Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
326 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

The main concern in the near term remains the flash flood event
ongoing and/or developing across portions of the forecast area,
in particular the Purchase area of western Kentucky and possibly
back into far southern Illinois. Numerous thunderstorms continue
to develop on the northern periphery of a stationary frontal
boundary draped across far southeast Missouri and into northwest
Tennessee, where strong moisture transport exists along with
precipitable water values of up to 2.25 inches. Very heavy
rainfall rates have been observed, with some in excess of 2 to 3
inches per hour.

Consequently, the potential for significant, life-threatening
flooding will continue in focused locations (such as the zone from
Bardwell to Wingo and Fancy Farm) that have already received 4 to
6 inches of rain, with another 2 to 4 inches possible into early
morning. Will keep the Flood Watch in place across southeast
Missouri, western Kentucky, and far southern Illinois through 15Z.
Short term models bring most of the rain to an end by mid morning,
but a few showers could linger into late morning as well.

Once the precipitation comes to an end, the main concern through
the remainder of the day will be the heat and humidity. High
temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky to the middle 90s in much
of southeast Missouri. With dew points forecast in the middle 70s,
peak heat index values will likely equal or exceed the 105 degree
mark across portions of southeast Missouri. In collaboration with
WFO's Springfield and Memphis, we will issue a Heat Advisory for a
portion of southeast Missouri along and south of a line from Van
Buren to Dexter to New Madrid, in addition to Fulton County
Kentucky. An isolated thunderstorm can't completely be ruled out
this afternoon, but it would seem that much of the area should be
capped in the wake of the morning convection.

The active pattern will continue tonight through at least Thursday
night as ripples of energy traverse the northwest flow pattern
between an upper level ridge over the western U.S. and the upper
level trough across the eastern U.S. Will maintain a chance of
showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thursday night as models
are in fairly decent agreement. A few severe storms will remain
possible as most of the area is outlooked in a marginal risk for
severe weather through Thursday night. In addition, localized
flooding cannot be ruled out, with much of the area outlooked in
a marginal to slight risk in WPC's Days 1-3 Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks. By Friday, a cold front is forecast to begin to push
south of the region, eventually bringing drier air into the region
by the weekend. Some models, such as the 00Z GFS, hint at a final
wave of energy that keeps the chance of precipitation into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

In the wake of the frontal passage, dry conditions should prevail
over much of the weekend as high pressure takes hold. Highs over
the weekend are forecast to drop back into the middle to upper
80s, with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s. Dew points
will drop back into the lower 60s, providing a break from the
humidity.

Early next week, the upper level pattern will amplify as the upper
high expands eastward into the southern Plains. This will bring a
return to the heat and humidity as highs climb back above the 90
degree mark. It's also possible that at least some isolated
thunderstorm activity will be possible by Monday and Tuesday, but
model agreement isn't good enough at this point to include a
mention in the forecast just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Convection has formed in the CGI/PAH area and may impact those
terminals or be in close vicinity for the next several hours. For
now not expecting the OWB/EVV terminals to be impacted but will
monitor closely. MVN will likely get in on the action in the next
few hours. Currently expecting some sweep of convection after dawn
and some clearing leading to reasonably good flying conditions for
the remainder of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for ILZ084>094.

MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ107>110-114.

IN...None.
KY...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KYZ001.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...JGG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
402 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
402 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 /502 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of southeast Missouri,
western Kentucky, and far southern Illinois through 10 AM.
Training thunderstorms will continue to produce heavy rain and the
potential for flash flooding through early morning. Localized
significant flash flooding will remain possible where repeat
rounds of heavy rain fall.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of southeast
Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky through 10 AM.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in and close to the
watch area, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The potential for thunderstorms, a few locally strong to severe,
and localized flooding will continue into Thursday and possibly
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Your reports of any flooding, rainfall amounts, storm damage, or
hail are encouraged.

RJP

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