showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night may bring heavy
rainfall. Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible
Tuesday afternoon. Southeasterly winds Monday night becoming
Southwesterly on Tuesday at 10-15 kt. Seas 2-4 ft.

Outlook...

The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory
criteria Tuesday night through Saturday. However, some gusty
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Rip currents...

Through tonight, an onshore flow around 10 MPH will occur. With
a medium period southeast swell and breaking waves 2 to 3 feet,
there will be a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches.

For Tuesday, winds turn southwesterly at 10-15 MPH. A medium
period southerly swell, with breaking waves 2 to 3 feet, will
result in a LOW risk for the development of rip currents at the
Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late tonight
     for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late tonight
     for NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
DE...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late tonight
     for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Brudy/Fanning
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Brudy/Gorse
MARINE...Brudy/Gorse

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

DEZ001-152119-
New Castle-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for New Castle County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002-152119-
Kent-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ003-152119-
Inland Sussex-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Sussex County
in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-152119-
Delaware Beaches-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of
Sussex County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ054-152119-
Carbon-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Carbon County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ055-152119-
Monroe-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Monroe County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ060-152119-
Berks-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Berks County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ061-152119-
Lehigh-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lehigh County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ062-152119-
Northampton-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northampton County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ070-152119-
Delaware-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ071-152119-
Philadelphia-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Philadelphia County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ101-152119-
Western Chester-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Chester County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ102-152119-
Eastern Chester-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Chester County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ103-152119-
Western Montgomery-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Montgomery County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ104-152119-
Eastern Montgomery-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Montgomery County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ105-152119-
Upper Bucks-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Bucks County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ106-152119-
Lower Bucks-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Bucks County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ001-152119-
Sussex-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Sussex County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ007-152119-
Warren-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Warren County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ008-152119-
Morris-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Morris County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ009-152119-
Hunterdon-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Hunterdon County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ010-152119-
Somerset-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Somerset County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ012-152119-
Middlesex-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middlesex County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ013-152119-
Western Monmouth-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Monmouth County in New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ014-152119-
Eastern Monmouth-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Monmouth County in New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ015-152119-
Mercer-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Mercer County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ016-152119-
Salem-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Salem County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ017-152119-
Gloucester-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gloucester County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ018-152119-
Camden-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Camden County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ019-152119-
Northwestern Burlington-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Burlington County in
New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ020-152119-
Ocean-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Ocean County
in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ021-152119-
Cumberland-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cumberland County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ022-152119-
Atlantic-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Atlantic
County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ023-152119-
Cape May-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cape May County excluding the
Atlantic coast in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ024-152119-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of
Cape May County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ025-152119-
Coastal Atlantic-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Atlantic
County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ026-152119-
Coastal Ocean-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Ocean County
in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ027-152119-
Southeastern Burlington-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Burlington County in
New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ012-152119-
Kent MD-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ015-152119-
Queen Annes-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Queen Annes County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ019-152119-
Talbot-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Talbot County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ020-152119-
Caroline-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Caroline County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-152119-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Delaware Bay.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ431-152119-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Delaware Bay.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ450-152119-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Monmouth County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ451-152119-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Ocean County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ452-152119-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Atlantic County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ453-152119-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Cape May County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ454-152119-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to the mouth of Delaware Bay out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ455-152119-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
0519 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Sussex County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
516 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

MDZ012-015-019-142200-
Queen Anne's MD-Talbot MD-Kent MD-
516 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Talbot, southwestern
Queen Anne's and central Kent Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rhode River to near Breezy Point to Saint
Leonard Creek. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Easton, Talbot, Romancoke, Trappe, St. Michaels, Grasonville,
Tilghman Island, Stevensville, Skipton, Copperville, Chester, Wye
Mills, Hambleton, Cordova, Queenstown and Stevensville South.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 7635 3886 7626 3879 7620 3879 7619
      3897 7625 3884 7637 3904 7631 3898 7628
      3900 7617 3917 7615 3880 7596 3858 7605
      3876 7622 3871 7628 3878 7629 3876 7632
      3867 7634 3877 7638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 242DEG 32KT 3885 7656 3862 7644 3840 7653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
549 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

MDZ012-015-142215-
Queen Anne's MD-Kent MD-
549 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Queen Anne's
and southwestern Kent Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 549 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Overton, or 9 miles east of Magothy River, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Centerville, Chestertown, Centreville, Rock Hall, Church Hill, Old
Town, Grasonville, Stevensville, Langford, Overton, Starkey Corner,
Queenstown and Kingstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 7631 3898 7628 3897 7622 3900 7617
      3903 7624 3909 7623 3915 7628 3928 7620
      3929 7618 3915 7591 3892 7620 3894 7624
      3896 7625 3899 7633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 217DEG 26KT 3904 7625

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPS