Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
614 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

-Strong to severe storms are expected to increase in coverage this
 afternoon and evening

-Storms may upscale into a line with locally enhanced damaging
 wind potential through this evening

A large MCS has formed just south of the CWA in TN from convection
that ran along the KY/TN border. This appears to be associated
with a weak mid/upper level impulse as convection behind it isn't
doing as well. The local convection and things just to the south
of the CWA have not stayed organized and are in an area of
relatively weaker deep layer flow.

Additional convection is developing over southwest and is in
better shear closer to the shortwave trough. Cloud cover from
ongoing convection has limited our heating a bit in a few areas
but LAPS and SPC mesoanalysis still show 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over SEMO/SRN IL and WKY with growing CAPE in SWIN behind this
mornings convection. A pretty clear gradient still exists from
about Mt. Vernon to Bowling Green, KY behind previous convection.

As the large scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
shortwave over the next few hours expect that convection will
increase. Given the unstable environment and 30-40 kts of deep
layer shear severe storms seem pretty likely. Straight hodographs
support initially splitting cells but an upscale into a line-
segment/QLCS system appears likely. Low level shear isn't
especially favorable for mesovorticies and tornadoes but will need
to watch for any boundary interactions from previous convection
that could enhance local tornado potential.

Coverage of storms today will likely determine how this evening
plays out, as we don't get a synoptic scale clearing front
overnight. The humid and unstable airmass lags behind through
early Sunday and the GFS timing generates another round of
afternoon storms over the eastern half of the area. If we get a
more sweeping MCS I think coverage would be a bit more limited
tomorrow.

After that we get a more pronounced front late Sunday which should
lead to drier and slightly less humid conditions Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

We return to southerly return flow Tuesday and afternoon shower
and storm chances return both Tuesday and Wednesday. Shear will be
modest but some pulse afternoon convection appears likely. The
ECMWF is a little less aggressive with the QPF and has more
marginal thermodynamics.

Wednesday into Thursday both ECMWF/GFS bring a trough and
associated front to the area. Looks like another 12-24 hours of
pretty unsettled weather, although as frontal timing agreement
improves we may be able to narrow that down a little bit. Severe
weather appears possible given the instability and shear
parameters apparent on the synoptic scale.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

MVFR to at times IFR restrictions are possible with
VSBYS/potentially with CIGS as scattered strong convection
impacts the terminals this evening. Activity will wane and
conditions may improve to VFR from late tonight into the first
half of the day tmrw, but expect another flare-up of strong afternoon
convection to similarly deteriorate CIGS/VSBYS during the
planning phase of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ084-088-092>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     109>112-114.

IN...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT /4 AM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-
     086>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>006.

     Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Sunday for KYZ018-019.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
712 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-021000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
712 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 /812 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9 PM CDT.
Refer to the Watch for severe storm hazards and details.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through 3 AM CDT for portions of
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Refer to the Watch for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms is likely Sunday, especially in
the afternoon. Isolated severe storms with damaging winds and
large hail are possible.

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms Monday through Friday.
The activity is expected to be isolated Monday through Wednesday
before becoming more numerous Thursday into Friday. Heavy rain
and lightning will be the primary hazards, but periods of stronger
storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports for ongoing severe weather are appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
657 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Poseyville              38.17N 87.79W
07/01/2023  E70 MPH          Posey              IN   Trained Spotter

&&

JGG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>