Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
428 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will meander across northern New England and
southeastern Canada through at least Thursday. A cold front will
move across the area through this evening, with several weaker
surface troughs through the rest of the week. This low will begin
moving to the northeast Friday and away from the area, before high
pressure moves to our south later Friday into Saturday. A cold front
is then expected to move toward the area later Sunday before it
stalls as an area of low pressure develops on the boundary and moves
toward the Great Lakes, then another develops and moves toward
the Mid Atlantic region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to push south
and east across the region this afternoon as a cold front moves
through late this afternoon and this evening. A few
thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and hail.
Furthermore, any lightning that may strike a dry location that
has not received any rain could spark a fire due to very dry
conditions across the region today. Thunderstorms will
gradually diminish this evening. A Red Flag Warning remains
in effect through 8PM tonight for critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and early evening. Any fires that
develop may quickly get out of control.

Another aspect of the forecast today has been the haze and smoke
plumes from the raging wildfires in Quebec. Satellite imagery
shows a very thick plume has already arrived in Mount Pocono
and northwest New Jersey and continues to push south and east
across eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.
Visibilities within this plume have dropped below 2 miles in
many locations and significantly reduced air quality. Avoid
strenuous outdoor activity and prolonged exposure to the heavy
smoke and haze this afternoon and evening.

Overnight, clouds and precip will clear out, but haze will
likely linger, either obscuring the nighttime skies or even
remaining an air quality concern. Lows will reach the low to mid
50s with mid 40s across our higher elevations.

Air quality concerns continue Wednesday with an Air Quality
Alert in place for NJ, DE, eastern PA, and the eastern shores of
Maryland. The smoke and haze will continue to funnel down across
the Northeast from Quebec and result in unhealthy air quality.
RAP/HRRR near surface smoke guidance continues to show high
concentrations of smoke and haze at the surface throughout the
day, with the worst currently forecasted Wednesday afternoon and
evening. High temperatures should reach the upper 70s, though
thick haze and smoke may hinder daytime heating and keep
temperatures on the cooler side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to pinwheel
across northern New England and southeast Canada through at least
Thursday night. Several short waves/vorticity impulses embedded in
the long wave trough aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and
northeast states, along with several surface troughs. With limited
moisture, only small chances (20-30 percent), for showers or
thunderstorms are expected, mainly during the afternoon as daytime
instability develops. Temperatures will remain near or a few degrees
below normal due to the persistent trough aloft through Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By Friday and Friday night, the persistent low pressure system aloft
across northern New England and southeast Canada begins to move to
the northeast and lose its grip on the area. The flow aloft will
shift from northwesterly on Friday, to more zonal over the weekend,
before another trough approaches later Sunday into early next week,
turning the flow aloft southwest.

At the surface, high pressure shifts from the midwest states/Ohio
River Valley area on Friday, to the southeastern states and offshore
by Saturday and Saturday night. On Friday, precipitation chances have
increased as a stronger short wave/vorticity impulse is forecast to
move across the area as the trough aloft pulls away from the area.
Any showers/thunderstorms should wane quickly around sunset as
daytime instability diminishes and the short wave moves to the east.

Saturday is expected to be dry for all areas as high pressure at the
surface and zonal flow aloft keep the area precipitation free.

As we move into the Sunday into Monday time period, a frontal system
is forecast to move toward the area and stall as it approaches. As
it does so, an area of low pressure will develop to our west and
lift into the Great Lakes region through Sunday into Sunday, before
a second develops to our southwest and moves into the area Monday
into Monday night. There will be increasing moisture associated with
this system as the flow at the surface and aloft turn more toward
the southwest. With multiple short wave/vorticity impulse moving
across the area, this could lead to several periods of much needed
measurable precipitation for many places across the area during the
Sunday through Monday time period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today (until 00Z Wed)...Mainly VFR, although haze and
smoke from Canadian wildfires may briefly reduce visibility to
MVFR at times. SCT to BKN clouds the rest of this afternoon.
Latest radar shows isolated showers and thunderstorms are
developing across the Pocono Plateau moving south and east,
however coverage of this activity is expected to remain low
enough to preclude a TAF mention at this time. The main threats
with any convection will be lightning and briefly reduced
visibility. Northwest winds 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts.
High confidence overall, but low confidence on any restrictions
in haze.

Tonight...Mainly VFR with generally clearing skies. However, haze
may still reduce visibility to near MVFR at times. North diminishing
to northwest winds 5-10 kts. High confidence overall.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with mid to high clouds, but haze and
smoke will be a concern once again. Visibilities will generally
hover around 6SM, but MVFR restrictions may occur at times.
Northwest winds around 10 kts decreasing to 5 knots or less at
night. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Friday...Generally VFR. Chance of showers or
thunderstorms which may briefly lower conditions, mainly Wednesday
afternoon. West to northwest winds 5-10 knots, with gusts 15-20
knots during the day. High confidence except chance of precipitation.

