Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Key Messages:

1. The greatest risk for severe weather will be between 5 to 10 PM
this evening. The biggest concern is for damaging winds, especially
across portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky where
conditions will be the most favorable. A few isolated tornadoes also
remain possible with the strongest storms.

2. Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area
through late tonight. The risk for flooding is expected to ramp up
through this evening as thunderstorms develop. Forecast remains on
track for storm totals between 2 to 4 inches of rain. Locally up to
5 inches is possible where thunderstorms repeat over the same
location.

3. Wind Advisory is now in effect for southwest Indiana from 3 AM to
Noon Saturday. Southwest winds between 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to
40 mph are expected as a cold front moves through the region early
Saturday morning.

Technical Details:

Today has been rather wet as the latest visible satellite image
shows breaks in the clouds beginning to move across the CWA border
from AR/TN as a warm front begins to push north. A brief lull in
pcpn late this afternoon will be just enough to recharge the
atmosphere setting the stage for a QLCS that will transverse across
the FA through Friday night from west to east. SPC Mesoanalysis
shows a ribbon of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE moving into southeast
Missouri and Western Kentucky by 0z Saturday where SPC has an
enhanced risk for severe weather. Although there is a bit of
uncertainty in how much of this instability will become surface
based with some difference in the latest CAMs, the latest trends are
becoming a little more concerning. The sfc-1 km shear ramps up to 40
kts this evening with backed winds at the sfc as sfc low pressure
deepens by 5 to 10 mb near our FA with a trailing cold front. The
deep layer shear and upper level dynamics will likely be enough to
overcome the meager instability as the CAMs are indicating surging
bowing segments with a QLCS.

The greatest risk for severe weather will be between 5 to 10 PM when
damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes are possible. As the
event unfolds, a transition to more of a flooding concern is likely
as 850 mb moisture and theta-e is transported into the lower Ohio
Valley. Training storms are likely along the frontal boundary before
pcpn begins to taper off to lingering showers by 6z Saturday. As
fropa occurs with the aformentioned cold front, southwest winds
between 15 to 25 mph are expected with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph. The
greatest synoptic winds will be across the Evansville tri-state
where the pressure gradient will be the tightest from the area of
low pressure that will deepen to 985 mb over the Great Lakes region
on Saturday. For this reason, have gone ahead and issued a Wind
Advisory for all of southwest Indiana from 8 to 17z Saturday for
wind gusts up to 40 mph.

For the rest of the weekend, westerly winds will turn more calm
Saturday afternoon as sfc low pressure continues to move away across
Quebec. Although another disturbance will be quick to arrive Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, NBM's slight chance to chance PoPs seem
reasonable as QPF looks to be extremely light.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

A progressive mid tropospheric flow pattern is anticipated in the
long term, with generally quiet weather through about Wednesday.
After Wednesday, yet another West Coast system will progress east
and deepen over the Rockies Thursday. Warm moist advection and minor
waves ahead of the trof should trigger some showers and
thunderstorms by Thursday. Chances should increase further Thursday
night into Friday as a boundary moves into the area. Overall, the
GFS and ECMWF are similar with only subtle differences. Given the
overall ensemble support, we did not migrate too far from the NBM.
Temperatures through the period will not be too far from normal. We
will monitor model trends. While it is a fairly impressive trof that
will come out of the west U.S. it may take on more of a positive
tilt with time, and eventually separate the better forcing (north)
from favorable thermodynamics (farther south) by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

MVFR/IFR cigs are in store through this evening as a warm front
lifts back north with an approaching cold front from the west.
Visbys will be MVFR with intervals of pcpn, but can fall to IFR
with +TSRA. Made minor adjustments to the TEMPO mention that
covers the potential for strong thunderstorms this evening as
timing looks to be a little quicker. Easterly winds today will
become southwest tonight after fropa when wind gusts above 25 to
30 kts will become possible outside of thunderstorms. While IFR
visbys are expected behind the front, MVFR cigs will prevail
through Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Saturday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM CDT /4 AM EDT/ to noon CDT /1 PM EDT/
     Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
252 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
252 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 /352 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms across the entire region
into this evening between 5 to 10 PM. This includes an enhanced risk
of severe storms over far southeast Missouri and southwest Kentucky.
Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the primary potential
hazards with any strong to severe storms that develop. Large hail is
also a possible severe storm hazard.

Flooding heavy rains will continue as a hazard as well. Refer to the
Flood Watch, Warnings, and Statements, for more details.

Gusty winds outside of thunderstorms may reach up to 40 mph late
tonight, especially across southwest Indiana. Refer to the Wind
Advisory for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Wind gusts up to 40 mph remain possible across southwest Indiana
Saturday morning. Refer to the Wind Advisory for more details.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. A few
strong storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
544 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PIEDMONT                37.15N 90.70W
03/24/2023                   WAYNE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED ACROSS WAYNE
            COUNTY. ST. FRANCIS RIVER IS OUT OF ITS
            BANKS NEAR PATTERSON.

&&

DWS