Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Convective outflow helped pushed the surface boundary into the
southern tier of the FA, with active convection occurring in
elevated fashion generally on its overrun/cool side of the
boundary. Radar estimates and obs report pockets of heavy
rainfall already having produced 1-2 inches within a swath across
our northern tier counties, as anticipated.

Later today, this boundary will begin to lift northward again as a
warm front, in response to the approach of the parent system. By
peak heating, a tongue of lower 70s temps intersecting with dew
points climbing into the lower 60s will expand across the southern
third of the FA, just in time for the approaching cold front.
Both lower and mid level winds begin to crank up as the parent
trof drives the cold front into the MS River Valley this evening.
The models deepen the surface low about 5 MB upon this action,
which should help overcome/assist what is otherwise low MUCAPE in
the lower 1KM. CAM modeling suggests several linear strong to
severe thunderstorm tracks break out in response, and hodographic
curvature/helicity/shear profiles support tornadoes/damaging
winds. The best window for the strongest convection appears to be
about 22-04z/23-05z, with the best/peak overlay of helicity/CAPE
in the first half of that window. Highest severe chances remain to
the south and as the night goes on, we eventually transition to
more strictly a heavy rain chance with the front making its
passage late/overnight.

The blend has consistently lingered a chance of showers/storms in
our northeast into early Saturday, and does so again with the 00Z
output. This is accepted and then drier relative air overtakes the
column for the bulk of the weekend as the system more fully
departs. Worth mention is the strong/severe storm then heavy rain
hazard translates to gradient winds/gusts just shy of Advisory
criteria from late Friday night through the first half of
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

A quasi-zonal flow pattern pushes some weak embedded wave/energy
across the FA again early next week, with small rain chances
attendant to it now modeled strictly for Sunday night. Afterward,
high pressure builds in/moves across the region at the surface,
while upper heights rise in teleconnected response to another big
storm hitting/digging along the West Coast. This results in a dry
first half of the work week with seasonally mild temps in the
upper 50s and 60s. Rain chances finally make a reappearance by day
7 as the aforementioned West Coast trof makes headway into the
CONUS interior, and return flow from the eastward translated high
begins to push some moisture into the area again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

MVFR/IFR cigs are in store through this evening as a warm front
lifts back north with an approaching cold front from the west.
Visbys will be MVFR with intervals of pcpn, but can fall to IFR
with +TSRA. Made minor adjustments to the TEMPO mention that
covers the potential for strong thunderstorms this evening as
timing looks to be a little quicker. Easterly winds today will
become southwest tonight after fropa when wind gusts above 25 to
30 kts will become possible outside of thunderstorms. While IFR
visbys are expected behind the front, MVFR cigs will prevail
through Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...DW
AVIATION...DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
624 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251200-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
624 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 /724 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms across the entire
region, especially late this afternoon and evening. This includes
an enhanced risk of severe storms over far southeast Missouri and
southwest Kentucky. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the
primary potential hazards with any strong to severe storms that
develop. Large hail is also a possible severe storm hazard.

Flooding heavy rains will continue as a hazard as well. Refer to
the Flood Watch, Warnings, and Statements, for more details.

Gusty winds outside of thunderstorms may reach up to 40 mph late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
915 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ENE HOPKINSVILLE      36.88N 87.38W
03/24/2023                   CHRISTIAN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO A BUILDING AT 4475 BUTLER RD EAST
            OF HOPKINSVILLE.

0228 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CREAL SPRINGS           37.62N 88.85W
03/24/2023                   WILLIAMSON         IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN, SOME OF WHICH FELL INTO
            POWER LINES.

&&

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