Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Bumped pops up this afternoon, particularly across SEMO. Storms
ongoing should translate south nudged by an advancing cold pool.
Additional development is possible further east over far SRN IL
and WRN KY this afternoon. Isolated pulse severe cells are
possible given 1500-2000 J/kg and sfc-700mb theta-e differences of
about 25-30,  but 0-6km organizing shear is quite weak.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Very typical summer time pattern set up remains in place. We're
still in northwest flow aloft with the main trof axis still just to
our east and upper level ridging over the southwest CONUS which is
starting to move over the Plains. A midlevel disturbance that will
move through today could pop off a few storms this afternoon and
evening. If you believe the HRRR a small MCS could even move through
SEMO. Most models have at least something popping up this
afternoon/evening. With about 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, 25 kts of
bulk shear, and steep low and mid level lapse rates, wouldn't be
surprised if a few storms could manage severe criteria. This is in
line with SPC's thinking for the Marginal Risk that is across the
area today.

Even with cloud cover highs should still make it into the lower 90s
with continued southwest flow at the sfc and dew points climbing
back up into the 70s.

Tomorrow will be similar with highs in the lower 90s and a mid level
perturbation sliding through that could spur a few afternoon
storms. The Euro is a little more aggressive on that possibility
than other model solutions, so kept PoPs on the lighter side for
now especially given the overall subsidence present. Also
expecting continued south and southwest flow at the sfc that will
be a little breezier over SEMO with 70s dew points once again.

Aloft the ridge of high pressure edges east into our region from the
Plains on Wednesday. This will help nudge highs a little higher into
the mid 90s. However, a shortwave trof passing to our north could
make for a little more cloud cover, which could mitigate highs a
touch. This trof will also tighten the sfc pressure gradient and
make for a breezier day on Wednesday with warm southerly flow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Highs warm up slightly further on Thursday and Friday, though still
solidly in the mid 90s with breezy conditions again on Thursday.
Highs might be slightly overdone though with a shortwave trof axis
deepening just to our east which could provide slightly more cloud
cover.

Expecting pretty weak flow aloft through the weekend as the ridge
flattens and we transition into more quasi zonal flow. Though the
NBM is dry it is a typical summer time pattern and with enough
general moisture around the afternoon instability means we could
still possibly pop off a few diurnal storms in the afternoons,
though there is not enough confidence at this point to include
definitive PoPs and it's too difficult to nail down a location
either for said PoPs. The heat hangs around through the end of the
weekend and into the start of next week with highs continuing to be
in the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Convection over SEMO will continue to the south at its current
rate but additional development is possible further east in the
afternoon heat, particularly for CGI/PAH. Smaller risk for
afternoon storms elsewhere but too low for TAF mention. Current
position of pooled moisture makes fog more likely tonight at sites
like MVN/OWB/EVV and vicinity but will need to watch all sites for
potential.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...JGG
SHORT TERM...SHAWKEY
LONG TERM...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...JGG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
128 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

MOZ087-111-241915-
Cape Girardeau MO-Scott MO-
128 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Scott
and southeastern Cape Girardeau Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chaffee, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Oran and Cape Girardeau Airport around 140 PM CDT.
  Scott City and Kelso around 145 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Morley and Benton.

This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 81 and 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 8976 3714 8972 3715 8972 3716 8970
      3718 8970 3720 8968 3720 8965 3722 8965
      3727 8962 3728 8952 3725 8949 3725 8946
      3720 8946 3711 8951 3703 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 293DEG 15KT 3716 8967

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
132 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

MOZ087-111-241845-
Cape Girardeau MO-Scott MO-
132 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Scott
and south central Cape Girardeau Counties through 145 PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cape Girardeau Airport to near Delta.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Cape Girardeau Airport around 135 PM CDT.
  Scott City and Kelso around 145 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 88 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 8948 3713 8964 3723 8976 3728 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 284DEG 18KT 3724 8961 3721 8970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ATL