Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
319 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

Yet another stormy day today will be the main weather concern for
the week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across
much of the Quad State (mainly SEMO, Southern Illinois, and the
Evansville Tri-State), progressing northeastward. Strong to severe
storms are expected and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch covers the
entire CWA until 8pm central. Development this afternoon is
likely to continue to be along an axis near the Ohio River, then
drift south into Western Kentucky for the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Temperatures today have reached the mid-80s in
northern areas to near 90 elsewhere. Thunderstorm downdrafts and
outflow boundaries, along with increased cloud cover, will limit
further rises in temperature this afternoon.

Dew points are in the 70s across the Quad State, slightly
overperforming the forecast, resulting in plenty of moisture for
convection to tap into. MLCAPE of around 3000 and DCAPE just over
1000 will produce a damaging wind threat, which is highlighted in
the Enhanced Risk over Western Kentucky. Large hail is a
consideration, particularly earlier in the event. Shear is
adequate for convection, but relatively meager; the tornado threat
is low. With storms progressing northeastward with subsequent
development behind the initial storms, the potential for training
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates could result in some
flooding issues despite the relatively quick storm motion. This is
especially the case in areas that received heavy rain in previous
days such as Southwest Indiana, part of which is in a slight risk
ERO today.

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Quad State,
providing a line for storm development this afternoon and evening.
Low pressure is located further north of the CWA and an upper
trough is approaching, expected to move through this evening into
tonight. Evening storm activity should primarily be located in
Western Kentucky, exiting the Quad State by midnight.

Dry conditions are expected for Monday as the trough moves east of
the Quad State. The cold front stalls just to the southeast,
resulting in seasonable temperatures with highs near 90, while
lows remain in the upper 60s to near 70. The sky brings a few
fireworks for Independence Day as some but not all models lift the
front back into the area. Scattered showers and isolated storms
are possible, mainly in the afternoon hours, diminishing in the
evening. With the return of the frontal boundary, temperatures
lift slightly with highs in the lower half of the 90s and heat
index values peaking in the 95-100 range.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

Active weather continues for the latter half of the week. With the
stalled out boundary remaining over the Quad State, thunderstorms
remain possible on Wednesday. A stronger cold front advances from
the Upper Midwest, with models disagreeing on timing. The GFS is
fastest with arrival Wednesday evening, while ensemble spread
leans towards Thursday morning. A D4 slight risk of severe weather
covers part of SEMO with the arrival of the front. This system
will need to be monitored as we move closer to see whether strong
to severe storms pose a problem, potentially Thursday afternoon
which has the highest PoPs in the NBM.

Once again, the frontal boundary is likely to stall out south of
the forecast area Friday and Saturday resulting in lingering
precip chances for now with high pressure over the Great Lakes.
Temperatures lean towards their coolest for the week, primarily in
the upper half of the 80s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

Showers and storms are expected through the afternoon hours,
mainly along an axis near the Ohio River, shifting to Western
Kentucky for late afternoon and the early evening. Some of these
storms will be severe with damaging winds. MVFR cigs are unlikely
to lower further. Vsby drops are expected with storms. Non-
thunderstorm winds will gust to around 17-20 kts out of the
southwest, becoming light tonight. Cloud cover diminishes tonight
with mostly clear skies tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATL
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...ATL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031930-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
222 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 /322 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 8pm central
this evening for the Quad State region.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are developing this afternoon
through early tonight. Some of these storms will be severe, with
damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two all possible. The
greatest risk of severe weather will be across southwest Indiana,
southern Illinois, the Missouri Bootheel, and western Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday.
The activity is expected to be isolated Tuesday and Wednesday,
more numerous on Thursday, and isolated on Friday and Saturday.
Heavy rain and lightning will be the primary hazards, but periods
of stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of severe weather hazards and flooding issues are
appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
243 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Herrin             37.79N 89.02W
07/02/2023                   Williamson         IL   Public

            Report from mPING: tree limbs broken; Power
            poles broken.

&&

SGE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Norris City             37.98N 88.33W
07/02/2023                   White              IL   Public

            Trees and tree limbs down, damage to gate.

&&

SGE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
303 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Norris City             37.98N 88.33W
07/02/2023                   White              IL   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            Norris City. Trees and tree limbs down,
            damage to gate. estimated 65 mph.

&&

SGE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
309 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW West Frankfort     37.89N 88.94W
07/02/2023                   Franklin           IL   Public

            Large branches down. One shoved into the
            ground. 65 mph estimated wind speed.

&&

SGE

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