Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1017 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level trough over the eastern states will gradually
lift north and eastward through today before shifting offshore.
The next low pressure system will track across the Great Lakes
Monday, pushing a strong cold front toward our area later Monday. As
this low slides across our area later Tuesday into Wednesday, a cold
front will cross our region. Weak high pressure may then settle near
our area Thursday and Friday, although another cold front may be
draped to our north while weak low pressure tracks near Delmarva
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest analysis depicts a weakening surface low off to the
northeast of the region. High pressure is centered over the
western Atlantic and the southern Appalachians. Aloft, a closed
low is meandering near our region, heading slowly eastward as it
weakens.

We are continuing to see mostly dry conditions CWA-wide this
morning, though it still looks like the dry window will close
quickly as the upper low drifts across the area, opening up into
a trough but still potent enough, when combined with the very
tropical air mass now in place, should result in a start to
convection by early this afternoon today. Not expecting a
washout, but certainly a fair chunk of the area, especially
north of the PA Turnpike/I-195, likely sees some wet weather for
a little while this afternoon. Fortunately, the lack of a cap
should generally keep storms from going severe, unlike what we
expect for Monday (see below). However, with greater instability
and stronger low-level lapse rates compared to yesterday, a few
isolated storms may be on the stronger side and capable of
producing sub-severe gusts around 40 to 50 mph. With these
stronger updrafts, localized heavy rain will also remain a
concern given storms likely move slowly as well. Highs should
reach the 80s again, a few degrees above yesterday's readings
for most.

Tonight, convection likely diminishes for a time, but
strengthening low level jet ahead of the next, stronger storm
system will probably result in showers and perhaps some
thunderstorms redeveloping after midnight into the pre-dawn
hours on Monday. Right now not expecting severe weather with
this given the overnight timing, but heavy rain will again be a
concern. Lows will be in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Summary...Very warm and humid Monday, and showers and thunderstorms
become widespread during the afternoon and evening hours when severe
thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds and hail the main
threats. There is also some flash flood risk Monday into Tuesday.

For Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to be tracking across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Plenty of moisture will be in place
and therefore it will be humid once again, although plenty of
boundary layer heating may result in the surface dew points lowering
some. Areas of stratus may greet us to start the day, however that
should lift and breakup through the morning into the afternoon. The
heating combined with dew points around 70F will result in ample
instability for showers and thunderstorms to quickly develop by
midday, however these should initially be isolated to scattered.

Deeper convection is forecast to develop to our west near a pre-
frontal trough. The model forecast soundings indicate some discrete
cells out that way should quickly consolidate into a convective line
as it shifts eastward. An examination of model point forecast
soundings indicate ample instability developing along with rather
steep low-level lapse rates, and the mid level lapse are on the
steeper side as well. The shear profiles are somewhat on the weaker
side, however model soundings show some initial backed low-level
flow with around 30 knots of shear. This would be enough when
combined with strong forcing for ascent arriving for the risk for
severe thunderstorms. Storms should organize into a line as it
approaches our region with damaging winds and some hail the main
threats. Given the backed near surface flow ahead of the line,
cannot rule out some rotation within the eastward advancing squall
line (QLCS) especially across Delmarva. CAM guidance shows
convection quickly becoming linear, with even some hinting at strong
outflow winds. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, downdraft
instability (DCAPE) should be on the high side, which will enhance
convective winds down to the surface especially associated with any
forward surges in the line. The Storm Prediction Center pretty much
has our entire area in a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms on Monday. While the convective line moves off the
coast during the early evening, some additional convection may still
move through although this should be weaker and less organized.
Eventually as the environment becomes worked over, convection should
be on the decrease overnight.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm risk, areas of heavy rain
look probable given precipitable water values forecast to be 1.50 to
nearly 2 inches. This abundant moisture is an indicator for the
potential for excessive rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has
most of our area in a Slight risk for excessive rainfall Monday. In
addition, south to southwesterly flow may foster some training cells
which would enhance the local flash flood threat. The rainfall is
needed, however excessive hourly rainfall rates would locally
enhance the flash flood potential especially in the urban areas. A
caveat to this would be if the high rainfall rates only occur with a
steady eastward moving squall line, as this will limit the duration
of the heaviest rain.

It will be very warm Monday especially if convection holds off
longer and more sunshine can occur. Heat indices are forecast to top
out around 90 degrees for much of the I-95 corridor especially, with
even low to mid 90s in Delmarva.

As we go through Tuesday, an upper-level trough will settle across
the eastern states. This will have surface low pressure with it that
moves across mostly the Northeast. The presence of this trough along
with increased chances for some convection will keep temperatures
down some. The details regarding the convection will depend on the
timing of the large scale or even mesoscale forcing for ascent
processes, and at this time range there is lowered confidence on
these especially tied to intensity. There should be a window of
opportunity though where showers and some thunderstorms increase
with surface heating combined with a surface front moving through. A
humid airmass is forecast to still be in place, therefore some
locally heavy rain is possible. The thunderstorm intensity remains
less certain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Summary...Additional opportunities for some showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures should generally be close to average.

Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough across the East Wednesday
is forecast to weaken some and gradually lift out later Thursday and
Friday before the next upper-level trough starts to approach from
the west. The initial trough will keep surface low pressure shifting
across the Northeast Wednesday. A cold front attached to this will
work its way to our east Wednesday. Weak high pressure may then
arrive nearby Thursday and Friday while a cold front lurks to the
north and then weak low pressure may track near Delmarva Saturday.

For Wednesday...An upper-level trough will settle across the eastern
states. This will have surface low pressure with it that moves
across mostly the Northeast. A cold front looks to be shifting to
our east. The presence of this trough along with increased chances
for some convection will keep temperatures down some. There should
be a window of opportunity once again where showers and some
thunderstorms increase with peak surface heating and cyclonic flow
aloft. A humid airmass is forecast to still be in place, therefore
some locally heavy rain is possible. This is especially the case as
the flow is forecast to be lighter and therefore storm motions could
be slow along with convection being more of the pulse variety.
Instability and shear look to be on the weaker side, therefore
severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

For Thursday through Saturday...The upper-level trough is
forecast to still be overhead Thursday although it should be
starting to lift northeastward. This will take surface low
pressure to our northeast across New England. Despite the
surface system departing Thursday, the presence of the upper-
level trough should result in at least some chances for
additional convection. The chances should be decreasing though
especially into Friday as the main upper-level trough is
currently forecast to be lifting to our northeast. Weak high
pressure may then settle nearby, although a cold front may be
lurking to our north as the next upper-level trough takes more shape
well to our west. In addition, there could be a couple ripples of
weak low pressure along a leftover surface front to our south that
track near Delmarva Saturday. Given lower confidence at this time
range, maintained PoPs no higher than the chance range.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today through 00Z...Currently VFR at the terminals. Completely
dry window looks fairly short today as TSRA/SHRA likely develop
by midday and linger into early evening. MVFR likely in
TSRA/SHRA, but VFR should predominate otherwise with winds SW
5-10 kts.

Tonight...SW flow 5-10 kts plus lingering clouds may keep patchy
mist/fog from forming, but it will be a concern. Evening will
see most convection dwindle, but next system approaching then
looks to see more SHRA and possibly even TSRA redevelop
overnight. MVFR likely in any SHRA overnight.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR ceilings may start the day, then mainly VFR. Times of
sub-VFR conditions then probable with some showers or a thunderstorm
into midday, then a line of thunderstorms later in the afternoon and
early evening. Southerly winds 10-15 knots during the day,
diminishing to 5-10 knots at night. Low confidence on the details.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR, however some times of sub-VFR
conditions possible with some mainly afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms. Southerly winds around 10 knots, becoming
westerly Wednesday 10 knots or less. Low confidence.

Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and early evening, otherwise
VFR. West-northwest winds 5-10 knots. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
which could result in brief periods of heavy rain. South/southeasterly
wind 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook....

Monday and Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Some
showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may produce strong winds
later Monday afternoon and evening, and therefore Special Marine
Warnings may be needed.

Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions lingering especially on
the ocean zones due to elevated seas.

Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

Through this evening, there is a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents at the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. We
are expecting a southerly wind around 10 mph and breaking waves in
the surf zone around 2 feet. There is expected to be a medium period
southeast swell.

For Monday, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents as wind speeds and wave heights increase
some. We are anticipating a southerly wind of 10-15 mph with
breaking waves in the surf zone of 2-3 feet. The medium period
southeast swell will likely continue.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...AKL/RCM
SHORT TERM...AKL/Gorse
LONG TERM...AKL/Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/RCM
MARINE...Gorse/Iovino/RCM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1126 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

NJZ013-020-026-251600-
Coastal Ocean NJ-Ocean NJ-Western Monmouth NJ-
1126 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ocean
and south central Monmouth Counties through NOON EDT...

At 1125 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pleasant Plains, or over Toms River, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toms River, Lakewood, Jackson, Beachwood, Point Pleasant Beach,
Lakehurst, Mantoloking, Leisure Village, Dover Beaches North, Holiday
City South, Pleasant Plains, Cedar Glen West, Leisure Village East,
Holiday City-Berkeley, Ramtown, Brick Township, Freewood Acres,
Leisure Village West-Pine Lake Park, Pine Ridge At Crestwood and
Vista Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 24 and 28.
 Garden State Parkway between mile markers 80 and 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7397 3991 7418 4000 7440 4020 7427
      4011 7409 4009 7407 4010 7405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 215DEG 8KT 3999 7423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1220 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

NJZ013-019-020-251645-
Northwestern Burlington NJ-Ocean NJ-Western Monmouth NJ-
1220 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Ocean
County through 1245 PM EDT...

At 1220 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cedar Glen Lakes, or 11 miles west of Toms River, moving north at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toms River, Lakewood, Jackson, Lakehurst, Cassville, Woodruff,
Holiday City-Berkeley, Cedar Glen Lakes, Six Flags Theme Park,
Whiting, Cedar Glen West, Pine Ridge At Crestwood, Leisure Village
West-Pine Lake Park, Browns Mills, Holiday City South, Leisure Knoll,
Crestwood Village, Holiday City, New Egypt and Country Lake Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 7431 3996 7455 4016 7451 4009 7418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 194DEG 14KT 3998 7440

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MLB