Friday night-Sunday...Generally VFR. West to northwest winds 5-10
knots with gusts 15-20 knots during the day Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are expected through Wednesday. There is
a potential for some isolated showers or thunderstorms this
evening. Some storms may result in strong wind gusts and hail.
Winds shift northwest tonight and diminishing to around 5-10
kts. Hazy conditions are expected from Canadian wildfires
through Wednesday. NW winds 5-10 kts turn southerly in the
afternoon. Seas remain around 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Sunday...Winds and waves are expected to remain
below advisory levels for the remainder of the week into Saturday,
although winds may gust 15-20 knots at times.

Rip Currents...

Today and Wednesday...There is a LOW risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware
beaches. Northwest winds will become west to southwesterly in
the afternoon around 15 knots on Tuesday. Expect continued off
shore flow on Wednesday, but speeds are expected to be lower.
Breaking waves will be around 2-3 feet in the surf zone with a
medium 7-8 second period easterly swell. Given the off shore
flow and lessening east swell, continue to forecast a low risk
both days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Summary: Low daytime relative humidity near 30% or less is forecast
to persist through Thursday along with poor overnight humidity
recovery. Fuel moistures are very low, with much of the region
having not experienced a widespread wetting rainfall in over 5
weeks. This will continue to result in fire weather concerns for the
next couple days.

Details: For the rest of today, critical fire weather
conditions are occuring across southeastern Pennsylvania and
New Jersey. Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8PM. A
chance of isolated dry thunderstorms continues into the evening.
West to northwest winds will be sustained around 10-15 mph with
frequent gusts around 20-25 mph.

For Wednesday and Thursday, relative humidity will continue to fall
to around 30% across the area, although winds will be notably less
around 10 mph and less gusty during the daytime hours. Overnight
humidity recovery will be poor both tonight and Wednesday night,
with forecast maximum relative humidity values around 55-65%. A
northwest breeze around 5-10 mph will also persist during the
overnight periods as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Advisories from earlier this morning have all been
expired/cancelled as high tide has passed and coastal flood
inundation has largely diminished early this morning. Some
spotty minor flooding may linger in tidal tributaries and back
bays.

Another round of widespread minor coastal flooding is forecast
for tonight along much of the Atlantic Ocean coasts of Delaware
and New Jersey and along the back bays and tributaries for the
Little Assawoman Bay and Barnegat Bay. This round is mainly the
result of continued onshore ocean swell and still relatively
elevated astronomical tides. Therefore, Coastal Flood
Advisories are now in effect beginning at 9 PM this evening for
Ocean County south to Cape May County in New Jersey as well as
Sussex County in Delaware.

Elsewhere, along the Raritan Bay, the coasts of Monmouth
County in New Jersey, the Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware
River, spotty minor to minor coastal flooding is forecast. The
greatest potential for widespread minor coastal flooding amongst
these areas is along the tidal Delaware River. However, as
tides along the Delaware River this morning came in lower than
previously forecast, the confidence in widespread coastal
flooding occurring tonight is relatively low. Therefore,
advisories were held off for now but may still be needed.

Coastal flooding is not expected along the Eastern Shore of the
Chesapeake Bay in Maryland.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Wednesday for NJZ020-022>027.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Wednesday for DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Robertson
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Robertson
LONG TERM...Robertson
AVIATION...MJL/Robertson
MARINE...Robertson
FIRE WEATHER...NWS PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NWS PHI

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
406 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

PAZ060-062030-
Berks PA-
406 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Berks
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Spring Ridge, or near Reading, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Reading, Wyomissing, Birdsboro, Sinking Spring, Laureldale,
Wernersville, Leesport, New Morgan, Fairview Hgts, Spring Ridge,
Shillington, West Reading, Mount Penn, Mohnton, Kenhorst, St.
Lawrence, Wyomissing Hills, West Lawn, Lorane and Reiffton.

This includes the following highways...
 Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 296 and 299.
 Interstate 176 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 1 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 7592 4025 7569 4014 7587 4024 7604
      4040 7612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 331DEG 25KT 4039 7598

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
415 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-062045-
Kent DE-New Castle DE-Queen Anne's MD-Kent MD-
415 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central New
Castle, central Kent, northeastern Queen Anne's and east central Kent
Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Delaney Corner, or 12 miles northwest of Dover, moving southeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Smyrna, Milford, Camden, Clayton, Cheswold, Bowers, Woodside,
Viola, Hartly, Rising Sun-Lebanon, Hazlettville, Delaney Corner,
Dover Base Housing, Dover Speedway, Green Spring, Rising Sun,
Wyoming, Felton and Frederica.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 7584 3936 7570 3911 7524 3891 7546
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 309DEG 32KT 3925 7571

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPS

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