Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
326 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

The main concern in the near term remains the flash flood event
ongoing and/or developing across portions of the forecast area,
in particular the Purchase area of western Kentucky and possibly
back into far southern Illinois. Numerous thunderstorms continue
to develop on the northern periphery of a stationary frontal
boundary draped across far southeast Missouri and into northwest
Tennessee, where strong moisture transport exists along with
precipitable water values of up to 2.25 inches. Very heavy
rainfall rates have been observed, with some in excess of 2 to 3
inches per hour.

Consequently, the potential for significant, life-threatening
flooding will continue in focused locations (such as the zone from
Bardwell to Wingo and Fancy Farm) that have already received 4 to
6 inches of rain, with another 2 to 4 inches possible into early
morning. Will keep the Flood Watch in place across southeast
Missouri, western Kentucky, and far southern Illinois through 15Z.
Short term models bring most of the rain to an end by mid morning,
but a few showers could linger into late morning as well.

Once the precipitation comes to an end, the main concern through
the remainder of the day will be the heat and humidity. High
temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky to the middle 90s in much
of southeast Missouri. With dew points forecast in the middle 70s,
peak heat index values will likely equal or exceed the 105 degree
mark across portions of southeast Missouri. In collaboration with
WFO's Springfield and Memphis, we will issue a Heat Advisory for a
portion of southeast Missouri along and south of a line from Van
Buren to Dexter to New Madrid, in addition to Fulton County
Kentucky. An isolated thunderstorm can't completely be ruled out
this afternoon, but it would seem that much of the area should be
capped in the wake of the morning convection.

The active pattern will continue tonight through at least Thursday
night as ripples of energy traverse the northwest flow pattern
between an upper level ridge over the western U.S. and the upper
level trough across the eastern U.S. Will maintain a chance of
showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thursday night as models
are in fairly decent agreement. A few severe storms will remain
possible as most of the area is outlooked in a marginal risk for
severe weather through Thursday night. In addition, localized
flooding cannot be ruled out, with much of the area outlooked in
a marginal to slight risk in WPC's Days 1-3 Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks. By Friday, a cold front is forecast to begin to push
south of the region, eventually bringing drier air into the region
by the weekend. Some models, such as the 00Z GFS, hint at a final
wave of energy that keeps the chance of precipitation into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

In the wake of the frontal passage, dry conditions should prevail
over much of the weekend as high pressure takes hold. Highs over
the weekend are forecast to drop back into the middle to upper
80s, with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s. Dew points
will drop back into the lower 60s, providing a break from the
humidity.

Early next week, the upper level pattern will amplify as the upper
high expands eastward into the southern Plains. This will bring a
return to the heat and humidity as highs climb back above the 90
degree mark. It's also possible that at least some isolated
thunderstorm activity will be possible by Monday and Tuesday, but
model agreement isn't good enough at this point to include a
mention in the forecast just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Convection has formed in the CGI/PAH area and may impact those
terminals or be in close vicinity for the next several hours. For
now not expecting the OWB/EVV terminals to be impacted but will
monitor closely. MVN will likely get in on the action in the next
few hours. Currently expecting some sweep of convection after dawn
and some clearing leading to reasonably good flying conditions for
the remainder of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for ILZ084>094.

MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ107>110-114.

IN...None.
KY...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KYZ001.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...JGG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
817 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-200130-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
817 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 /917 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A heavy rainfall scenario is possible tonight with storms
training over the same area. A severe storm or two is possible
with large hail the main threat. Flash flooding is possible and a
flash flood watch is in effect for much of southeast Missouri,
western Kentucky, and parts of southern Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A strong to severe storm is possible Wednesday morning. Additional
severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of flooding or rainfall amounts overnight are
appreciated along with any storm damage or hail.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
110 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

KYZ006-190700-
Graves KY-
110 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Graves
County through 200 AM CDT...

At 109 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fulgham, or 8 miles southwest of Mayfield, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Sedalia and Lynnville.

This includes Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 9 and
22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 8882 3674 8882 3677 8881 3670 8849
      3650 8849 3650 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0609Z 288DEG 24KT 3666 8876

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DRS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
218 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     Rain             Wingo                   36.64N 88.74W
07/19/2023  M4.86 inch       Graves             KY   Mesonet

            Rainfall occurred between midnight and 215
            am.

&&

KEC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
241 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Lynnville         36.55N 88.62W
07/19/2023                   Graves             KY   Trained Spotter

            8 inch in diameter tree blocking highway 94
            about 1.5 miles southwest of Cuba, KY.

&&

KEC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
328 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sedalia                 36.64N 88.61W
07/19/2023                   Graves             KY   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reports widespread wind damage in
            Sedalia, estimates 70-80 mph gusts.

&&

JGG