Severe Thunderstorm Warning 556, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023

Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring a storm complex through
early Sunday morning across our area.  Some of these storms will be
severe with up to quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts possible.
CAMs guidance expecting storms to persist for a while after sunrise
into the latter half of the morning, although not as organized due
to a weakening low-level jet as well as moving into a less unstable
environment ending as rain showers.  Although NAM is an outlier with
a slower propagating wave timing, will keep low storm POPs in
southeast Oklahoma into the early afternoon where MUCAPE values may
be sufficient for some weak convection.  Otherwise, high surface
pressure starts building in off the Central Plains resulting in
light northerly winds in the afternoon.  Diurnal heating should
develop some fair weather cumulus across our area until sundown,
although we should stay strongly capped for any new late afternoon
convection.  Although certainty is low, but with a nearly stalled
surface boundary/cold front stretched across northern Texas with an
abundance of moist unstable air in place across northeast Texas,
will keep low POPs in southeast/southcentral Oklahoma for early
Monday morning but severe storms will be unlikely.  Otherwise,
should be quiet Sunday night from any storm/severe activity coming
down from the Central High Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023

High surface pressure moves off to the east on Monday with a return
of more southeasterly winds with the stalled cold front across north
Texas to eventually start lifting as a warm front.  We'll start to
see a heating trend with the southerly flow with temperatures
starting to rise closer to average.  Expecting another mid-level
wave developing convection across both the Southern & Central High
Plains by the evening hours with northwest flow bringing it into our
area late and into the overnight hours.  Although GFS is much more
aggressive than the ECMWF, both models increase a low-level jet over
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles including our western CWA which may be
sufficient to keep storms organized as they move into our area late
in the evening and overnight. Although deep-layer shear will be
minimal, instability at moderate levels with low-level shear will be
sufficient for organized severe thunderstorms with the highest risk
so far across much of our western CWA, generally west of I-35.  The
main severe hazards for Monday night would be large damaging hail
and DCAPE values will be sufficient for damaging downburst wind
gusts. Both GFS & ECMWF in agreeance for a tongue of high
preciptable water coming up from the gulf to feed these overnight
storms, and may be sufficient for heavy rainfall near and east of I-
35, so will need to keep an eye on QPF values there for upcoming
forecasts should there be any additional flood hazards.

By mid-week, a closed high over the Southwestern U.S. starts
building a ridge into the Southern Plains as northwest flow aloft
starts becoming more zonal across the Central Plains, keeping us
storm free until Friday.  However, the rising pressure heights and
increasing southerly flow will start raising temperatures well above
average.  Triple digit heat indices may start affecting all but
northwest Oklahoma as early as Tuesday afternoon, with heat indices
near to above 110 degrees for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons as
at least heat advisories may be likely across much of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023

Complex of storms and associated period of MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions will occur overnight as these storms move south and
southeast across the area. Expect to see a return of VFR
conditions by late morning into the afternoon hours on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  66  86  71 /  80  10  10  40
Hobart OK         82  66  90  69 /  60  10  10  40
Wichita Falls TX  90  71  95  74 /  50  10   0  30
Gage OK           78  63  87  66 /  40   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     81  62  86  69 /  20   0   0  50
Durant OK         85  70  87  73 /  90  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for OKZ004-005-009>011-014>018-
     022>024-027.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
926 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
926 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A complex of storms is expected to enter western and northwestern
Oklahoma late this evening, pushing southeastward across much of
the forecast area overnight. Severe weather potential will exist
with this activity mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts.
Large hail will be possible across far northwestern Oklahoma late
Saturday evening.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall is also likely with storms during the overnight
period. Areas across northwestern into portions of western and
central Oklahoma, where heavy rainfall has occurred over the past
two days, may see flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will linger through Sunday morning across southern
Oklahoma with strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall possible.

There is also a chance for strong to severe storms Monday night
across much of the area, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
once again possible.

.Heat...
Afternoon heat indices from 105 to 110 degrees are possible
across far southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Tuesday,
with those heat indices expanding more areawide by the middle to
end of the next work week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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